luckadjusted

Week 1 2024 · September 8, 2024

Texans at Colts, Week 1 2024: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Colts 29–27, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Texans win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 4.4 points to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Texans were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 13:56 left): Defensive Holding on the Colts (Jaylon Jones), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 24 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Houston Texans 29
Indianapolis Colts 27

September 8, 2024 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Texans −3

Luck index +54 Texans lucky · −54 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 5, Colts win 5.

  1. 1 HOU 19 IND 0
  2. 2 HOU 33 IND 19
  3. 3 HOU 26 IND 17
  4. 4 HOU 10 IND 6
  5. 5 HOU 27 IND 24
  6. 6 HOU 27 IND 30
  7. 7 HOU 21 IND 28
  8. 8 HOU 17 IND 27
  9. 9 HOU 23 IND 38
  10. 10 HOU 10 IND 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 46% of them, Colts 54%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+9.3%
Texans by 9–1614.4%
Texans by 1–821.3%
Level after regulation5.9%
Colts by 1–822.9%
Colts by 9–1615.4%
Colts by 17+10.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Texans by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Colts by 10.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 51 yds made · 72% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 50 yds made · 74% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 51 yds made · 72% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 62%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:38 The Texans converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +8% HOU HOU: Field goal
2 Q3 5:49 Blocked punt by the ColtsSpecial teams +10% IND IND: Touchdown
3 Q3 1:40 The Texans converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +10% HOU HOU: Touchdown
4 Q4 13:56 Defensive Holding on the Colts (Jaylon Jones), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 6 flags in 893 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +24% HOU HOU: Touchdown
5 Q4 4:45 The Texans converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +11% HOU HOU: Touchdown
6 Q4 4:26 The Colts converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedFalse Start on the Colts (Anthony Richardson), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 0 flags in 173 snaps before, position avg 1 per 658 +11% IND IND: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:20 The Colts converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +9% IND IND: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:48 The Texans converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +9% HOU HOU: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Josh Downs (IND WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Samson Ebukam (IND DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Matt Gay (IND K), out · 0.4 pts
  • Blake Freeland (IND T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Christian Harris (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 10% · Colts 90%

Final margin
Texans by 2
Luck in points
12.9 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 10.9
Replay with same day's form
Texans 46% · Colts 54% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2024 games · Texans · Colts

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