luckadjusted

Week 1 2024 · September 8, 2024

Raiders at Chargers, Week 1 2024: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Raiders 22–10, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Chargers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 4.7 points to the Chargers.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 2:06 left): D. Carlson missed 49-yard field goal, worth 16 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 10
Los Angeles Chargers 22

September 8, 2024 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −3

Luck index +54 Chargers lucky · −54 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 5, Chargers win 5.

  1. 1 LV 26 LAC 0
  2. 2 LV 34 LAC 17
  3. 3 LV 30 LAC 20
  4. 4 LV 33 LAC 28
  5. 5 LV 19 LAC 17
  6. 6 LV 24 LAC 26
  7. 7 LV 17 LAC 22
  8. 8 LV 17 LAC 27
  9. 9 LV 10 LAC 24
  10. 10 LV 20 LAC 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 54% of them, Chargers 46%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 12.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+12.8%
Raiders by 9–1614.8%
Raiders by 1–822.0%
Level after regulation5.5%
Chargers by 1–821.6%
Chargers by 9–1613.2%
Chargers by 17+10.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chargers by 12. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chargers by 8.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Dicker, 53 yds made · 73% expected
  • C. Dicker, 25 yds made · 100% expected
  • C. Dicker, 24 yds made · 100% expected
  • D. Carlson, 49 yds missed · 80% expected
  • D. Carlson, 32 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 27% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:38 Defensive Offside on the Raiders, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +7% LAC LAC: Punt
2 Q1 6:00 The Raiders were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +10% LAC LV: Touchdown
3 Q1 2:51 The Raiders converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +11% LV LV: Touchdown
4 Q2 1:55 The Raiders converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +8% LV LV: Turnover
5 Q2 1:22 The Raiders fumbled and the Chargers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +13% LAC LV: End of half
6 Q3 10:46 The Chargers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +14% LAC LAC: Field goal
7 Q3 8:26 The Raiders fumbled and the Chargers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% LAC LV: Missed field goal
8 Q3 2:06 D. Carlson missed 49-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for him, 40 of 50 from 45+ before +16% LAC LV: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Malcolm Koonce (LV DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 6% · Chargers 94%

Final margin
Chargers by 12
Luck in points
3.5 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 8.5
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 54% · Chargers 46% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2024 games · Raiders · Chargers

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