luckadjusted

Week 14 2024 · December 8, 2024

Panthers at Eagles, Week 14 2024: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Panthers 22–16 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 2.3 points to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 85% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:52 left): X. Legette dropped a catchable pass, worth 29 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Carolina Panthers 16
Philadelphia Eagles 22

December 8, 2024 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −14

Luck index +32 Eagles lucky · −32 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 3, Eagles win 7.

  1. 1 CAR 17 PHI 3
  2. 2 CAR 13 PHI 6
  3. 3 CAR 13 PHI 10
  4. 4 CAR 15 PHI 16
  5. 5 CAR 17 PHI 20
  6. 6 CAR 13 PHI 19
  7. 7 CAR 13 PHI 21
  8. 8 CAR 17 PHI 29
  9. 9 CAR 10 PHI 26
  10. 10 CAR 3 PHI 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 32% of them, Eagles 68%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+2.8%
Panthers by 9–168.6%
Panthers by 1–819.9%
Level after regulation2.7%
Eagles by 1–830.4%
Eagles by 9–1622.1%
Eagles by 17+13.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Eagles by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Eagles by 7.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. Pineiro, 38 yds made · 88% expected
  • J. Elliott, 52 yds missed · 63% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 42% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:00 The Panthers converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +9% CAR CAR: Punt
2 Q2 2:00 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expectedThe Panthers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +20% PHI CAR: End of half
3 Q3 4:59 The Panthers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +10% CAR CAR: Touchdown
4 Q3 0:29 The Eagles converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +16% PHI PHI: Touchdown
5 Q4 2:47 The Panthers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +9% CAR CAR: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 1:23 The Panthers converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +15% CAR CAR: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 0:52 X. Legette dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 46 catchable balls before this +29% PHI CAR: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:37 The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedIllegal Blindside Block on the Panthers, 15 yardsJudgment callsDelay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +21% PHI CAR: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dallas Goedert (PHI TE), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Reed Blankenship (PHI SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jalen Coker (CAR WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jadeveon Clowney (CAR LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Nick Scott (CAR SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 9% · Eagles 91%

Final margin
Eagles by 6
Luck in points
1.4 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 7.4
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 32% · Eagles 68% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2024 games · Panthers · Eagles

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