luckadjusted

Week 5 2024 · October 6, 2024

Raiders at Broncos, Week 5 2024: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Raiders 34–18, but the Raiders played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 3.2 points to the Broncos.

The Broncos won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 65% of the time; with this day’s form, 30%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Broncos were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 8:59 left): Return touchdown by the Broncos, worth 39 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 18
Denver Broncos 34

October 6, 2024 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Broncos −3

Luck index +70 Broncos very lucky · −70 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 7, Broncos win 3.

  1. 1 LV 35 DEN 12
  2. 2 LV 37 DEN 20
  3. 3 LV 22 DEN 9
  4. 4 LV 30 DEN 20
  5. 5 LV 26 DEN 19
  6. 6 LV 11 DEN 6
  7. 7 LV 17 DEN 14
  8. 8 LV 17 DEN 19
  9. 9 LV 13 DEN 20
  10. 10 LV 3 DEN 17

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Broncos won on an off day

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 65% of the time; with this day’s form, 30%.

35 points apart for the Broncos: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Raiders offenseEPA per play gained +0.09 +0.01 better by 0.08
Raiders defenseEPA per play allowed +0.04 +0.06 better by 0.02
Broncos offenseEPA per play gained +0.04 +0.01 better by 0.03
Broncos defenseEPA per play allowed +0.09 +0.06 worse by 0.03

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 70% of them, Broncos 30%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+21.2%
Raiders by 9–1622.7%
Raiders by 1–825.7%
Level after regulation4.2%
Broncos by 1–814.6%
Broncos by 9–168.6%
Broncos by 17+3.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Broncos by 16. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Broncos by 12.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 40 yds made · 88% expected
  • W. Lutz, 51 yds made · 66% expected
  • W. Lutz, 44 yds made · 80% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 22% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:47 The Raiders converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% LV LV: Touchdown
2 Q2 12:27 W. Lutz made 51-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him, 29 of 44 from 45+ before +8% DEN DEN: Opp touchdown
3 Q2 8:59 The Raiders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the BroncosSpecial teams +39% DEN LV: Punt
4 Q2 1:33 Offensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Jakobi Meyers), 6 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 15 flags in 3905 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +10% DEN DEN: Field goal
5 Q2 0:18 The Broncos converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +8% DEN DEN: Field goal
6 Q2 0:02 Leverage on the Raiders (Janarius Robinson), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 216 snaps before, position avg 1 per 297 +9% DEN DEN: Field goal
7 Q3 14:08 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +7% LV DEN: Punt
8 Q3 12:45 The Raiders converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +7% LV LV: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mike McGlinchey (DEN T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Alex Singleton (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Baron Browning (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Davante Adams (LV WR), out · 1.4 pts
  • Divine Deablo (LV LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Michael Mayer (LV TE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Marcus Epps (LV SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Malcolm Koonce (LV DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Zamir White (LV RB), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 1% · Broncos 99%

Final margin
Broncos by 16
Luck in points
3.3 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 12.7
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 70% · Broncos 30% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2024 games · Raiders · Broncos

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