luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 5 2024 · October 6, 2024

Cardinals at 49ers, Week 5 2024: who deserved to win?

The Cardinals beat the 49ers 24–23, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Cardinals win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:09 left): C. Ryland had a 45-yard field goal blocked, worth 24 points of win probability to the 49ers.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 24
San Francisco 49ers 23

October 6, 2024 · Levi's Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −7

Luck index +41 Cardinals lucky · −41 49ers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 6, 49ers win 4.

  1. 1 ARI 41 SF 16
  2. 2 ARI 24 SF 7
  3. 3 ARI 22 SF 9
  4. 4 ARI 23 SF 15
  5. 5 ARI 21 SF 16
  6. 6 ARI 23 SF 21
  7. 7 ARI 17 SF 20
  8. 8 ARI 17 SF 23
  9. 9 ARI 17 SF 28
  10. 10 ARI 10 SF 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 59% of them, 49ers 41%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+13.8%
Cardinals by 9–1616.0%
Cardinals by 1–828.4%
Level after regulation3.1%
49ers by 1–819.8%
49ers by 9–1612.6%
49ers by 17+6.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.1 points to the Cardinals: the final margin was Cardinals by 1, without the luck 49ers by 1.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Moody, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. Ryland, 30 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Moody, 20 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. Ryland, 45 yds blocked · 78% expected
  • M. Wishnowsky, 26 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. Ryland, 42 yds made · 85% expected
  • C. Ryland, 35 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cardinals 1 for 5 yards, 49ers 4 for 21 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 10:39 Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards +6% ARI +1.8 pts
Q2 6:59 Encroachment on the 49ers (Jordan Elliott), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ARI +0.4 pts
Q3 11:10 False Start on the Cardinals (Michael Wilson), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SF +0.5 pts
Q3 4:19 False Start on the 49ers (Jauan Jennings), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.5 pts
Q4 11:30 Roughing the Passer on the 49ers (Sam Okuayinonu), 1 yard 0% ARI +0.1 pts

Cardinals penalties, every game · 49ers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

49ers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 93%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the 49ers were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:59 The 49ers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +7% SF SF: Touchdown
2 Q2 10:11 The 49ers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +9% SF SF: Field goal
3 Q2 5:09 C. Ryland had a 45-yard field goal blockedKicks · 78% expected for him, 5 of 11 from 45+ before +24% SF ARI: Turnover
4 Q2 3:32 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +7% ARI ARI: Turnover
5 Q4 6:20 The 49ers fumbled and the Cardinals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% ARI SF: Turnover
6 Q4 2:52 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +6% SF ARI: Field goal
7 Q4 2:49 The Cardinals converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +19% ARI ARI: Field goal
8 Q4 1:16 The 49ers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +24% ARI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Christian McCaffrey (SF RB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Javon Hargrave (SF DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Dre Greenlaw (SF LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jon Feliciano (SF C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Ambry Thomas (SF CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Justin Jones (ARI DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Garrett Williams (ARI CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Matt Prater (ARI K), out · 0.3 pts
  • BJ Ojulari (ARI LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 47% · 49ers 53%

Final margin
Cardinals by 1
Luck in points
2.1 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 1.1
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 59% · 49ers 41% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2024 games · Cardinals · 49ers

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