luckadjusted

Week 14 2024 · December 8, 2024

Raiders at Buccaneers, Week 14 2024: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Raiders 28–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:08 left): the Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 3, worth 11 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28

December 8, 2024 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −7

Luck index +5 Buccaneers about even · −5 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 0, Buccaneers win 10.

  1. 1 LV 21 TB 24
  2. 2 LV 21 TB 26
  3. 3 LV 9 TB 17
  4. 4 LV 27 TB 38
  5. 5 LV 17 TB 31
  6. 6 LV 14 TB 30
  7. 7 LV 13 TB 33
  8. 8 LV 17 TB 40
  9. 9 LV 0 TB 28
  10. 10 LV 10 TB 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 5% of them, Buccaneers 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 15.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+0.2%
Raiders by 9–160.7%
Raiders by 1–83.6%
Level after regulation0.5%
Buccaneers by 1–813.5%
Buccaneers by 9–1620.2%
Buccaneers by 17+61.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Buccaneers by 15. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Buccaneers by 12.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 25 yds made · 99% expected
  • D. Carlson, 27 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 13:40 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedThe Buccaneers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +10% LV TB: Turnover
2 Q2 12:08 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expectedThe Buccaneers fumbled and the Raiders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% LV TB: Punt
3 Q2 6:39 The Raiders converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +8% LV LV: Field goal
4 Q2 1:14 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Jack Jones), 11 yardsJudgment calls · 9 flags in 1702 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +8% TB TB: Turnover
5 Q3 4:45 The Raiders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +8% TB LV: Punt
6 Q3 1:46 The Raiders got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +8% LV LV: Punt
7 Q4 13:28 The Raiders fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% LV LV: Punt
8 Q4 11:03 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +9% TB TB: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Chris Godwin (TB WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Jordan Whitehead (TB SS), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (TB LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • K.J. Britt (TB LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Nate Hobbs (LV CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • DJ Turner (LV WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jakorian Bennett (LV CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Alexander Mattison (LV RB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 3% · Buccaneers 97%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 15
Luck in points
2.7 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 12.3
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 5% · Buccaneers 95% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2024 games · Raiders · Buccaneers

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