Week 1 2024 · September 6, 2024
Packers vs Eagles, Week 1 2024: who deserved to win?
The Eagles beat the Packers 34–29, but the replays lean toward the Packers: they take 8 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 18 points of win probability to the Eagles.
The Eagles won on an off day: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Packers they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 24%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Eagles were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:03 left): the Packers were stopped on 3rd & 6, worth 18 points of win probability to the Eagles.
Final
 Green Bay Packers | 29 |
|---|---|
 Philadelphia Eagles | 34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +76 Eagles very lucky · −76 Packers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Packers win 8, Eagles win 2.
- 1 GB 40 PHI 9
- 2 GB 30 PHI 7
- 3 GB 38 PHI 20
- 4 GB 34 PHI 20
- 5 GB 27 PHI 16
- 6 GB 27 PHI 19
- 7 GB 23 PHI 17
- 8 GB 13 PHI 10
- 9 GB 15 PHI 20
- 10 GB 13 PHI 28
Your call
Did the Eagles earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Eagles won on an off day
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Packers they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 24%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
31 points apart for the Eagles: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Packers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.25 | +0.12 | better by 0.13 |
| Packers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.24 | +0.09 | worse by 0.15 |
| Eagles offenseEPA per play gained | +0.24 | +0.13 | better by 0.10 |
| Eagles defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.25 | +0.10 | worse by 0.15 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Packers win 76% of them, Eagles 24%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Packers by 17+ | 29.8% |
| Packers by 9–16 | 20.6% |
| Packers by 1–8 | 24.3% |
| Level after regulation | 2.4% |
| Eagles by 1–8 | 13.3% |
| Eagles by 9–16 | 6.7% |
| Eagles by 17+ | 2.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- B. Narveson, 31 yds made · 95% expected
- B. Narveson, 23 yds made · 98% expected
- J. Elliott, 38 yds made · 91% expected
- B. Narveson, 43 yds missed · 83% expected
- B. Narveson, 26 yds made · 97% expected
- J. Elliott, 21 yds made · 99% expected
Penalties: Packers 10 for 71 yards, Eagles 7 for 57 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Illegal Formation on the Eagles (Kelee Ringo), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% GB +0.4 pts |
| Q1 11:47 | False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% PHI +0.5 pts |
| Q1 10:46 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles (Jalen Carter), 12 yards | +5% GB +1.2 pts |
| Q1 9:39 | Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards | +2% PHI +1.0 pts |
| Q1 7:06 | Offensive Holding on the Packers (Tucker Kraft), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% PHI +1.9 pts |
| Q1 3:58 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Romeo Doubs), 10 yards | +3% PHI +1.5 pts |
| Q2 14:21 | Encroachment on the Packers (Tedarrell Slaton), 6 yards · pre-snap | +8% PHI +2.1 pts |
| Q2 10:16 | Defensive Offside on the Eagles (Jalen Carter), 1 yard · pre-snap | 0% GB +0.1 pts |
| Q2 5:11 | False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PHI 0.0 pts |
| Q2 0:31 | False Start on the Eagles (Dallas Goedert), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GB +0.5 pts |
| Q3 13:31 | Roughing the Passer on the Eagles (Zack Baun), 16 yards | +6% GB +1.5 pts |
| Q3 12:02 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Avonte Maddox), 13 yards | +10% GB +2.6 pts |
| Q3 9:47 | Illegal Shift on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% PHI +1.1 pts |
| Q3 6:38 | Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +8% PHI +2.2 pts |
| Q4 7:09 | Defensive Holding on the Packers (Jaire Alexander), 5 yards | +4% PHI +1.2 pts |
| Q4 4:52 | Illegal Formation on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% GB +1.1 pts |
| Q4 4:43 | Defensive Holding on the Packers (Kenny Clark), 5 yards | +4% PHI +0.7 pts |
Packers penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Eagles’ chance of winning
As low as 33% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 5:22 | The Packers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +9% GB | GB: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 1:59 | The Eagles converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +10% PHI | PHI: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 12:02 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Avonte Maddox), 13 yardsJudgment calls · 9 flags in 2816 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 | +10% GB | GB: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 6:38 | Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +8% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 0:21 | B. Narveson missed a 43-yard field goalKicks · 83% expected for him | +11% PHI | GB: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 10:56 | The Packers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +9% GB | GB: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 4:48 | The Eagles got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws | +11% PHI | PHI: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 0:03 | The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +18% PHI | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- James Bradberry (PHI CB), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Packers 50% · Eagles 50%
- Final margin
- Eagles by 5
- Luck in points
- 4.2 for the Eagles
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Eagles by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Packers 76% · Eagles 24% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2024 games · 
Packers · 
Eagles
More from Week 1 2024
- Ravens at Chiefs KC 27–20 · replay 51% for the winner
- Cardinals at Bills BUF 34–28 · replay 94% for the winner
- Panthers at Saints NO 47–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Texans at Colts HOU 29–27 · replay 62% for the winner
- Jaguars at Dolphins MIA 20–17 · replay 79% for the winner
- Vikings at Giants MIN 28–6 · replay 97% for the winner
- Patriots at Bengals NE 16–10 · replay 27% for the winner
- Steelers at Falcons PIT 18–10 · replay 60% for the winner
- Titans at Bears CHI 24–17 · replay 36% for the winner
- Broncos at Seahawks SEA 26–20 · replay 99% for the winner
- Raiders at Chargers LAC 22–10 · replay 60% for the winner
- Cowboys at Browns DAL 33–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- Commanders at Buccaneers TB 37–20 · replay 71% for the winner
- Rams at Lions DET 26–20 · replay 77% for the winner
- Jets at 49ers SF 32–19 · replay 98% for the winner