luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 8 2024 · October 27, 2024

Saints at Chargers, Week 8 2024: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Saints 26–8, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 10:21 left): Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 9 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

New Orleans Saints 8
Los Angeles Chargers 26

October 27, 2024 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −7

Luck index +28 Chargers lucky · −28 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 3, Chargers win 7.

  1. 1 NO 44 LAC 26
  2. 2 NO 37 LAC 29
  3. 3 NO 26 LAC 23
  4. 4 NO 30 LAC 32
  5. 5 NO 17 LAC 22
  6. 6 NO 20 LAC 29
  7. 7 NO 13 LAC 26
  8. 8 NO 16 LAC 32
  9. 9 NO 6 LAC 27
  10. 10 NO 17 LAC 46

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 28% of them, Chargers 72%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+4.2%
Saints by 9–168.6%
Saints by 1–813.6%
Level after regulation3.8%
Chargers by 1–824.0%
Chargers by 9–1620.3%
Chargers by 17+25.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.9 points to the Chargers: the final margin was Chargers by 18, without the luck Chargers by 12.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Dicker, 46 yds made · 85% expected
  • B. Grupe, 40 yds made · 90% expected
  • B. Grupe, 43 yds made · 86% expected
  • C. Dicker, 29 yds made · 98% expected
  • B. Grupe, 44 yds missed · 84% expected
  • Extra point missed · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Saints 7 for 66 yards, Chargers 4 for 34 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:38 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% LAC +1.5 pts
Q2 14:16 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Saints (Bub Means), 10 yards +3% LAC +0.8 pts
Q2 10:21 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the play +9% LAC +2.0 pts
Q2 2:01 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Marshon Lattimore), 17 yards +6% LAC +1.8 pts
Q2 1:57 False Start on the Chargers (Eric Tomlinson), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NO +0.6 pts
Q2 1:13 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Saints, 4 yards +3% LAC +0.7 pts
Q3 8:48 Unnecessary Roughness on the Chargers (Otito Ogbonnia), 15 yards +4% NO +1.8 pts
Q3 7:11 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% LAC +2.1 pts
Q4 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards +2% NO +1.4 pts
Q4 6:53 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LAC +0.5 pts
Q4 0:05 Roughing the Passer on the Chargers (Bud Dupree), 4 yards, wiping out the play 0% NO +4.0 pts

Saints penalties, every game · Chargers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 36% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:27 The Chargers were stopped on 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +8% NO LAC: Punt
2 Q2 10:21 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% LAC LAC: Touchdown
3 Q2 2:01 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Marshon Lattimore), 17 yardsJudgment calls · 26 flags in 4308 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +6% LAC LAC: Touchdown
4 Q2 1:37 The Chargers missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the time +6% NO LAC: End of half
5 Q2 0:29 The Saints converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +8% NO NO: Field goal
6 Q3 7:11 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% LAC LAC: Punt
7 Q3 1:12 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +4% LAC NO: Field goal
8 Q4 6:53 A. Kamara dropped a catchable passDrops · 10 drops on 191 catchable balls before thisFalse Start on the Saints, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +7% LAC NO: Missed field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Quentin Johnston (LAC WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Asante Samuel Jr. (LAC CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Hayden Hurst (LAC TE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jordan McFadden (LAC G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Derek Carr (NO QB), out, replaced by s.rattler · 5.3 pts
  • Paulson Adebo (NO CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Rashid Shaheed (NO WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Erik McCoy (NO C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Will Harris (NO FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 0% · Chargers 100%

Final margin
Chargers by 18
Luck in points
5.9 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 12.1
Replay with same day's form
Saints 28% · Chargers 72% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2024 games · Saints · Chargers

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