luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 14 2024 · December 8, 2024

Browns at Steelers, Week 14 2024: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Browns 27–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Steelers win 9 of 10. The Browns had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 6:04 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Mike Williams), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 10 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Cleveland Browns 14
Pittsburgh Steelers 27

December 8, 2024 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −6

Luck index +6 Steelers about even · −6 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 1, Steelers win 9.

  1. 1 CLE 19 PIT 13
  2. 2 CLE 16 PIT 19
  3. 3 CLE 10 PIT 16
  4. 4 CLE 9 PIT 19
  5. 5 CLE 7 PIT 20
  6. 6 CLE 14 PIT 29
  7. 7 CLE 13 PIT 31
  8. 8 CLE 10 PIT 32
  9. 9 CLE 9 PIT 35
  10. 10 CLE 6 PIT 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 6% of them, Steelers 94%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+0.2%
Browns by 9–161.6%
Browns by 1–84.2%
Level after regulation0.8%
Steelers by 1–814.6%
Steelers by 9–1620.9%
Steelers by 17+57.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.4 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Steelers by 13, without the luck Steelers by 8.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. Boswell, 54 yds made · 69% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 38 yds missed · 89% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 43 yds missed · 81% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Browns 9 for 81 yards, Steelers 6 for 61 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Browns (Shelby Harris), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PIT +0.5 pts
Q1 10:07 Illegal Formation on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CLE +1.2 pts
Q1 4:48 Intentional Grounding on the Steelers (Russell Wilson), 11 yards +3% CLE +1.0 pts
Q1 3:52 Roughing the Passer on the Steelers (Alex Highsmith), 15 yards +9% CLE +1.8 pts
Q1 2:43 Delay of Game on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PIT +0.7 pts
Q2 12:33 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Greg Newsome II), 16 yards +8% PIT +2.0 pts
Q2 6:04 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Mike Williams), 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% CLE +3.3 pts
Q3 14:50 Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers (Joey Porter Jr.), 15 yards +6% CLE +1.3 pts
Q3 13:20 Offensive Pass Interference on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the play +9% PIT +2.6 pts
Q3 2:21 Illegal Shift on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.9 pts
Q4 15:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Browns, 15 yards 0% PIT +1.4 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PIT +0.9 pts
Q4 13:14 Taunting on the Browns (Kadarius Toney), 15 yards 0% PIT +1.3 pts
Q4 13:06 False Start on the Browns (Jerry Jeudy), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PIT +0.6 pts
Q4 3:48 False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.2 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 28% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:57 The Browns converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +7% CLE CLE: Touchdown
2 Q1 4:48 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Steelers (Russell Wilson), 11 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 5439 snaps before, position avg 1 per 658 +7% CLE PIT: Punt
3 Q1 3:52 Roughing the Passer on the Steelers (Alex Highsmith), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 14 flags in 4036 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +9% CLE CLE: Punt
4 Q2 12:33 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Greg Newsome II), 16 yardsJudgment calls · 10 flags in 3155 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +8% PIT PIT: Touchdown
5 Q2 6:04 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Mike Williams), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 5 flags in 3781 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +10% CLE CLE: Missed field goal
6 Q2 3:01 The Browns converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +10% CLE CLE: Missed field goal
7 Q2 0:28 D. Hopkins missed a 38-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him +10% PIT CLE: Missed field goal
8 Q3 13:20 Offensive Pass Interference on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% PIT PIT: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • George Pickens (PIT WR), out · 1.2 pts
  • Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Cedric Tillman (CLE WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Dawand Jones (CLE T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 8% · Steelers 92%

Final margin
Steelers by 13
Luck in points
4.4 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 8.6
Replay with same day's form
Browns 6% · Steelers 94% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2024 games · Browns · Steelers

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