luckadjusted

Week 8 2024 · October 27, 2024

Eagles at Bengals, Week 8 2024: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Bengals 37–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 9 of 10. The Bengals had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 2.6 points to the Bengals.

An off day for the Bengals: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Eagles they would win 52% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Bengals were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:13 left): E. McPherson missed 54-yard field goal, worth 10 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 37
Cincinnati Bengals 17

October 27, 2024 · Paycor Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −2.5

Luck index +11 Eagles about even · −11 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 9, Bengals win 1.

  1. 1 PHI 36 CIN 6
  2. 2 PHI 36 CIN 14
  3. 3 PHI 28 CIN 10
  4. 4 PHI 37 CIN 21
  5. 5 PHI 34 CIN 21
  6. 6 PHI 20 CIN 10
  7. 7 PHI 31 CIN 24
  8. 8 PHI 33 CIN 28
  9. 9 PHI 19 CIN 17
  10. 10 PHI 20 CIN 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Bengals

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Eagles they would win 52% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%.

41 points apart for the Bengals: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Eagles offenseEPA per play gained +0.35 +0.14 better by 0.21
Eagles defenseEPA per play allowed +0.15 +0.09 worse by 0.06
Bengals offenseEPA per play gained +0.15 +0.12 better by 0.02
Bengals defenseEPA per play allowed +0.35 +0.13 worse by 0.22

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 89% of them, Bengals 11%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+40.6%
Eagles by 9–1627.7%
Eagles by 1–819.9%
Level after regulation1.3%
Bengals by 1–87.7%
Bengals by 9–162.3%
Bengals by 17+0.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Eagles by 20. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Eagles by 17.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 39 yds made · 89% expected
  • E. McPherson, 27 yds made · 99% expected
  • E. McPherson, 54 yds missed · 68% expected
  • J. Elliott, 49 yds made · 75% expected
  • J. Elliott, 47 yds made · 78% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 81%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:43 The Bengals converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +8% CIN CIN: Touchdown
2 Q2 12:59 The Bengals converted 3rd & 223rd & 4th downs · 15% expected +9% CIN CIN: Field goal
3 Q2 11:24 The Bengals converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +5% CIN CIN: Field goal
4 Q2 8:49 The Eagles converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +5% PHI PHI: Punt
5 Q2 5:13 E. McPherson missed 54-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 41 of 55 from 45+ before +10% PHI CIN: End of half
6 Q2 1:44 The Eagles converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +9% PHI PHI: Touchdown
7 Q2 0:25 The Eagles converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +10% PHI PHI: Touchdown
8 Q3 13:40 The Eagles converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +7% PHI PHI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tee Higgins (CIN WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Trent Brown (CIN T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Daxton Hill (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Dallas Goedert (PHI TE), out · 1.0 pts
  • Jordan Mailata (PHI T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • James Bradberry (PHI CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Mekhi Becton (PHI T), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 100% · Bengals 0%

Final margin
Eagles by 20
Luck in points
2.5 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 17.5
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 89% · Bengals 11% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2024 games · Eagles · Bengals

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