luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 1 2024 · September 8, 2024

Vikings at Giants, Week 1 2024: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Giants 28–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 10 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Giants.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:32 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Adoree' Jackson), 36 yards, worth 15 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 28
New York Giants 6

September 8, 2024 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −1

Luck index +3 Vikings about even · −3 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 10, Giants win 0.

  1. 1 MIN 39 NYG 6
  2. 2 MIN 25 NYG 0
  3. 3 MIN 22 NYG 0
  4. 4 MIN 26 NYG 7
  5. 5 MIN 23 NYG 7
  6. 6 MIN 24 NYG 10
  7. 7 MIN 17 NYG 6
  8. 8 MIN 16 NYG 7
  9. 9 MIN 13 NYG 7
  10. 10 MIN 16 NYG 13

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 97% of them, Giants 3%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 22.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+69.2%
Vikings by 9–1619.4%
Vikings by 1–87.8%
Level after regulation0.9%
Giants by 1–82.3%
Giants by 9–160.4%
Giants by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.5 points to the Giants: the final margin was Vikings by 22, without the luck Vikings by 24.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Gano, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • G. Gano, 50 yds made · 72% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Vikings 7 for 63 yards, Giants 9 for 95 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:31 Delay of Game on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG +0.5 pts
Q1 13:09 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Jay Ward), 10 yards +3% NYG +0.7 pts
Q1 7:16 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% NYG +1.8 pts
Q1 7:16 Illegal Formation on the Giants (Andru Phillips), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.5 pts
Q1 5:32 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Adoree' Jackson), 36 yards +15% MIN +3.9 pts
Q1 1:04 Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MIN +0.7 pts
Q1 0:09 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIN +0.5 pts
Q2 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Giants (Wan'Dale Robinson), 10 yards +3% MIN +0.9 pts
Q2 12:22 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYG +0.9 pts
Q2 3:33 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Josh Oliver), 7 yards +2% NYG +0.7 pts
Q2 1:01 Unnecessary Roughness on the Vikings (Ivan Pace), 15 yards +4% NYG +1.4 pts
Q2 0:29 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Shaquill Griffin), 6 yards 0% MIN +0.5 pts
Q3 14:33 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards 0% NYG +1.4 pts
Q3 14:08 Face Mask on the Giants (Kayvon Thibodeaux), 15 yards +2% MIN +1.6 pts
Q3 7:51 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 9 yards +1% MIN +1.0 pts
Q3 3:32 Delay of Game on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN +0.5 pts

Vikings penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 68%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:14 T. Johnson dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 0 catchable balls before this +7% MIN NYG: Punt
2 Q1 9:54 The Giants converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +6% NYG NYG: Field goal
3 Q1 7:16 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsIllegal Formation on the Giants (Andru Phillips), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · no snap history yet +5% NYG NYG: Punt
4 Q1 5:32 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Adoree' Jackson), 36 yardsJudgment calls · 10 flags in 3351 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +15% MIN MIN: Touchdown
5 Q1 1:45 M. Nabers dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 0 catchable balls before this +4% MIN NYG: Punt
6 Q1 1:42 The Giants converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +11% NYG NYG: Punt
7 Q2 1:01 The Giants fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Unnecessary Roughness on the Vikings (Ivan Pace), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 955 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +9% NYG NYG: Punt
8 Q3 4:26 The Giants threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throwsReturn touchdown by the VikingsSpecial teams +7% MIN NYG: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • T.J. Hockenson (MIN TE), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Dalton Risner (MIN G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Mekhi Blackmon (MIN CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 100% · Giants 0%

Final margin
Vikings by 22
Luck in points
2.5 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 24.5
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 97% · Giants 3% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2024 games · Vikings · Giants

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