luckadjusted

Week 1 2024 · September 8, 2024

Jaguars at Dolphins, Week 1 2024: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Jaguars 20–17 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Jaguars had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 5.7 points to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:04 left): J. Sanders made 52-yard field goal, worth 27 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 17
Miami Dolphins 20

September 8, 2024 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −3.5

Luck index +20 Dolphins about even · −20 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 2, Dolphins win 8.

  1. 1 JAX 32 MIA 20
  2. 2 JAX 27 MIA 23
  3. 3 JAX 33 MIA 35
  4. 4 JAX 26 MIA 30
  5. 5 JAX 20 MIA 28
  6. 6 JAX 16 MIA 27
  7. 7 JAX 13 MIA 27
  8. 8 JAX 30 MIA 48
  9. 9 JAX 10 MIA 33
  10. 10 JAX 24 MIA 54

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 20% of them, Dolphins 80%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+2.2%
Jaguars by 9–165.3%
Jaguars by 1–811.7%
Level after regulation1.2%
Dolphins by 1–822.1%
Dolphins by 9–1622.1%
Dolphins by 17+35.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Dolphins by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Dolphins by 13.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Little, 53 yds made · 64% expected
  • J. Sanders, 42 yds missed · 83% expected
  • J. Sanders, 37 yds made · 90% expected
  • J. Sanders, 52 yds made · 64% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 9% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:40 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +9% MIA MIA: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 4:43 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Jalen Ramsey), 40 yardsJudgment calls · 24 flags in 5093 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +9% JAX JAX: Touchdown
3 Q3 2:08 The Jaguars fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% JAX JAX: Turnover on downs
4 Q4 15:00 The Jaguars were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +13% MIA JAX: Punt
5 Q4 14:10 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +10% JAX MIA: Missed field goal
6 Q4 13:38 J. Sanders missed 42-yard field goalKicks · 83% expected for him +15% JAX MIA: Field goal
7 Q4 6:18 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins (Tyreek Hill), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 16 flags in 4497 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +12% JAX JAX: Punt
8 Q4 0:04 J. Sanders made 52-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him, 50 of 73 from 45+ before +27% MIA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Bradley Chubb (MIA LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 5% · Dolphins 95%

Final margin
Dolphins by 3
Luck in points
10.1 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 13.1
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 20% · Dolphins 80% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2024 games · Jaguars · Dolphins

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