2024 season · final

New York Giants, 2024: game by game

The Giants went 3–14 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 4.0 wins. Luck cost them 1.1: the 12th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 1–8.

Every game

How often the Giants win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Vikings	L 6–28	4%	−4
Week 2	@ Commanders	L 18–21	21%	−21
Week 3	@ Browns	W 21–15	80%	+20
Week 4	vs Cowboys	L 15–20	9%	−9
Week 5	@ Seahawks	W 29–20	19%	+81
Week 6	vs Bengals	L 7–17	55%	−55
Week 7	vs Eagles	L 3–28	1%	−1
Week 8	@ Steelers	L 18–26	24%	−24
Week 9	vs Commanders	L 22–27	7%	−7
Week 10	@ Panthers	L 17–20	85%	−85
Week 12	vs Buccaneers	L 7–30	9%	−9
Week 13	@ Cowboys	L 20–27	30%	−30
Week 14	vs Saints	L 11–14	11%	−11
Week 15	vs Ravens	L 14–35	2%	−2
Week 16	@ Falcons	L 7–34	1%	−1
Week 17	vs Colts	W 45–33	31%	+69
Week 18	@ Eagles	L 13–20	18%	−18

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −4 vs MIN

Wk 2 −21 @ WAS

Wk 3 +20 @ CLE

Wk 4 −9 vs DAL

Wk 5 +81 @ SEA

Wk 6 −55 vs CIN

Wk 7 −1 vs PHI

Wk 8 −24 @ PIT

Wk 9 −7 vs WAS

Wk 10 −85 @ CAR

Wk 12 −9 vs TB

Wk 13 −30 @ DAL

Wk 14 −11 vs NO

Wk 15 −2 vs BAL

Wk 16 −1 @ ATL

Wk 17 +69 vs IND

Wk 18 −18 @ PHI

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Giants’ favor.

Kind	Points	Per game
Kicks	+9.5	+0.56
Injuries	+9.3	+0.54
Fumble bounces	+1.6	+0.09
3rd & 4th downs	+0.1	+0.01
Judgment calls	−5.4	−0.32
Drops	−10.5	−0.62