luckadjusted

Week 1 2024 · September 8, 2024

Vikings at Giants, Week 1 2024: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Giants 28–6, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 10 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Giants.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:32 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Adoree' Jackson), 36 yards, worth 15 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 28
New York Giants 6

September 8, 2024 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −1

Luck index +4 Vikings about even · −4 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 10, Giants win 0.

  1. 1 MIN 40 NYG 9
  2. 2 MIN 33 NYG 7
  3. 3 MIN 27 NYG 5
  4. 4 MIN 26 NYG 7
  5. 5 MIN 27 NYG 10
  6. 6 MIN 28 NYG 13
  7. 7 MIN 26 NYG 13
  8. 8 MIN 12 NYG 3
  9. 9 MIN 23 NYG 17
  10. 10 MIN 13 NYG 10

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 96% of them, Giants 4%. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 22.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+64.0%
Vikings by 9–1619.3%
Vikings by 1–812.8%
Level after regulation0.4%
Giants by 1–82.9%
Giants by 9–160.5%
Giants by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Vikings by 22. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Vikings by 21.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Gano, 23 yds made · 100% expected
  • G. Gano, 50 yds made · 74% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 68%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:14 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 14% expectedT. Johnson dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 0 catchable balls before this +8% MIN NYG: Punt
2 Q1 11:30 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedThe Vikings fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% NYG MIN: Touchdown
3 Q1 9:54 The Giants converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +6% NYG NYG: Field goal
4 Q1 5:32 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Adoree' Jackson), 36 yardsJudgment calls · 10 flags in 3351 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +15% MIN MIN: Touchdown
5 Q1 1:42 The Giants converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +12% NYG NYG: Punt
6 Q2 6:58 The Vikings converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +6% MIN MIN: Touchdown
7 Q2 1:01 The Giants fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Unnecessary Roughness on the Vikings (Ivan Pace), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 955 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +9% NYG NYG: Punt
8 Q3 4:26 The Giants threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the VikingsSpecial teams +7% MIN NYG: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • T.J. Hockenson (MIN TE), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Dalton Risner (MIN G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Mekhi Blackmon (MIN CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 100% · Giants 0%

Final margin
Vikings by 22
Luck in points
0.9 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 21.1
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 96% · Giants 4% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2024 games · Vikings · Giants

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