luckadjusted

Week 9 2024 · November 3, 2024

Lions at Packers, Week 9 2024: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Packers 24–14 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Packers had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 4.7 points to the Packers.

Before kickoff the Lions were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:42 left): Return touchdown by the Lions, worth 23 points of win probability to the Lions.

Final

Detroit Lions 24
Green Bay Packers 14

November 3, 2024 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Lions −2.5

Luck index +24 Lions about even · −24 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 8, Packers win 2.

  1. 1 DET 41 GB 14
  2. 2 DET 19 GB 0
  3. 3 DET 21 GB 6
  4. 4 DET 26 GB 14
  5. 5 DET 16 GB 7
  6. 6 DET 27 GB 20
  7. 7 DET 34 GB 31
  8. 8 DET 26 GB 24
  9. 9 DET 23 GB 27
  10. 10 DET 17 GB 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 76% of them, Packers 24%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+24.1%
Lions by 9–1623.0%
Lions by 1–825.1%
Level after regulation4.2%
Packers by 1–814.1%
Packers by 9–166.7%
Packers by 17+2.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Lions by 10. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Lions by 5.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • B. McManus, 46 yds missed · 75% expected
  • J. Bates, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • B. McManus, 38 yds made · 88% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 66%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:16 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +6% DET GB: Field goal
2 Q1 11:46 The Packers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +7% GB GB: Field goal
3 Q1 7:14 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +5% DET GB: Field goal
4 Q2 15:00 The Lions converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedEncroachment on the Packers (Tedarrell Slaton), 2 yardsPre-snap flags · 3 flags in 2019 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 +13% DET DET: Touchdown
5 Q2 6:18 Disqualification on the Lions (Brian Branch), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 10 flags in 1302 snaps before, position avg 1 per 462 +9% GB GB: Missed field goal
6 Q2 5:31 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedT. Kraft dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 68 catchable balls before this +12% DET GB: Missed field goal
7 Q2 5:28 B. McManus missed 46-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 57 of 82 from 45+ before +10% DET GB: Opp touchdown
8 Q2 0:42 The Packers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 52% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the LionsSpecial teams +23% DET GB: End of half

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jaire Alexander (GB CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Josh Myers (GB C), out · 0.6 pts
  • Aidan Hutchinson (DET DE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Jameson Williams (DET WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Marcus Davenport (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Derrick Barnes (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 79% · Packers 21%

Final margin
Lions by 10
Luck in points
4.3 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 5.7
Replay with same day's form
Lions 76% · Packers 24% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2024 games · Lions · Packers

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