luckadjusted

Week 9 2024 · November 3, 2024

Commanders at Giants, Week 9 2024: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Giants 27–22, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Commanders win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Commanders were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:02 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Mike Sainristil), 15 yards, wiping out the play, worth 13 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

Washington Commanders 27
New York Giants 22

November 3, 2024 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Commanders −4.5

Luck index +7 Commanders about even · −7 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 9, Giants win 1.

  1. 1 WAS 37 NYG 10
  2. 2 WAS 31 NYG 10
  3. 3 WAS 24 NYG 7
  4. 4 WAS 31 NYG 17
  5. 5 WAS 24 NYG 13
  6. 6 WAS 22 NYG 13
  7. 7 WAS 24 NYG 17
  8. 8 WAS 20 NYG 16
  9. 9 WAS 20 NYG 17
  10. 10 WAS 20 NYG 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 93% of them, Giants 7%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+44.3%
Commanders by 9–1629.2%
Commanders by 1–818.8%
Level after regulation1.1%
Giants by 1–85.3%
Giants by 9–161.1%
Giants by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Commanders by 5. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Commanders by 1.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. McAtamney, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • A. Seibert, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • A. Seibert, 20 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:23 The Giants fumbled and the Commanders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% WAS NYG: Touchdown
2 Q2 7:32 The Commanders converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +6% WAS WAS: Touchdown
3 Q2 0:51 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% NYG NYG: End of half
4 Q2 0:20 The Commanders converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +7% WAS WAS: Touchdown
5 Q3 8:41 The Giants converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +6% NYG NYG: Field goal
6 Q3 5:33 Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Darius Slayton), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 7 flags in 4325 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +11% WAS WAS: Field goal
7 Q4 3:02 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Mike Sainristil), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 431 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +13% NYG NYG: Touchdown
8 Q4 2:48 The Giants’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +4% WAS –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Andrew Thomas (NYG T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Kayvon Thibodeaux (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Graham Gano (NYG K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Greg Joseph (NYG K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jamie Gillan (NYG P), out · 0.2 pts
  • Jonathan Allen (WAS DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Cornelius Lucas (WAS T), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 63% · Giants 37%

Final margin
Commanders by 5
Luck in points
3.2 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Commanders by 1.8
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 93% · Giants 7% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2024 games · Commanders · Giants

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