2024 season · final
New York Giants, 2024: game by game
The Giants went 3–14 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 3.7 wins. Luck cost them 0.7: the 13th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 1–8.
Every game
How often the Giants win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Vikings | L 6–28 | 3% | −3 |
| Week 2 | @ Commanders | L 18–21 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 3 | @ Browns | W 21–15 | 81% | +19 |
| Week 4 | vs Cowboys | L 15–20 | 3% | −3 |
| Week 5 | @ Seahawks | W 29–20 | 33% | +67 |
| Week 6 | vs Bengals | L 7–17 | 33% | −33 |
| Week 7 | vs Eagles | L 3–28 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 8 | @ Steelers | L 18–26 | 14% | −14 |
| Week 9 | vs Commanders | L 22–27 | 7% | −7 |
| Week 10 | vs Panthers | L 17–20 | 76% | −76 |
| Week 12 | vs Buccaneers | L 7–30 | 7% | −7 |
| Week 13 | @ Cowboys | L 20–27 | 30% | −30 |
| Week 14 | vs Saints | L 11–14 | 9% | −9 |
| Week 15 | vs Ravens | L 14–35 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 16 | @ Falcons | L 7–34 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 17 | vs Colts | W 45–33 | 46% | +54 |
| Week 18 | @ Eagles | L 13–20 | 17% | −17 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Giants’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Injuries | +0.27 | +6.9 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.09 | +3.3 |
| Kicks | +0.03 | +10.0 |
| Rest | +0.02 | 0.0 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.29 | +2.0 |
| Drops | −0.36 | −13.3 |