2024 season · final

Las Vegas Raiders, 2024: game by game

The Raiders went 4–13 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.8 wins. Luck cost them 2.8: the 2nd-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–4.

Every game

How often the Raiders win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Chargers	L 10–22	54%	−54
Week 2	@ Ravens	W 26–23	16%	+84
Week 3	vs Panthers	L 22–36	51%	−51
Week 4	vs Browns	W 20–16	65%	+35
Week 5	@ Broncos	L 18–34	70%	−70
Week 6	vs Steelers	L 13–32	38%	−38
Week 7	@ Rams	L 15–20	12%	−12
Week 8	vs Chiefs	L 20–27	7%	−7
Week 9	@ Bengals	L 24–41	2%	−2
Week 11	@ Dolphins	L 19–34	42%	−42
Week 12	vs Broncos	L 19–29	69%	−69
Week 13	@ Chiefs	L 17–19	53%	−53
Week 14	@ Buccaneers	L 13–28	5%	−5
Week 15	vs Falcons	L 9–15	14%	−14
Week 16	vs Jaguars	W 19–14	80%	+20
Week 17	@ Saints	W 25–10	93%	+7
Week 18	vs Chargers	L 20–34	13%	−13

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −54 @ LAC

Wk 2 +84 @ BAL

Wk 3 −51 vs CAR

Wk 4 +35 vs CLE

Wk 5 −70 @ DEN

Wk 6 −38 vs PIT

Wk 7 −12 @ LA

Wk 8 −7 vs KC

Wk 9 −2 @ CIN

Wk 11 −42 @ MIA

Wk 12 −69 vs DEN

Wk 13 −53 @ KC

Wk 14 −5 @ TB

Wk 15 −14 vs ATL

Wk 16 +20 vs JAX

Wk 17 +7 @ NO

Wk 18 −13 vs LAC

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Raiders’ favor.

Kind	Points	Per game
Drops	+11.4	+0.67
Injuries	+2.0	+0.12
Rest	−0.4	−0.02
Judgment calls	−3.0	−0.18
3rd & 4th downs	−4.4	−0.26
Kicks	−8.3	−0.49
Fumble bounces	−28.3	−1.67