Week 1 2024 · September 8, 2024
Titans at Bears, Week 1 2024: who deserved to win?
The Bears beat the Titans 24–17, but the Titans played well enough to win it: they take 8 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Bears.
The Bears won on an off day: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Titans they would win 60% of the time; with this day’s form, 22%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Bears were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:45 left): Return touchdown by the Bears, worth 96 points of win probability to the Bears.
Final
 Tennessee Titans | 17 |
|---|---|
 Chicago Bears | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +78 Bears very lucky · −78 Titans
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Titans win 8, Bears win 2.
- 1 TEN 35 CHI 10
- 2 TEN 22 CHI 3
- 3 TEN 19 CHI 3
- 4 TEN 21 CHI 9
- 5 TEN 16 CHI 6
- 6 TEN 20 CHI 14
- 7 TEN 9 CHI 6
- 8 TEN 12 CHI 10
- 9 TEN 12 CHI 16
- 10 TEN 10 CHI 24
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Bears won on an off day
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Titans they would win 60% of the time; with this day’s form, 22%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
38 points apart for the Bears: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Titans offenseEPA per play gained | −0.05 | +0.05 | worse by 0.10 |
| Titans defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.25 | +0.08 | better by 0.33 |
| Bears offenseEPA per play gained | −0.25 | +0.08 | worse by 0.33 |
| Bears defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.05 | +0.09 | better by 0.13 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Titans win 78% of them, Bears 22%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Titans by 17+ | 28.3% |
| Titans by 9–16 | 23.1% |
| Titans by 1–8 | 25.9% |
| Level after regulation | 2.4% |
| Bears by 1–8 | 11.7% |
| Bears by 9–16 | 6.8% |
| Bears by 17+ | 1.9% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Bears by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bears by 4.1.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- N. Folk, 40 yds made · 88% expected
- C. Santos, 24 yds made · 99% expected
- C. Santos, 50 yds made · 71% expected
- C. Santos, 48 yds made · 75% expected
When it happened
Bears’ chance of winning
As low as 8% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:17 | The Bears converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +9% CHI | CHI: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 12:00 | The Titans converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +8% TEN | TEN: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 9:14 | Blocked punt by the BearsSpecial teams | +13% CHI | CHI: Opp touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 11:54 | The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedThe Titans fumbled and the Bears recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +35% CHI | TEN: Opp touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 11:40 | Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +9% TEN | TEN: Opp touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 9:57 | C. Santos made 48-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 28 of 39 from 45+ before | +7% CHI | CHI: Opp touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 7:45 | The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedThe Titans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the BearsSpecial teams | +96% CHI | TEN: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 1:15 | The Titans were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedThe Titans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +14% CHI | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Patrick Scales (CHI LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Titans 26% · Bears 74%
- Final margin
- Bears by 7
- Luck in points
- 2.9 for the Bears
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bears by 4.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Titans 78% · Bears 22% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2024 games · 
Titans · 
Bears
More from Week 1 2024
- Ravens at Chiefs KC 27–20 · replay 48% for the winner
- Packers vs Eagles PHI 34–29 · replay 24% for the winner
- Cardinals at Bills BUF 34–28 · replay 92% for the winner
- Panthers at Saints NO 47–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Texans at Colts HOU 29–27 · replay 46% for the winner
- Jaguars at Dolphins MIA 20–17 · replay 80% for the winner
- Vikings at Giants MIN 28–6 · replay 96% for the winner
- Patriots at Bengals NE 16–10 · replay 47% for the winner
- Steelers at Falcons PIT 18–10 · replay 46% for the winner
- Broncos at Seahawks SEA 26–20 · replay 99% for the winner
- Raiders at Chargers LAC 22–10 · replay 46% for the winner
- Cowboys at Browns DAL 33–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- Commanders at Buccaneers TB 37–20 · replay 69% for the winner
- Rams at Lions DET 26–20 · replay 76% for the winner
- Jets at 49ers SF 32–19 · replay 98% for the winner