luckadjusted

Week 1 2024 · September 8, 2024

Broncos at Seahawks, Week 1 2024: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Broncos 26–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 10 of 10. The Broncos had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Broncos.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 11:34 left): the Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 9, worth 15 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Denver Broncos 20
Seattle Seahawks 26

September 8, 2024 · Lumen Field · Closing line: Seahawks −6.5

Luck index +1 Seahawks about even · −1 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 0, Seahawks win 10.

  1. 1 DEN 9 SEA 12
  2. 2 DEN 16 SEA 26
  3. 3 DEN 13 SEA 26
  4. 4 DEN 15 SEA 31
  5. 5 DEN 20 SEA 39
  6. 6 DEN 17 SEA 39
  7. 7 DEN 10 SEA 34
  8. 8 DEN 6 SEA 33
  9. 9 DEN 10 SEA 42
  10. 10 DEN 0 SEA 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 1% of them, Seahawks 99%. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+0.1%
Broncos by 9–160.2%
Broncos by 1–81.0%
Level after regulation0.3%
Seahawks by 1–83.4%
Seahawks by 9–1610.7%
Seahawks by 17+84.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Seahawks by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Seahawks by 8.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 35 yds made · 91% expected
  • J. Myers, 50 yds made · 72% expected
  • W. Lutz, 30 yds made · 95% expected
  • W. Lutz, 45 yds made · 77% expected
  • J. Myers, 28 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 28% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 15:00 The Broncos fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% DEN DEN: Turnover
2 Q2 11:34 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedThe Broncos threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +15% SEA DEN: Punt
3 Q2 11:28 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 1 yardsJudgment calls +14% DEN DEN: Punt
4 Q2 5:55 The Seahawks’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedThe Broncos got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +10% DEN SEA: Safety
5 Q2 2:57 The Broncos converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +10% DEN DEN: Punt
6 Q2 2:00 The Broncos got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +7% DEN DEN: Punt
7 Q2 0:19 The Broncos converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +9% DEN DEN: Field goal
8 Q3 8:12 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedThe Broncos fumbled and the Seahawks recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% SEA DEN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Abraham Lucas (SEA T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 8% · Seahawks 92%

Final margin
Seahawks by 6
Luck in points
2.8 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 8.8
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 1% · Seahawks 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2024 games · Broncos · Seahawks

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