luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 14 2024 · December 8, 2024

Raiders at Buccaneers, Week 14 2024: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Raiders 28–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 1:46 left): the Raiders got away with an interception-worthy throw, worth 10 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28

December 8, 2024 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −7

Luck index +4 Buccaneers about even · −4 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 0, Buccaneers win 10.

  1. 1 LV 24 TB 27
  2. 2 LV 16 TB 22
  3. 3 LV 19 TB 27
  4. 4 LV 24 TB 35
  5. 5 LV 7 TB 23
  6. 6 LV 6 TB 24
  7. 7 LV 13 TB 34
  8. 8 LV 7 TB 31
  9. 9 LV 20 TB 48
  10. 10 LV 10 TB 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 4% of them, Buccaneers 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 15.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+0.1%
Raiders by 9–160.9%
Raiders by 1–83.0%
Level after regulation0.5%
Buccaneers by 1–810.0%
Buccaneers by 9–1621.4%
Buccaneers by 17+64.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.1 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Buccaneers by 15, without the luck Buccaneers by 12.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • D. Carlson, 27 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Raiders 3 for 31 yards, Buccaneers 5 for 31 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +1% LV +0.9 pts
Q1 2:39 Illegal Blindside Block on the Raiders, 15 yards, wiping out the play +5% TB +2.8 pts
Q2 9:31 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Vi Jones), 1 yard +3% LV +1.5 pts
Q2 8:39 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LV +0.4 pts
Q2 2:53 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +7% LV +1.5 pts
Q2 1:14 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Jack Jones), 11 yards +8% TB +2.4 pts
Q3 5:46 Illegal Shift on the Raiders, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +7% TB +1.2 pts
Q3 3:19 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LV +0.9 pts

Raiders penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 2:53 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yardsJudgment calls +7% LV LV: End of half
2 Q2 1:14 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Jack Jones), 11 yardsJudgment calls · 9 flags in 1702 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +8% TB TB: Turnover
3 Q3 6:30 The Raiders converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +7% LV LV: Turnover
4 Q3 4:45 The Raiders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +7% TB LV: Punt
5 Q3 1:46 The Raiders got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +10% LV LV: Punt
6 Q3 0:18 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +7% TB TB: Punt
7 Q4 13:28 The Raiders fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% LV LV: Punt
8 Q4 11:03 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +7% TB TB: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Chris Godwin (TB WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Jordan Whitehead (TB SS), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (TB LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • K.J. Britt (TB LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Nate Hobbs (LV CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • DJ Turner (LV WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jakorian Bennett (LV CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Alexander Mattison (LV RB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 2% · Buccaneers 98%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 15
Luck in points
2.1 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 12.9
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 4% · Buccaneers 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2024 games · Raiders · Buccaneers

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