Week 5 2024 · October 6, 2024
Dolphins at Patriots, Week 5 2024: who deserved to win?
The Dolphins beat the Patriots 15–10, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Dolphins.
The Dolphins won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Patriots they would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 16%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Dolphins were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:58 left): the Patriots converted 3rd & 8, worth 22 points of win probability to the Patriots.
Final
 Miami Dolphins | 15 |
|---|---|
 New England Patriots | 10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +84 Dolphins very lucky · −84 Patriots
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Dolphins win 2, Patriots win 8.
- 1 MIA 31 NE 19
- 2 MIA 13 NE 10
- 3 MIA 17 NE 20
- 4 MIA 15 NE 20
- 5 MIA 3 NE 10
- 6 MIA 20 NE 30
- 7 MIA 10 NE 24
- 8 MIA 13 NE 30
- 9 MIA 7 NE 28
- 10 MIA 0 NE 28
Your call
Did the Dolphins earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Dolphins won on an off day
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Patriots they would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 16%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
37 points apart for the Dolphins: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins offenseEPA per play gained | −0.01 | +0.09 | worse by 0.10 |
| Dolphins defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.08 | +0.08 | better by 0.17 |
| Patriots offenseEPA per play gained | −0.08 | +0.01 | worse by 0.09 |
| Patriots defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.01 | +0.07 | better by 0.08 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Dolphins win 16% of them, Patriots 84%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Dolphins by 17+ | 0.8% |
| Dolphins by 9–16 | 3.7% |
| Dolphins by 1–8 | 11.5% |
| Level after regulation | 1.2% |
| Patriots by 1–8 | 19.1% |
| Patriots by 9–16 | 26.3% |
| Patriots by 17+ | 37.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Sanders, 54 yds made · 67% expected
- J. Sanders, 41 yds missed · 88% expected
- J. Slye, 33 yds missed · 95% expected
- J. Slye, 38 yds made · 91% expected
- J. Sanders, 32 yds made · 95% expected
- J. Sanders, 47 yds made · 77% expected
Penalties: Dolphins 6 for 54 yards, Patriots 12 for 105 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:37 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Patriots, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +6% MIA +1.4 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards | +3% MIA +1.6 pts |
| Q2 13:27 | False Start on the Patriots, 4 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIA +1.0 pts |
| Q2 13:01 | Delay of Game on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MIA +0.5 pts |
| Q2 11:41 | Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% NE +2.0 pts |
| Q2 9:51 | Offensive Holding on the Patriots (Rhamondre Stevenson), 10 yards | +2% MIA +1.5 pts |
| Q2 8:43 | Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards | +1% MIA +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:32 | False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% NE +0.6 pts |
| Q3 14:03 | Offensive Holding on the Patriots (Ja'Lynn Polk), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% MIA +1.6 pts |
| Q3 13:41 | Roughing the Passer on the Dolphins (Jalen Ramsey), 15 yards | +5% NE +1.7 pts |
| Q3 11:01 | Horse Collar Tackle on the Patriots, 15 yards | +4% MIA +1.8 pts |
| Q3 9:19 | Roughing the Passer on the Patriots, 15 yards | +7% MIA +2.4 pts |
| Q4 12:00 | Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards | +3% NE +0.9 pts |
| Q4 8:20 | Offensive Holding on the Dolphins (Julian Hill), 10 yards | +7% NE +0.5 pts |
| Q4 7:50 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Christian Elliss), 5 yards | +12% MIA +1.8 pts |
| Q4 3:17 | Defensive Holding on the Dolphins (Kader Kohou), 4 yards | +1% NE +0.3 pts |
| Q4 2:15 | Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 11 yards | +4% MIA +1.0 pts |
| Q4 1:00 | False Start on the Patriots (Hunter Henry), 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% MIA +0.3 pts |
Dolphins penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Patriots’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 82%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 0:02 | J. Sanders missed a 41-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him | +7% NE | MIA: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 6:12 | J. Slye missed a 33-yard field goalKicks · 95% expected for him | +7% MIA | NE: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 9:19 | Roughing the Passer on the Patriots, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +7% MIA | MIA: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 8:01 | The Dolphins got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws | +7% MIA | MIA: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 7:50 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Christian Elliss), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 772 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 | +12% MIA | MIA: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 1:58 | The Patriots converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +22% NE | NE: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 1:03 | The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +8% MIA | NE: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 1:00 | The Patriots were stopped on 4th & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedFalse Start on the Patriots (Hunter Henry), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 16 flags in 4080 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 | +16% MIA | NE: End of game |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Kyle Dugger (NE FS), out · 0.5 pts
- Jabrill Peppers (NE SS), out · 0.5 pts
- Ja'Whaun Bentley (NE LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- David Andrews (NE C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- K.J. Osborn (NE WR), out · 0.4 pts
- Layden Robinson (NE G), out · 0.4 pts
- Christian Barmore (NE DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Alex Austin (NE CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Tua Tagovailoa (MIA QB), out (IR), replaced by t.huntley · 7.5 pts
- Jordan Poyer (MIA SS), out · 0.6 pts
- Bradley Chubb (MIA LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Jaelan Phillips (MIA LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Dolphins 39% · Patriots 61%
- Final margin
- Dolphins by 5
- Luck in points
- 2.8 for the Dolphins
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Dolphins by 2.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Dolphins 16% · Patriots 84% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2024 games · 
Dolphins · 
Patriots
More from Week 5 2024
- Buccaneers at Falcons ATL 36–30 · replay 49% for the winner
- Jets vs Vikings MIN 23–17 · replay 90% for the winner
- Ravens at Bengals BAL 41–38 · replay 53% for the winner
- Bills at Texans HOU 23–20 · replay 82% for the winner
- Panthers at Bears CHI 36–10 · replay 97% for the winner
- Browns at Commanders WAS 34–13 · replay 99% for the winner
- Colts at Jaguars JAX 37–34 · replay 14% for the winner
- Cardinals at 49ers ARI 24–23 · replay 60% for the winner
- Raiders at Broncos DEN 34–18 · replay 45% for the winner
- Packers at Rams GB 24–19 · replay 69% for the winner
- Giants at Seahawks NYG 29–20 · replay 33% for the winner
- Cowboys at Steelers DAL 20–17 · replay 83% for the winner
- Saints at Chiefs KC 26–13 · replay 76% for the winner