luckadjusted

Week 1 2024 · September 6, 2024

Packers vs Eagles, Week 1 2024: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Packers 34–29, but the Packers played well enough to win it: they take 8 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 4.3 points to the Eagles.

The Eagles won on an off day: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Packers they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 24%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Eagles were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:22 left): the Packers converted 3rd & 10, worth 25 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Green Bay Packers 29
Philadelphia Eagles 34

September 6, 2024 · Arena Corinthians · Closing line: Eagles −2

Luck index +76 Eagles very lucky · −76 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 8, Eagles win 2.

  1. 1 GB 36 PHI 6
  2. 2 GB 33 PHI 13
  3. 3 GB 30 PHI 13
  4. 4 GB 26 PHI 13
  5. 5 GB 30 PHI 20
  6. 6 GB 21 PHI 14
  7. 7 GB 7 PHI 3
  8. 8 GB 26 PHI 24
  9. 9 GB 22 PHI 27
  10. 10 GB 17 PHI 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Eagles won on an off day

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Packers they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 24%.

31 points apart for the Eagles: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Packers offenseEPA per play gained +0.25 +0.12 better by 0.13
Packers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.24 +0.09 worse by 0.15
Eagles offenseEPA per play gained +0.24 +0.13 better by 0.10
Eagles defenseEPA per play allowed +0.25 +0.10 worse by 0.15

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 76% of them, Eagles 24%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+28.5%
Packers by 9–1621.4%
Packers by 1–824.8%
Level after regulation2.3%
Eagles by 1–813.6%
Eagles by 9–166.3%
Eagles by 17+3.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Eagles by 5. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Packers by 1.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Narveson, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • B. Narveson, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Elliott, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • B. Narveson, 43 yds missed · 82% expected
  • B. Narveson, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Elliott, 21 yds made · 100% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 33% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:57 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedThe Eagles threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +17% GB PHI: Turnover
2 Q1 7:11 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedThe Eagles fumbled and the Packers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +18% GB PHI: Touchdown
3 Q2 5:22 The Packers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +25% GB GB: Touchdown
4 Q3 0:21 B. Narveson missed 43-yard field goalKicks · 82% expected for him +10% PHI GB: Field goal
5 Q4 13:10 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedThe Eagles threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +16% GB PHI: Field goal
6 Q4 10:56 The Packers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +13% GB GB: Field goal
7 Q4 7:56 B. Narveson made 26-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +10% PHI GB: End of game
8 Q4 0:03 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +18% PHI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • James Bradberry (PHI CB), out (IR) · 1.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 64% · Eagles 36%

Final margin
Eagles by 5
Luck in points
6.4 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 1.4
Replay with same day's form
Packers 76% · Eagles 24% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2024 games · Packers · Eagles

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