luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 5 2024 · October 6, 2024

Raiders at Broncos, Week 5 2024: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Raiders 34–18, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Broncos win 4 of 10.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 8:59 left): Return touchdown by the Broncos, worth 38 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 18
Denver Broncos 34

October 6, 2024 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Broncos −3

Luck index +55 Broncos lucky · −55 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 6, Broncos win 4.

  1. 1 LV 35 DEN 10
  2. 2 LV 23 DEN 6
  3. 3 LV 23 DEN 10
  4. 4 LV 26 DEN 17
  5. 5 LV 16 DEN 11
  6. 6 LV 14 DEN 12
  7. 7 LV 20 DEN 23
  8. 8 LV 9 DEN 16
  9. 9 LV 6 DEN 19
  10. 10 LV 12 DEN 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 55% of them, Broncos 45%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+11.3%
Raiders by 9–1616.9%
Raiders by 1–821.9%
Level after regulation5.5%
Broncos by 1–821.8%
Broncos by 9–1614.5%
Broncos by 17+8.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.3 points to the Broncos: the final margin was Broncos by 16, without the luck Broncos by 13.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 40 yds made · 88% expected
  • W. Lutz, 51 yds made · 65% expected
  • W. Lutz, 44 yds made · 81% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Raiders 11 for 79 yards, Broncos 9 for 44 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:10 Defensive Holding on the Broncos (Justin Strnad), 5 yards +2% LV +0.9 pts
Q1 3:09 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DEN +0.8 pts
Q2 15:00 Offensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Lil'Jordan Humphrey), 10 yards +2% LV +1.2 pts
Q2 14:09 Illegal Shift on the Broncos (Josh Reynolds), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LV +0.6 pts
Q2 3:25 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DEN +0.3 pts
Q2 2:38 Delay of Game on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LV +0.3 pts
Q2 1:33 Offensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Jakobi Meyers), 6 yards, wiping out the play +10% DEN +1.2 pts
Q2 1:27 False Start on the Raiders, 4 yards · pre-snap 0% DEN +0.3 pts
Q2 0:02 Leverage on the Raiders (Janarius Robinson), 15 yards +9% DEN +1.3 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards +2% LV +1.1 pts
Q3 9:54 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DEN +0.5 pts
Q3 1:31 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards +2% DEN +1.1 pts
Q4 14:22 Defensive Holding on the Raiders, 5 yards +1% DEN +0.9 pts
Q4 10:25 Encroachment on the Raiders, 0 yards · pre-snap +1% DEN 0.0 pts
Q4 8:14 Unnecessary Roughness on the Raiders (Nesta Jade Silvera), 15 yards +1% DEN +1.4 pts
Q4 8:14 Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Broncos, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% LV 0.0 pts
Q4 5:23 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos, 3 yards 0% LV +0.2 pts
Q4 4:06 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Broncos (John Franklin-Myers), 1 yard 0% LV +0.1 pts
Q4 3:10 Delay of Game on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LV +0.3 pts
Q4 2:59 Intentional Grounding on the Raiders (Aidan O'Connell), 9 yards 0% DEN +0.8 pts

Raiders penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 22% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:47 The Raiders converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +7% LV LV: Touchdown
2 Q2 12:27 W. Lutz made a 51-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 29 of 44 from 45+ before +8% DEN DEN: Opp touchdown
3 Q2 8:59 The Raiders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throwsReturn touchdown by the BroncosSpecial teams +38% DEN LV: Punt
4 Q2 7:18 J. Meyers dropped a catchable passDrops · 8 drops on 174 catchable balls before this +5% DEN LV: Punt
5 Q2 1:33 Offensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Jakobi Meyers), 6 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 15 flags in 3905 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +10% DEN DEN: Field goal
6 Q2 0:18 The Broncos converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +8% DEN DEN: Field goal
7 Q2 0:02 Leverage on the Raiders (Janarius Robinson), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 216 snaps before, position avg 1 per 297 +9% DEN DEN: Field goal
8 Q3 12:45 The Raiders converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% LV LV: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mike McGlinchey (DEN T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Alex Singleton (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Baron Browning (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Davante Adams (LV WR), out · 1.4 pts
  • Divine Deablo (LV LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Michael Mayer (LV TE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Marcus Epps (LV SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Malcolm Koonce (LV DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Zamir White (LV RB), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 0% · Broncos 100%

Final margin
Broncos by 16
Luck in points
2.3 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 13.7
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 55% · Broncos 45% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2024 games · Raiders · Broncos

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