luckadjusted

Week 5 2024 · October 6, 2024

Ravens at Bengals, Week 5 2024: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Bengals 41–38, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Ravens win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 4.9 points to the Ravens.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (QOT, 6:37 left): the Ravens fumbled and the Bengals recovered, worth 22 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final (OT)

Baltimore Ravens 41
Cincinnati Bengals 38

October 6, 2024 · Paycor Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −2.5

Luck index +49 Ravens lucky · −49 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 5, Bengals win 5.

  1. 1 BAL 37 CIN 13
  2. 2 BAL 34 CIN 19
  3. 3 BAL 23 CIN 13
  4. 4 BAL 30 CIN 24
  5. 5 BAL 34 CIN 32
  6. 6 BAL 54 CIN 57
  7. 7 BAL 17 CIN 23
  8. 8 BAL 31 CIN 41
  9. 9 BAL 30 CIN 46
  10. 10 BAL 27 CIN 52

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 51% of them, Bengals 49%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+12.6%
Ravens by 9–1614.8%
Ravens by 1–821.1%
Level after regulation4.5%
Bengals by 1–820.1%
Bengals by 9–1613.8%
Bengals by 17+13.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Ravens by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes even.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 56 yds made · 62% expected
  • E. McPherson, 53 yds missed · 68% expected
  • J. Tucker, 24 yds made · 100% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 92%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 13:47 The Bengals converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +12% CIN CIN: Touchdown
2 Q2 0:09 The Bengals’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedDefensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Kyle Hamilton), 0 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 7 flags in 2286 snaps before, position avg 1 per 462 +21% CIN CIN: Touchdown
3 Q3 14:20 The Bengals converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +9% CIN CIN: Touchdown
4 Q3 11:21 The Bengals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +12% CIN CIN: Touchdown
5 Q4 3:05 The Bengals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's handsFalse Start on the Bengals, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +10% BAL CIN: Punt
6 Q4 1:43 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +9% CIN BAL: Field goal
7 QOT 7:23 The Ravens converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +20% BAL BAL: Turnover
8 QOT 6:37 The Ravens fumbled and the Bengals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +22% CIN BAL: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Trent Brown (CIN T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Mike Hilton (CIN CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Sheldon Rankins (CIN DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Andrew Vorhees (BAL G), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 57% · Bengals 43%

Final margin
Ravens by 3
Luck in points
3.0 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
even
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 51% · Bengals 49% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2024 games · Ravens · Bengals

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