Week 8 2024 · October 27, 2024
Cardinals at Dolphins, Week 8 2024: who deserved to win?
The Cardinals beat the Dolphins 28–27, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cardinals win 9 of 10. The Dolphins had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 3.5 points to the Dolphins.
An off day for the Dolphins: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cardinals they would win 59% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Dolphins were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:01 left): C. Ryland made 34-yard field goal, worth 52 points of win probability to the Cardinals.
Final
 Arizona Cardinals | 28 |
|---|---|
 Miami Dolphins | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 Cardinals about even · −7 Dolphins
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Cardinals win 9, Dolphins win 1.
- 1 ARI 38 MIA 7
- 2 ARI 41 MIA 17
- 3 ARI 41 MIA 21
- 4 ARI 30 MIA 13
- 5 ARI 31 MIA 17
- 6 ARI 24 MIA 13
- 7 ARI 37 MIA 28
- 8 ARI 22 MIA 16
- 9 ARI 27 MIA 24
- 10 ARI 10 MIA 16
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Dolphins
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cardinals they would win 59% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
52 points apart for the Dolphins: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals offenseEPA per play gained | +0.28 | +0.06 | better by 0.22 |
| Cardinals defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.19 | +0.15 | worse by 0.04 |
| Dolphins offenseEPA per play gained | +0.19 | +0.07 | better by 0.12 |
| Dolphins defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.28 | +0.06 | worse by 0.22 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Cardinals win 93% of them, Dolphins 7%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Cardinals by 17+ | 52.0% |
| Cardinals by 9–16 | 23.0% |
| Cardinals by 1–8 | 16.9% |
| Level after regulation | 1.8% |
| Dolphins by 1–8 | 4.5% |
| Dolphins by 9–16 | 1.5% |
| Dolphins by 17+ | 0.4% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Cardinals by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cardinals by 5.9.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Sanders, 53 yds made · 60% expected
- J. Sanders, 25 yds made · 98% expected
- C. Ryland, 57 yds made · 50% expected
- C. Ryland, 34 yds made · 91% expected
When it happened
Dolphins’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 87%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:51 | The Dolphins converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +8% MIA | MIA: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 11:37 | The Cardinals converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +10% ARI | ARI: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 11:48 | C. Ryland made 57-yard field goalKicks · 50% expected for him, 5 of 12 from 45+ before | +9% ARI | ARI: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 6:51 | The Dolphins converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +8% MIA | MIA: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 3:22 | Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +17% MIA | – |
| 6 | Q4 1:48 | The Cardinals converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +8% ARI | ARI: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 0:14 | The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +8% MIA | ARI: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 0:01 | C. Ryland made 34-yard field goalKicks · 91% expected for him | +52% ARI | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Zach Sieler (MIA DE), out · 0.7 pts
- Kader Kohou (MIA CB), out · 0.5 pts
- Jaelan Phillips (MIA LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Sean Murphy-Bunting (ARI CB), out · 0.8 pts
- Will Hernandez (ARI G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Justin Jones (ARI DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Matt Prater (ARI K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Roy Lopez (ARI NT), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Cardinals 77% · Dolphins 23%
- Final margin
- Cardinals by 1
- Luck in points
- 4.9 for the Dolphins
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cardinals by 5.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Cardinals 93% · Dolphins 7% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2024 games · 
Cardinals · 
Dolphins
More from Week 8 2024
- Vikings at Rams LA 30–20 · replay 68% for the winner
- Falcons at Buccaneers ATL 31–26 · replay 82% for the winner
- Ravens at Browns CLE 29–24 · replay 1% for the winner
- Packers at Jaguars GB 30–27 · replay 89% for the winner
- Colts at Texans HOU 23–20 · replay 88% for the winner
- Jets at Patriots NE 25–22 · replay 9% for the winner
- Eagles at Bengals PHI 37–17 · replay 89% for the winner
- Titans at Lions DET 52–14 · replay 64% for the winner
- Bills at Seahawks BUF 31–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Saints at Chargers LAC 26–8 · replay 76% for the winner
- Panthers at Broncos DEN 28–14 · replay 63% for the winner
- Bears at Commanders WAS 18–15 · replay 96% for the winner
- Chiefs at Raiders KC 27–20 · replay 93% for the winner
- Cowboys at 49ers SF 30–24 · replay 95% for the winner
- Giants at Steelers PIT 26–18 · replay 76% for the winner