luckadjusted

Week 5 2024 · October 6, 2024

Dolphins at Patriots, Week 5 2024: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Patriots 15–10, but the Patriots played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 8.1 points to the Dolphins.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:00 left): the Patriots were stopped on 4th & 15, worth 27 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Miami Dolphins 15
New England Patriots 10

October 6, 2024 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −2

Luck index +68 Dolphins very lucky · −68 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 3, Patriots win 7.

  1. 1 MIA 19 NE 3
  2. 2 MIA 10 NE 3
  3. 3 MIA 3 NE 0
  4. 4 MIA 13 NE 16
  5. 5 MIA 16 NE 22
  6. 6 MIA 10 NE 18
  7. 7 MIA 10 NE 20
  8. 8 MIA 14 NE 27
  9. 9 MIA 3 NE 20
  10. 10 MIA 3 NE 25

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 32% of them, Patriots 68%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+3.4%
Dolphins by 9–168.1%
Dolphins by 1–816.0%
Level after regulation4.5%
Patriots by 1–825.1%
Patriots by 9–1622.1%
Patriots by 17+20.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Dolphins by 5. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Patriots by 0.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 54 yds made · 66% expected
  • J. Sanders, 41 yds missed · 87% expected
  • J. Slye, 33 yds missed · 94% expected
  • J. Slye, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • J. Sanders, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Sanders, 47 yds made · 77% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 82%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 0:02 J. Sanders missed 41-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for him +7% NE MIA: Punt
2 Q2 6:12 J. Slye missed 33-yard field goalKicks · 94% expected for him +7% MIA NE: Punt
3 Q2 2:08 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expectedThe Dolphins fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% NE MIA: Punt
4 Q3 9:19 Roughing the Passer on the Patriots, 15 yardsJudgment calls +7% MIA MIA: Field goal
5 Q4 7:50 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Christian Elliss), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 772 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +12% MIA MIA: Touchdown
6 Q4 1:58 The Patriots converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +22% NE NE: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 1:03 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +8% MIA NE: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 1:00 The Patriots were stopped on 4th & 153rd & 4th downs · 18% expectedFalse Start on the Patriots (Hunter Henry), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 16 flags in 4080 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 +27% MIA NE: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kyle Dugger (NE FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jabrill Peppers (NE SS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Ja'Whaun Bentley (NE LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • David Andrews (NE C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • K.J. Osborn (NE WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Layden Robinson (NE G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Christian Barmore (NE DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Alex Austin (NE CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Tua Tagovailoa (MIA QB), out (IR), replaced by t.huntley · 7.5 pts
  • Jordan Poyer (MIA SS), out · 0.6 pts
  • Bradley Chubb (MIA LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jaelan Phillips (MIA LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 21% · Patriots 79%

Final margin
Dolphins by 5
Luck in points
5.6 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 0.6
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 32% · Patriots 68% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2024 games · Dolphins · Patriots

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