luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 5 2024 · October 3, 2024

Buccaneers at Falcons, Week 5 2024: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Buccaneers 36–30, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Falcons win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 57% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:01 left): Y. Koo made a 52-yard field goal, worth 20 points of win probability to the Falcons. The biggest single swing (Q4, 13:25 left): the Falcons converted 4th & 4.

Final (OT)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30
Atlanta Falcons 36

October 3, 2024 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −2.5

Luck index +51 Falcons lucky · −51 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 5, Falcons win 5.

  1. 1 TB 34 ATL 13
  2. 2 TB 37 ATL 23
  3. 3 TB 41 ATL 31
  4. 4 TB 33 ATL 28
  5. 5 TB 26 ATL 23
  6. 6 TB 31 ATL 33
  7. 7 TB 27 ATL 32
  8. 8 TB 19 ATL 27
  9. 9 TB 24 ATL 37
  10. 10 TB 17 ATL 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 51% of them, Falcons 49%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+12.0%
Buccaneers by 9–1615.0%
Buccaneers by 1–821.2%
Level after regulation4.8%
Falcons by 1–822.3%
Falcons by 9–1613.7%
Falcons by 17+11.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.3 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Falcons by 6, without the luck Falcons by 12.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 41 yds missed · 90% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 53 yds made · 72% expected
  • Y. Koo, 54 yds made · 74% expected
  • Y. Koo, 48 yds made · 82% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 32 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 53 yds made · 72% expected
  • Y. Koo, 54 yds blocked · 74% expected
  • Y. Koo, 52 yds made · 75% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Buccaneers 5 for 47 yards, Falcons 8 for 74 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:39 Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers (Josh Hayes), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% ATL +0.2 pts
Q2 14:54 Unnecessary Roughness on the Buccaneers (K.J. Britt), 15 yards +6% ATL +1.4 pts
Q2 14:50 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% TB +1.5 pts
Q2 13:02 Offensive Holding on the Falcons (Kyle Pitts), 10 yards +4% TB +1.0 pts
Q2 7:39 Intentional Grounding on the Falcons (Kirk Cousins), 10 yards +3% TB +0.9 pts
Q3 13:52 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% ATL +1.5 pts
Q3 10:59 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +0.5 pts
Q3 8:13 Offensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (KhaDarel Hodge), 10 yards +4% TB +1.4 pts
Q3 3:57 Unnecessary Roughness on the Falcons (JD Bertrand), 14 yards +5% TB +1.5 pts
Q4 9:23 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Lavonte David), 7 yards +7% ATL +1.3 pts
Q4 8:15 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards +6% TB +0.8 pts
Q4 1:39 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% ATL +1.4 pts
Q4 0:01 Delay of Game on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% TB +0.2 pts

Buccaneers penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 6% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q4 13:49 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +10% TB ATL: Touchdown
2 Q4 13:25 The Falcons converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +20% ATL ATL: Touchdown
3 Q4 10:28 C. McLaughlin made a 53-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 43 of 58 from 45+ before +12% TB TB: Turnover
4 Q4 6:42 D. Mooney dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 104 catchable balls before this +11% TB ATL: Missed field goal
5 Q4 6:37 Y. Koo had a 54-yard field goal blockedKicks · 74% expected for him, 50 of 61 from 45+ before +19% TB ATL: Turnover
6 Q4 2:55 The Buccaneers fumbled and the Falcons recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% ATL TB: Punt
7 Q4 0:01 The game turned hereY. Koo made a 52-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 50 of 62 from 45+ beforeDelay of Game on the Falcons, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +20% ATL ATL: Touchdown
8 OT 9:14 The Falcons converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +15% ATL ATL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Drew Dalman (ATL C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • DeMarcco Hellams (ATL SS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Troy Andersen (ATL LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Antoine Winfield Jr. (TB FS), out · 0.9 pts
  • Calijah Kancey (TB DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Luke Goedeke (TB G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jalen McMillan (TB WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jake Camarda (TB P), out · 0.3 pts
  • Evan Deckers (TB LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 4% · Falcons 96%

Final margin
Falcons by 6
Luck in points
6.2 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 12.2
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 51% · Falcons 49% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2024 games · Buccaneers · Falcons

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