luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 9 2024 · November 3, 2024

Bears at Cardinals, Week 9 2024: who deserved to win?

The Cardinals beat the Bears 29–9, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Cardinals win 10 of 10.

An off day for the Bears: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Cardinals they would win 40% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Cardinals were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 3:40 left): Leverage on the Bears (Gervon Dexter), 7 yards, worth 11 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Chicago Bears 9
Arizona Cardinals 29

November 3, 2024 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Cardinals −1.5

Luck index +4 Cardinals about even · −4 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 0, Cardinals win 10.

  1. 1 CHI 24 ARI 27
  2. 2 CHI 12 ARI 18
  3. 3 CHI 13 ARI 23
  4. 4 CHI 13 ARI 25
  5. 5 CHI 20 ARI 35
  6. 6 CHI 20 ARI 38
  7. 7 CHI 6 ARI 27
  8. 8 CHI 9 ARI 33
  9. 9 CHI 0 ARI 27
  10. 10 CHI 6 ARI 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Bears

Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Cardinals they would win 40% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%.

36 points apart for the Bears: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Bears offenseEPA per play gained −0.16 +0.05 worse by 0.21
Bears defenseEPA per play allowed +0.23 +0.07 worse by 0.17
Cardinals offenseEPA per play gained +0.23 +0.07 better by 0.16
Cardinals defenseEPA per play allowed −0.16 +0.16 better by 0.32

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 4% of them, Cardinals 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+0.1%
Bears by 9–160.7%
Bears by 1–83.4%
Level after regulation1.1%
Cardinals by 1–88.3%
Cardinals by 9–1619.0%
Cardinals by 17+67.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.3 points to the Bears: the final margin was Cardinals by 20, without the luck Cardinals by 22.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 29 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Santos, 53 yds made · 72% expected
  • C. Santos, 53 yds made · 72% expected
  • C. Ryland, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. Ryland, 55 yds made · 64% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bears 6 for 33 yards, Cardinals 2 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:13 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Keenan Allen), 10 yards +4% ARI +1.1 pts
Q1 8:22 Illegal Formation on the Bears, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +8% ARI +1.6 pts
Q1 0:03 False Start on the Bears (Marcedes Lewis), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ARI +0.6 pts
Q2 12:39 Defensive Offside on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CHI +0.8 pts
Q2 3:40 Leverage on the Bears (Gervon Dexter), 7 yards +11% ARI +2.8 pts
Q2 1:55 False Start on the Bears (D.J. Moore), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.6 pts
Q4 9:42 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards 0% CHI +1.2 pts
Q4 7:58 Chop Block on the Bears (D'Andre Swift), 1 yard +1% ARI +0.8 pts

Bears penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 42% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:22 The Bears converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +6% CHI CHI: Punt
2 Q1 8:22 Illegal Formation on the Bears, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +8% ARI ARI: Punt
3 Q2 13:53 The Bears converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +5% CHI CHI: Field goal
4 Q2 4:25 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +6% CHI ARI: Touchdown
5 Q2 3:40 Leverage on the Bears (Gervon Dexter), 7 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 840 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 +11% ARI ARI: Touchdown
6 Q2 0:35 K. Allen dropped a catchable passDrops · 6 drops on 211 catchable balls before this +7% ARI CHI: Field goal
7 Q2 0:30 C. Santos made a 53-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 33 of 45 from 45+ before +8% CHI CHI: End of half
8 Q2 0:12 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +4% ARI ARI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Sean Murphy-Bunting (ARI CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Will Hernandez (ARI G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Justin Jones (ARI DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Matt Prater (ARI K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Montez Sweat (CHI DE), out · 0.8 pts
  • Braxton Jones (CHI T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Kyler Gordon (CHI CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jaquan Brisker (CHI SS), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 0% · Cardinals 100%

Final margin
Cardinals by 20
Luck in points
2.3 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 22.3
Replay with same day's form
Bears 4% · Cardinals 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2024 games · Bears · Cardinals

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