Week 14 2024 · December 8, 2024
Seahawks at Cardinals, Week 14 2024: who deserved to win?
The Seahawks beat the Cardinals 30–18, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.
Before kickoff the Cardinals were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:19 left): C. Ryland missed a 40-yard field goal, worth 11 points of win probability to the Seahawks.
Final
 Seattle Seahawks | 30 |
|---|---|
 Arizona Cardinals | 18 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +24 Seahawks about even · −24 Cardinals
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Seahawks win 8, Cardinals win 2.
- 1 SEA 48 ARI 17
- 2 SEA 33 ARI 10
- 3 SEA 35 ARI 19
- 4 SEA 41 ARI 28
- 5 SEA 27 ARI 17
- 6 SEA 23 ARI 16
- 7 SEA 24 ARI 20
- 8 SEA 19 ARI 17
- 9 SEA 31 ARI 34
- 10 SEA 20 ARI 34
Your call
Did the Seahawks earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Seahawks win 76% of them, Cardinals 24%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 12.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Seahawks by 17+ | 31.4% |
| Seahawks by 9–16 | 19.2% |
| Seahawks by 1–8 | 25.2% |
| Level after regulation | 2.3% |
| Cardinals by 1–8 | 12.3% |
| Cardinals by 9–16 | 6.1% |
| Cardinals by 17+ | 3.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Myers, 20 yds made · 99% expected
- C. Ryland, 28 yds made · 96% expected
- J. Myers, 36 yds made · 94% expected
- C. Ryland, 40 yds missed · 88% expected
- J. Myers, 35 yds made · 94% expected
Penalties: Seahawks 9 for 62 yards, Cardinals 6 for 49 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:08 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ARI +0.1 pts |
| Q1 5:38 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SEA +0.7 pts |
| Q1 4:07 | Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% SEA +2.6 pts |
| Q2 10:26 | Intentional Grounding on the Seahawks (Geno Smith), 12 yards | +2% ARI +0.5 pts |
| Q2 5:10 | Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% ARI +2.4 pts |
| Q2 4:04 | Delay of Game on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ARI +0.3 pts |
| Q2 2:02 | Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards | +3% SEA +1.0 pts |
| Q3 11:24 | Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% SEA +2.4 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% ARI +0.8 pts |
| Q4 13:39 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Marvin Harrison Jr.), 9 yards | +1% SEA +1.0 pts |
| Q4 12:05 | Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% ARI +1.4 pts |
| Q4 12:05 | False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARI +0.7 pts |
| Q4 10:42 | Defensive Offside on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SEA +0.6 pts |
| Q4 1:56 | False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SEA +0.5 pts |
| Q4 0:22 | Defensive Offside on the Seahawks (Dre'Mont Jones), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SEA +0.3 pts |
Seahawks penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Cardinals’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:44 | The Cardinals converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +7% ARI | ARI: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 4:07 | Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +6% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 5:10 | Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +6% ARI | ARI: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 3:57 | The Seahawks converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +9% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 15:00 | The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedFalse Start on the Seahawks, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +6% ARI | SEA: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 10:38 | The Cardinals fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% ARI | ARI: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q4 7:26 | The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +6% SEA | ARI: Missed field goal |
| 8 | Q4 7:19 | C. Ryland missed a 40-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him | +11% SEA | ARI: End of game |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Stone Forsythe (SEA T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Kenneth Walker III (SEA RB), out · 0.3 pts
- Anthony Bradford (SEA G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Seahawks 87% · Cardinals 13%
- Final margin
- Seahawks by 12
- Luck in points
- 5.0 for the Seahawks
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Seahawks by 7.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Seahawks 76% · Cardinals 24% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2024 games · 
Seahawks · 
Cardinals
More from Week 14 2024
- Packers at Lions DET 34–31 · replay 44% for the winner
- Falcons at Vikings MIN 42–21 · replay 83% for the winner
- Panthers at Eagles PHI 22–16 · replay 79% for the winner
- Browns at Steelers PIT 27–14 · replay 94% for the winner
- Jaguars at Titans JAX 10–6 · replay 72% for the winner
- Raiders at Buccaneers TB 28–13 · replay 96% for the winner
- Saints at Giants NO 14–11 · replay 91% for the winner
- Jets at Dolphins MIA 32–26 · replay 51% for the winner
- Bills at Rams LA 44–42 · replay 34% for the winner
- Bears at 49ers SF 38–13 · replay 99% for the winner
- Chargers at Chiefs KC 19–17 · replay 80% for the winner
- Bengals at Cowboys CIN 27–20 · replay 91% for the winner