luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 9 2024 · November 3, 2024

Colts at Vikings, Week 9 2024: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Colts 21–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 11:06 left): Return touchdown by the Colts, worth 41 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 13
Minnesota Vikings 21

November 3, 2024 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −6.5

Luck index +10 Vikings about even · −10 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 1, Vikings win 9.

  1. 1 IND 19 MIN 13
  2. 2 IND 13 MIN 16
  3. 3 IND 24 MIN 29
  4. 4 IND 20 MIN 27
  5. 5 IND 17 MIN 27
  6. 6 IND 17 MIN 30
  7. 7 IND 13 MIN 29
  8. 8 IND 6 MIN 24
  9. 9 IND 7 MIN 30
  10. 10 IND 10 MIN 39

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 10% of them, Vikings 90%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+0.6%
Colts by 9–162.5%
Colts by 1–86.0%
Level after regulation1.9%
Vikings by 1–818.5%
Vikings by 9–1621.1%
Vikings by 17+49.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.1 points to the Colts: the final margin was Vikings by 8, without the luck Vikings by 12.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Reichard, 53 yds missed · 72% expected
  • M. Gay, 53 yds missed · 70% expected
  • W. Reichard, 31 yds missed · 97% expected
  • M. Gay, 42 yds made · 87% expected
  • M. Gay, 54 yds made · 68% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Colts 7 for 50 yards, Vikings 3 for 41 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:14 Defensive Holding on the Colts (Taven Bryan), 5 yards +2% MIN +0.7 pts
Q2 12:14 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% IND +1.8 pts
Q2 3:46 Illegal Shift on the Colts, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% MIN +1.8 pts
Q3 13:14 Encroachment on the Colts (Grover Stewart), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIN +0.4 pts
Q3 9:00 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards +4% MIN +0.9 pts
Q3 7:15 Defensive Holding on the Colts (Jaylon Jones), 5 yards +2% MIN +0.3 pts
Q4 15:00 Chop Block on the Colts (Jonathan Taylor), 15 yards +6% MIN +1.3 pts
Q4 14:34 False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN +0.3 pts
Q4 0:45 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% IND +0.2 pts
Q4 0:42 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Stephon Gilmore), 26 yards, wiping out the play +1% IND +4.5 pts

Colts penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 23% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:30 The Colts fumbled and the Vikings recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% MIN IND: Punt
2 Q2 11:06 The Vikings fumbled and the Colts recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the ColtsSpecial teams +41% IND MIN: Missed field goal
3 Q2 5:54 J. Jefferson dropped a catchable passDrops · 10 drops on 275 catchable balls before this +9% IND MIN: Missed field goal
4 Q2 5:50 W. Reichard missed a 53-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 5 of 5 from 45+ before +8% IND MIN: Missed field goal
5 Q2 2:00 M. Gay missed a 53-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 43 of 61 from 45+ before +10% MIN IND: End of half
6 Q3 2:53 The Vikings converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +11% MIN MIN: Touchdown
7 Q4 5:29 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +8% MIN IND: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 5:24 The Colts were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +9% MIN IND: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Christian Darrisaw (MIN T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Blake Cashman (MIN LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Bernhard Raimann (IND T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Will Fries (IND G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tyquan Lewis (IND DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 2% · Vikings 98%

Final margin
Vikings by 8
Luck in points
4.1 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 12.1
Replay with same day's form
Colts 10% · Vikings 90% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2024 games · Colts · Vikings

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