luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 1 2024 · September 8, 2024

Commanders at Buccaneers, Week 1 2024: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Commanders 37–20, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 62% favorites.

Final

Washington Commanders 20
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 37

September 8, 2024 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −4

Luck index +29 Buccaneers lucky · −29 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 3, Buccaneers win 7.

  1. 1 WAS 24 TB 9
  2. 2 WAS 14 TB 7
  3. 3 WAS 23 TB 21
  4. 4 WAS 18 TB 20
  5. 5 WAS 6 TB 10
  6. 6 WAS 13 TB 20
  7. 7 WAS 24 TB 34
  8. 8 WAS 14 TB 26
  9. 9 WAS 10 TB 27
  10. 10 WAS 7 TB 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 29% of them, Buccaneers 71%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+3.3%
Commanders by 9–166.4%
Commanders by 1–815.8%
Level after regulation4.9%
Buccaneers by 1–828.3%
Buccaneers by 9–1622.8%
Buccaneers by 17+18.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.3 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Buccaneers by 17, without the luck Buccaneers by 6.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 56 yds made · 64% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • C. York, 47 yds missed · 75% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. York, 56 yds missed · 60% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Commanders 6 for 29 yards, Buccaneers 7 for 46 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:49 Illegal Use of Hands on the Commanders (Clelin Ferrell), 5 yards +2% TB +0.5 pts
Q1 8:12 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TB +0.7 pts
Q1 6:59 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Trey Palmer), 10 yards +2% WAS +0.7 pts
Q1 0:45 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Commanders (Olamide Zaccheaus), 10 yards +3% TB +0.9 pts
Q2 15:00 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +0.9 pts
Q2 15:00 False Start on the Buccaneers (Trey Palmer), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +0.5 pts
Q2 8:29 Unnecessary Roughness on the Buccaneers (Antoine Winfield Jr.), 11 yards +3% WAS +1.4 pts
Q2 7:17 Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Commanders (Cade York), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% TB 0.0 pts
Q2 0:26 False Start on the Buccaneers (Cade Otton), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% WAS +0.6 pts
Q3 14:51 Defensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Tykee Smith), 5 yards +3% WAS +1.9 pts
Q3 7:20 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Emmanuel Forbes), 4 yards +4% TB +2.9 pts
Q4 14:55 Illegal Formation on the Commanders (Zach Ertz), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +0.4 pts
Q4 13:34 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (SirVocea Dennis), 5 yards 0% WAS +0.6 pts

Commanders penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:16 The Buccaneers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +6% TB TB: Field goal
2 Q1 8:12 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedDefensive Too Many Men on Field on the Commanders, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +6% TB TB: Field goal
3 Q1 2:40 The Commanders converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +5% WAS WAS: Missed field goal
4 Q1 0:21 C. York missed a 47-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 7 of 12 from 45+ before +6% TB WAS: Touchdown
5 Q2 0:26 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedFalse Start on the Buccaneers (Cade Otton), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 6 flags in 2174 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 +5% WAS TB: Field goal
6 Q3 12:37 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +4% TB WAS: Missed field goal
7 Q3 10:51 The Commanders fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% WAS WAS: Missed field goal
8 Q3 9:26 C. York missed a 56-yard field goalKicks · 60% expected for him, 7 of 13 from 45+ before +6% TB WAS: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Calijah Kancey (TB DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Chris Paul (WAS G), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 13% · Buccaneers 87%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 17
Luck in points
10.3 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 6.7
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 29% · Buccaneers 71% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2024 games · Commanders · Buccaneers

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