Week 14 2024 · December 8, 2024
Jaguars at Titans, Week 14 2024: who deserved to win?
The Jaguars beat the Titans 10–6, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Titans.
Before kickoff the Titans were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:15 left): the Titans were stopped on 4th & 3, worth 36 points of win probability to the Jaguars.
Final
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 10 |
|---|---|
 Tennessee Titans | 6 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +28 Jaguars lucky · −28 Titans
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Jaguars win 7, Titans win 3.
- 1 JAX 30 TEN 7
- 2 JAX 17 TEN 0
- 3 JAX 16 TEN 3
- 4 JAX 19 TEN 10
- 5 JAX 30 TEN 23
- 6 JAX 7 TEN 3
- 7 JAX 19 TEN 17
- 8 JAX 13 TEN 16
- 9 JAX 0 TEN 9
- 10 JAX 13 TEN 30
Your call
Did the Jaguars earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Jaguars win 72% of them, Titans 28%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Jaguars by 17+ | 17.7% |
| Jaguars by 9–16 | 24.1% |
| Jaguars by 1–8 | 28.8% |
| Level after regulation | 3.7% |
| Titans by 1–8 | 16.6% |
| Titans by 9–16 | 7.0% |
| Titans by 17+ | 2.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- N. Folk, 46 yds made · 82% expected
- N. Folk, 39 yds made · 91% expected
- C. Little, 23 yds made · 98% expected
Penalties: Jaguars 5 for 39 yards, Titans 4 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 4:02 | False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TEN +0.5 pts |
| Q1 2:55 | False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% JAX +0.7 pts |
| Q2 5:42 | Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +8% JAX +3.0 pts |
| Q2 5:37 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Jarrian Jones), 10 yards | +5% TEN +1.9 pts |
| Q2 0:12 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Brian Thomas), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +9% TEN +1.6 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Yasir Abdullah), 10 yards | +2% TEN +0.8 pts |
| Q3 12:32 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Jaguars (Montaric Brown), 4 yards | 0% TEN +0.4 pts |
| Q4 12:09 | Illegal Formation on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% JAX +0.5 pts |
| Q4 0:34 | False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% JAX +0.1 pts |
Jaguars penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Titans’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 5:26 | The Jaguars converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +10% JAX | JAX: Turnover |
| 2 | Q2 4:46 | The Titans were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +10% JAX | TEN: End of half |
| 3 | Q2 0:12 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Brian Thomas), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 529 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 | +9% TEN | TEN: End of half |
| 4 | Q2 0:07 | The Jaguars were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws | +15% TEN | JAX: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 14:13 | The Jaguars converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +9% JAX | JAX: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 8:01 | The Jaguars converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +9% JAX | JAX: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 1:15 | The Titans were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +36% JAX | TEN: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 0:38 | The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedThe Titans got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws | +9% TEN | TEN: Turnover on downs |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Quandre Diggs (TEN FS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Lloyd Cushenberry III (TEN C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Roger McCreary (TEN CB), out · 0.4 pts
- Jerome Baker (TEN LB), out · 0.4 pts
- Jack Gibbens (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Trevor Lawrence (JAX QB), out (IR), replaced by m.jones · 4.9 pts
- Anton Harrison (JAX T), out · 1.1 pts
- Christian Kirk (JAX WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Jaguars 80% · Titans 20%
- Final margin
- Jaguars by 4
- Luck in points
- 3.9 for the Titans
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Jaguars by 7.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Jaguars 72% · Titans 28% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2024 games · 
Jaguars · 
Titans
More from Week 14 2024
- Packers at Lions DET 34–31 · replay 44% for the winner
- Falcons at Vikings MIN 42–21 · replay 83% for the winner
- Panthers at Eagles PHI 22–16 · replay 79% for the winner
- Browns at Steelers PIT 27–14 · replay 94% for the winner
- Raiders at Buccaneers TB 28–13 · replay 96% for the winner
- Saints at Giants NO 14–11 · replay 91% for the winner
- Jets at Dolphins MIA 32–26 · replay 51% for the winner
- Seahawks at Cardinals SEA 30–18 · replay 77% for the winner
- Bills at Rams LA 44–42 · replay 34% for the winner
- Bears at 49ers SF 38–13 · replay 99% for the winner
- Chargers at Chiefs KC 19–17 · replay 80% for the winner
- Bengals at Cowboys CIN 27–20 · replay 91% for the winner