luckadjusted

Week 9 2024 · November 3, 2024

Colts at Vikings, Week 9 2024: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Colts 21–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 9 of 10. The Colts had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 5.9 points to the Colts.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 11:06 left): Return touchdown by the Colts, worth 41 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 13
Minnesota Vikings 21

November 3, 2024 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −6.5

Luck index +10 Vikings about even · −10 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 1, Vikings win 9.

  1. 1 IND 23 MIN 17
  2. 2 IND 13 MIN 15
  3. 3 IND 19 MIN 24
  4. 4 IND 22 MIN 30
  5. 5 IND 16 MIN 27
  6. 6 IND 31 MIN 44
  7. 7 IND 20 MIN 37
  8. 8 IND 3 MIN 23
  9. 9 IND 6 MIN 30
  10. 10 IND 10 MIN 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 10% of them, Vikings 90%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+0.4%
Colts by 9–162.4%
Colts by 1–85.6%
Level after regulation2.2%
Vikings by 1–817.8%
Vikings by 9–1622.0%
Vikings by 17+49.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Vikings by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Vikings by 12.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Reichard, 53 yds missed · 72% expected
  • M. Gay, 53 yds missed · 70% expected
  • W. Reichard, 31 yds missed · 97% expected
  • M. Gay, 42 yds made · 87% expected
  • M. Gay, 54 yds made · 68% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 23% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:42 The Colts converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +9% IND IND: Turnover
2 Q1 6:49 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expectedThe Vikings threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +18% IND MIN: Punt
3 Q2 11:06 The Vikings fumbled and the Colts recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the ColtsSpecial teams +41% IND MIN: Missed field goal
4 Q2 5:54 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expectedJ. Jefferson dropped a catchable passDrops · 10 drops on 275 catchable balls before this +12% IND MIN: Missed field goal
5 Q2 2:00 M. Gay missed 53-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 43 of 61 from 45+ before +10% MIN IND: End of half
6 Q3 4:48 The Vikings converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +16% MIN MIN: Touchdown
7 Q3 2:53 The Vikings converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +12% MIN MIN: Touchdown
8 Q4 5:24 The Colts were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +9% MIN IND: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Christian Darrisaw (MIN T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Blake Cashman (MIN LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Bernhard Raimann (IND T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Will Fries (IND G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tyquan Lewis (IND DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 4% · Vikings 96%

Final margin
Vikings by 8
Luck in points
4.1 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 12.1
Replay with same day's form
Colts 10% · Vikings 90% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2024 games · Colts · Vikings

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