luckadjusted

Week 8 2024 · October 27, 2024

Saints at Chargers, Week 8 2024: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Saints 26–8 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Saints had the bounces: drops alone were worth 1.9 points to the Saints.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 10:21 left): Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 9 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

New Orleans Saints 8
Los Angeles Chargers 26

October 27, 2024 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −7

Luck index +24 Chargers about even · −24 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 2, Chargers win 8.

  1. 1 NO 29 LAC 16
  2. 2 NO 24 LAC 19
  3. 3 NO 15 LAC 17
  4. 4 NO 27 LAC 31
  5. 5 NO 16 LAC 22
  6. 6 NO 14 LAC 23
  7. 7 NO 7 LAC 19
  8. 8 NO 9 LAC 24
  9. 9 NO 6 LAC 27
  10. 10 NO 20 LAC 50

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 24% of them, Chargers 76%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+3.0%
Saints by 9–167.4%
Saints by 1–812.7%
Level after regulation1.9%
Chargers by 1–824.6%
Chargers by 9–1620.5%
Chargers by 17+29.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chargers by 18. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chargers by 10.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Dicker, 46 yds made · 85% expected
  • B. Grupe, 40 yds made · 89% expected
  • B. Grupe, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • C. Dicker, 29 yds made · 99% expected
  • B. Grupe, 44 yds missed · 84% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 36% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:27 The Chargers were stopped on 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +8% NO LAC: Punt
2 Q2 10:21 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% LAC LAC: Touchdown
3 Q2 2:01 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Marshon Lattimore), 17 yardsJudgment calls · 26 flags in 4308 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +6% LAC LAC: Touchdown
4 Q2 1:40 The Chargers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +6% LAC LAC: Touchdown
5 Q2 1:37 The Chargers missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the time +6% NO LAC: End of half
6 Q2 0:29 The Saints converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +8% NO NO: Field goal
7 Q4 6:53 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedA. Kamara dropped a catchable passDrops · 10 drops on 191 catchable balls before thisFalse Start on the Saints, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +7% LAC NO: Missed field goal
8 Q4 0:05 Roughing the Passer on the Chargers (Bud Dupree), 4 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 10 flags in 3540 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +8% NO NO: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Quentin Johnston (LAC WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Asante Samuel Jr. (LAC CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Hayden Hurst (LAC TE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jordan McFadden (LAC G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Derek Carr (NO QB), out, replaced by s.rattler · 5.3 pts
  • Paulson Adebo (NO CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Rashid Shaheed (NO WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Erik McCoy (NO C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Will Harris (NO FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 2% · Chargers 98%

Final margin
Chargers by 18
Luck in points
7.1 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 10.9
Replay with same day's form
Saints 24% · Chargers 76% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2024 games · Saints · Chargers

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