luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 8 2024 · October 27, 2024

Bills at Seahawks, Week 8 2024: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Seahawks 31–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bills were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 2:55 left): the Bills fumbled and recovered it themselves, worth 13 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

Buffalo Bills 31
Seattle Seahawks 10

October 27, 2024 · Lumen Field · Closing line: Bills −3

Luck index +3 Bills about even · −3 Seahawks

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 10, Seahawks win 0.

  1. 1 BUF 36 SEA 0
  2. 2 BUF 35 SEA 6
  3. 3 BUF 27 SEA 3
  4. 4 BUF 24 SEA 3
  5. 5 BUF 24 SEA 6
  6. 6 BUF 37 SEA 21
  7. 7 BUF 20 SEA 7
  8. 8 BUF 30 SEA 20
  9. 9 BUF 27 SEA 20
  10. 10 BUF 24 SEA 21

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 97% of them, Seahawks 3%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+71.4%
Bills by 9–1618.4%
Bills by 1–87.2%
Level after regulation0.6%
Seahawks by 1–81.8%
Seahawks by 9–160.5%
Seahawks by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.1 points to the Bills: the final margin was Bills by 21, without the luck Bills by 18.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 38 yds made · 88% expected
  • T. Bass, 27 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bills 13 for 85 yards, Seahawks 11 for 82 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:10 Illegal Blindside Block on the Bills, 9 yards +2% SEA +0.8 pts
Q1 12:39 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% SEA +2.6 pts
Q1 10:48 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.7 pts
Q1 10:28 Illegal Contact on the Seahawks (Devon Witherspoon), 5 yards, wiping out the play +8% BUF +2.4 pts
Q1 8:37 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% SEA +1.7 pts
Q1 1:16 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% SEA +0.6 pts
Q1 0:18 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Seahawks, 4 yards +1% BUF +0.7 pts
Q2 11:13 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bills (DaQuan Jones), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SEA +0.4 pts
Q2 9:05 Delay of Game on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.4 pts
Q2 4:05 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Keon Coleman), 4 yards, wiping out the play +8% SEA +2.3 pts
Q2 0:38 Roughing the Passer on the Seahawks, 12 yards +3% BUF +1.5 pts
Q3 14:54 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards +3% SEA +1.2 pts
Q3 9:40 Delay of Game on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SEA +0.7 pts
Q3 8:28 Illegal Contact on the Bills (Christian Benford), 5 yards +1% SEA +0.8 pts
Q3 1:16 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% BUF +2.7 pts
Q3 0:58 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.4 pts
Q3 0:46 Taunting on the Seahawks (Geno Smith), 10 yards 0% BUF +0.5 pts
Q4 12:25 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Riq Woolen), 11 yards 0% BUF +0.7 pts
Q4 11:38 Encroachment on the Seahawks (Johnathan Hankins), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.3 pts
Q4 8:10 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Damar Hamlin), 2 yards 0% SEA +0.8 pts
Q4 8:02 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards 0% SEA +0.9 pts
Q4 7:49 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SEA +0.8 pts
Q4 7:37 Tripping on the Seahawks (Jerrick Reed), 10 yards 0% BUF +0.9 pts
Q4 5:15 Delay of Game on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SEA +0.2 pts

Bills penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 56%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:39 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% SEA SEA: Punt
2 Q1 10:28 Illegal Contact on the Seahawks (Devon Witherspoon), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 9 flags in 1359 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +8% BUF BUF: Touchdown
3 Q1 6:46 The Bills converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +8% BUF BUF: Touchdown
4 Q1 1:16 K. Coleman dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 24 catchable balls before thisFalse Start on the Bills, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +6% SEA BUF: Punt
5 Q2 9:51 The Seahawks fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% SEA SEA: Field goal
6 Q2 4:46 The Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +10% BUF SEA: End of half
7 Q2 4:05 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Keon Coleman), 4 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 272 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +8% SEA SEA: End of half
8 Q2 2:55 The Bills converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedThe Bills fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +13% BUF BUF: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Rayshawn Jenkins (SEA SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Stone Forsythe (SEA T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Tre Brown (SEA CB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Terrel Bernard (BUF LB), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 100% · Seahawks 0%

Final margin
Bills by 21
Luck in points
2.1 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 18.9
Replay with same day's form
Bills 97% · Seahawks 3% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2024 games · Bills · Seahawks

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