luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 5 2024 · October 7, 2024

Saints at Chiefs, Week 5 2024: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Saints 26–13, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 66% favorites.

Final

New Orleans Saints 13
Kansas City Chiefs 26

October 7, 2024 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −5.5

Luck index +24 Chiefs about even · −24 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 2, Chiefs win 8.

  1. 1 NO 27 KC 13
  2. 2 NO 24 KC 20
  3. 3 NO 37 KC 39
  4. 4 NO 20 KC 23
  5. 5 NO 21 KC 27
  6. 6 NO 17 KC 27
  7. 7 NO 20 KC 33
  8. 8 NO 12 KC 29
  9. 9 NO 3 KC 23
  10. 10 NO 10 KC 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 24% of them, Chiefs 76%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+2.8%
Saints by 9–166.7%
Saints by 1–814.5%
Level after regulation3.5%
Chiefs by 1–826.7%
Chiefs by 9–1621.7%
Chiefs by 17+24.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.7 points to the Chiefs: the final margin was Chiefs by 13, without the luck Chiefs by 7.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Butker, 26 yds made · 99% expected
  • H. Butker, 34 yds made · 96% expected
  • H. Butker, 28 yds made · 99% expected
  • H. Butker, 51 yds missed · 77% expected
  • H. Butker, 38 yds made · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Saints 5 for 70 yards, Chiefs 6 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:04 False Start on the Chiefs, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +0.9 pts
Q1 3:43 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards +1% KC +0.9 pts
Q1 3:28 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% KC +0.6 pts
Q2 13:36 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% NO +3.0 pts
Q2 4:36 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% NO +1.3 pts
Q3 8:06 Illegal Shift on the Saints (Chris Olave), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% KC +1.6 pts
Q3 3:55 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Paulson Adebo), 46 yards +3% KC +2.1 pts
Q3 0:22 Defensive Offside on the Chiefs (Chris Jones), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% NO +0.2 pts
Q4 12:20 Defensive Holding on the Saints (Carl Granderson), 4 yards +2% KC +0.8 pts
Q4 10:48 Unnecessary Roughness on the Chiefs (Tershawn Wharton), 15 yards +2% NO +0.9 pts
Q4 4:04 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards 0% NO +1.2 pts

Saints penalties, every game · Chiefs penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:04 The Saints threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +5% KC NO: Punt
2 Q2 13:36 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +4% NO NO: Touchdown
3 Q2 4:36 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +4% NO NO: Punt
4 Q2 1:14 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +4% KC NO: Punt
5 Q3 10:18 H. Butker missed a 51-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for him, 45 of 59 from 45+ before +7% NO KC: Turnover
6 Q3 1:54 The Chiefs were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +4% NO KC: Touchdown
7 Q3 0:22 Defensive Offside on the Chiefs (Chris Jones), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 32 flags in 4659 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 +4% NO NO: Touchdown
8 Q4 9:38 M. Tipton dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 5 catchable balls before this +6% KC NO: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Rashee Rice (KC WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Isiah Pacheco (KC RB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Charles Omenihu (KC DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Erik McCoy (NO C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Cesar Ruiz (NO C), out · 0.5 pts
  • Cesar Ruiz (NO G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Pete Werner (NO LB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 7% · Chiefs 93%

Final margin
Chiefs by 13
Luck in points
5.7 for the Chiefs
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 7.3
Replay with same day's form
Saints 24% · Chiefs 76% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2024 games · Saints · Chiefs

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