luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 1 2024 · September 8, 2024

Texans at Colts, Week 1 2024: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Colts 29–27, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Texans were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 13:56 left): Defensive Holding on the Colts (Jaylon Jones), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 24 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Houston Texans 29
Indianapolis Colts 27

September 8, 2024 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Texans −3

Luck index +38 Texans lucky · −38 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 6, Colts win 4.

  1. 1 HOU 44 IND 21
  2. 2 HOU 34 IND 17
  3. 3 HOU 19 IND 6
  4. 4 HOU 21 IND 13
  5. 5 HOU 17 IND 13
  6. 6 HOU 23 IND 21
  7. 7 HOU 29 IND 31
  8. 8 HOU 24 IND 30
  9. 9 HOU 20 IND 30
  10. 10 HOU 31 IND 50

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 62% of them, Colts 38%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+14.2%
Texans by 9–1616.6%
Texans by 1–828.5%
Level after regulation3.4%
Colts by 1–819.4%
Colts by 9–1611.6%
Colts by 17+6.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.0 points to the Texans: the final margin was Texans by 2, without the luck Colts by 9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 51 yds made · 71% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 50 yds made · 72% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 51 yds made · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 5 for 30 yards, Colts 4 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:51 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% IND +0.7 pts
Q2 9:17 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% IND +0.8 pts
Q3 8:18 Defensive Offside on the Colts (Tyquan Lewis), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.5 pts
Q3 3:31 Offensive Holding on the Texans (Nico Collins), 10 yards +3% IND +0.9 pts
Q3 0:05 Defensive Holding on the Colts (Raekwon Davis), 5 yards +2% HOU +0.7 pts
Q4 13:56 Defensive Holding on the Colts (Jaylon Jones), 5 yards, wiping out the play +24% HOU +5.2 pts
Q4 13:41 Illegal Contact on the Texans (Kamari Lassiter), 5 yards +1% IND +0.2 pts
Q4 4:26 False Start on the Colts (Anthony Richardson), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.8 pts
Q4 2:00 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% IND +0.5 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 62%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:23 The Texans converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +7% HOU HOU: End of half
2 Q3 5:49 Blocked punt by the ColtsSpecial teams +10% IND IND: Touchdown
3 Q3 1:40 The Texans converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +9% HOU HOU: Touchdown
4 Q4 13:56 Defensive Holding on the Colts (Jaylon Jones), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 6 flags in 893 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +24% HOU HOU: Touchdown
5 Q4 4:45 The Texans converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +8% HOU HOU: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:20 The Colts converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +7% IND IND: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:00 The Texans converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedFalse Start on the Texans, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +6% HOU HOU: End of game
8 Q4 1:48 The Texans converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +9% HOU HOU: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Josh Downs (IND WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Samson Ebukam (IND DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Matt Gay (IND K), out · 0.4 pts
  • Blake Freeland (IND T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Christian Harris (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 8% · Colts 92%

Final margin
Texans by 2
Luck in points
11.0 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 9.0
Replay with same day's form
Texans 62% · Colts 38% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2024 games · Texans · Colts

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