luckadjusted

Week 9 2024 · November 3, 2024

Broncos at Ravens, Week 9 2024: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Broncos 41–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 75% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:10 left): Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 13 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Denver Broncos 10
Baltimore Ravens 41

November 3, 2024 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −9

Luck index +8 Ravens about even · −8 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 1, Ravens win 9.

  1. 1 DEN 22 BAL 17
  2. 2 DEN 30 BAL 33
  3. 3 DEN 31 BAL 37
  4. 4 DEN 19 BAL 28
  5. 5 DEN 13 BAL 24
  6. 6 DEN 23 BAL 37
  7. 7 DEN 13 BAL 31
  8. 8 DEN 6 BAL 27
  9. 9 DEN 12 BAL 38
  10. 10 DEN 10 BAL 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 8% of them, Ravens 92%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 31.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+0.5%
Broncos by 9–161.6%
Broncos by 1–84.7%
Level after regulation1.7%
Ravens by 1–817.0%
Ravens by 9–1621.1%
Ravens by 17+53.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Ravens by 31. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 23.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 33 yds made · 96% expected
  • W. Lutz, 37 yds made · 91% expected
  • J. Tucker, 37 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:35 The Broncos were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +9% BAL DEN: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 13:06 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +8% DEN BAL: Punt
3 Q1 6:21 The Broncos were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +7% BAL DEN: Turnover on downs
4 Q1 1:43 The Broncos converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% DEN DEN: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 8:54 The Broncos converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +5% DEN DEN: Touchdown
6 Q2 7:21 The Broncos converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +6% DEN DEN: Touchdown
7 Q2 3:37 The Broncos converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +6% DEN DEN: Field goal
8 Q2 1:10 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +13% BAL BAL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Eddie Jackson (BAL FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Travis Jones (BAL DT), out · 0.2 pts
  • P.J. Locke (DEN FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Alex Singleton (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Josh Reynolds (DEN WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Luke Wattenberg (DEN C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 0% · Ravens 100%

Final margin
Ravens by 31
Luck in points
7.3 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 23.7
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 8% · Ravens 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2024 games · Broncos · Ravens

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