2024 season · final

Las Vegas Raiders, 2024: game by game

The Raiders went 4–13 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.3 wins. Luck cost them 2.3: the 4th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–4.

Every game

How often the Raiders win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Chargers	L 10–22	40%	−40
Week 2	@ Ravens	W 26–23	15%	+85
Week 3	vs Panthers	L 22–36	32%	−32
Week 4	vs Browns	W 20–16	76%	+24
Week 5	@ Broncos	L 18–34	55%	−55
Week 6	vs Steelers	L 13–32	25%	−25
Week 7	@ Rams	L 15–20	10%	−10
Week 8	vs Chiefs	L 20–27	13%	−13
Week 9	@ Bengals	L 24–41	5%	−5
Week 11	@ Dolphins	L 19–34	27%	−27
Week 12	vs Broncos	L 19–29	71%	−71
Week 13	@ Chiefs	L 17–19	48%	−48
Week 14	@ Buccaneers	L 13–28	4%	−4
Week 15	vs Falcons	L 9–15	13%	−13
Week 16	vs Jaguars	W 19–14	91%	+9
Week 17	@ Saints	W 25–10	97%	+3
Week 18	vs Chargers	L 20–34	5%	−5

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −40 @ LAC

Wk 2 +85 @ BAL

Wk 3 −32 vs CAR

Wk 4 +24 vs CLE

Wk 5 −55 @ DEN

Wk 6 −25 vs PIT

Wk 7 −10 @ LA

Wk 8 −13 vs KC

Wk 9 −5 @ CIN

Wk 11 −27 @ MIA

Wk 12 −71 vs DEN

Wk 13 −48 @ KC

Wk 14 −4 @ TB

Wk 15 −13 vs ATL

Wk 16 +9 vs JAX

Wk 17 +3 @ NO

Wk 18 −5 vs LAC

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Raiders’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Judgment calls	+0.10	−1.1
Injuries	+0.04	+1.5
Drops	−0.04	+8.2
3rd & 4th downs	−0.14	−2.7
Kicks	−0.18	−8.0
Fumble bounces	−1.24	−37.9