2024 season · final
Arizona Cardinals, 2024: game by game
The Cardinals went 8–9 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.9 wins. Luck cost them 1.9: the 7th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–5.
Every game
How often the Cardinals win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Bills | L 28–34 | 6% | −6 |
| Week 2 | vs Rams | W 41–10 | 75% | +25 |
| Week 3 | vs Lions | L 13–20 | 23% | −23 |
| Week 4 | vs Commanders | L 14–42 | 10% | −10 |
| Week 5 | @ 49ers | W 24–23 | 60% | +41 |
| Week 6 | @ Packers | L 13–34 | 18% | −18 |
| Week 7 | vs Chargers | W 17–15 | 72% | +28 |
| Week 8 | @ Dolphins | W 28–27 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 9 | vs Bears | W 29–9 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 10 | vs Jets | W 31–6 | 90% | +10 |
| Week 12 | @ Seahawks | L 6–16 | 61% | −61 |
| Week 13 | @ Vikings | L 22–23 | 44% | −44 |
| Week 14 | vs Seahawks | L 18–30 | 24% | −24 |
| Week 15 | vs Patriots | W 30–17 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 16 | @ Panthers | L 30–36 | 60% | −60 |
| Week 17 | @ Rams | L 9–13 | 81% | −81 |
| Week 18 | vs 49ers | W 47–24 | 91% | +9 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Cardinals’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +0.38 | −4.2 |
| Injuries | +0.33 | +11.9 |
| Judgment calls | +0.08 | −1.5 |
| Kicks | −0.08 | +2.2 |
| Drops | −0.13 | +5.0 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.38 | −5.6 |