luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 8 2024 · October 27, 2024

Eagles at Bengals, Week 8 2024: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Bengals 37–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 9 of 10.

An off day for the Bengals: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Eagles they would win 52% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Bengals were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:13 left): E. McPherson missed a 54-yard field goal, worth 10 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 37
Cincinnati Bengals 17

October 27, 2024 · Paycor Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −2.5

Luck index +7 Eagles about even · −7 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 9, Bengals win 1.

  1. 1 PHI 31 CIN 0
  2. 2 PHI 27 CIN 3
  3. 3 PHI 41 CIN 21
  4. 4 PHI 33 CIN 17
  5. 5 PHI 27 CIN 14
  6. 6 PHI 34 CIN 24
  7. 7 PHI 24 CIN 16
  8. 8 PHI 16 CIN 10
  9. 9 PHI 19 CIN 17
  10. 10 PHI 9 CIN 14

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Bengals

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Eagles they would win 52% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%.

45 points apart for the Bengals: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Eagles offenseEPA per play gained +0.35 +0.14 better by 0.21
Eagles defenseEPA per play allowed +0.15 +0.09 worse by 0.06
Bengals offenseEPA per play gained +0.15 +0.12 better by 0.02
Bengals defenseEPA per play allowed +0.35 +0.13 worse by 0.22

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 93% of them, Bengals 7%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+51.2%
Eagles by 9–1623.9%
Eagles by 1–816.9%
Level after regulation1.7%
Bengals by 1–84.7%
Bengals by 9–161.4%
Bengals by 17+0.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.8 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Eagles by 20, without the luck Eagles by 16.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 39 yds made · 90% expected
  • E. McPherson, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • E. McPherson, 54 yds missed · 68% expected
  • J. Elliott, 49 yds made · 73% expected
  • J. Elliott, 47 yds made · 78% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Eagles 4 for 40 yards, Bengals 1 for 3 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 0:18 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% CIN +1.6 pts
Q2 2:03 False Start on the Eagles (DeVonta Smith), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CIN +0.6 pts
Q2 2:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles, 15 yards +5% CIN +1.4 pts
Q2 1:24 Illegal Use of Hands on the Bengals (Cam Taylor-Britt), 3 yards +2% PHI +1.3 pts
Q4 2:24 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards 0% CIN +0.9 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 81%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:43 The Bengals converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +8% CIN CIN: Touchdown
2 Q1 6:29 The Bengals converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +5% CIN CIN: Touchdown
3 Q2 13:05 The Bengals got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +6% CIN CIN: Field goal
4 Q2 12:59 The Bengals converted 3rd & 223rd & 4th downs · 17% expected +9% CIN CIN: Field goal
5 Q2 11:24 The Bengals converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +5% CIN CIN: Field goal
6 Q2 5:13 E. McPherson missed a 54-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 41 of 55 from 45+ before +10% PHI CIN: End of half
7 Q2 1:44 The Eagles converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +9% PHI PHI: Touchdown
8 Q3 13:40 The Eagles converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +6% PHI PHI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tee Higgins (CIN WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Trent Brown (CIN T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Daxton Hill (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Dallas Goedert (PHI TE), out · 1.0 pts
  • Jordan Mailata (PHI T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • James Bradberry (PHI CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Mekhi Becton (PHI T), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 99% · Bengals 1%

Final margin
Eagles by 20
Luck in points
3.8 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 16.2
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 93% · Bengals 7% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2024 games · Eagles · Bengals

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