luckadjusted

Week 14 2024 · December 8, 2024

Browns at Steelers, Week 14 2024: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Browns 27–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Steelers win 9 of 10. The Browns had the bounces: drops alone were worth 2.5 points to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:57 left): the Browns converted 3rd & 9, worth 13 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Cleveland Browns 14
Pittsburgh Steelers 27

December 8, 2024 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −6

Luck index +14 Steelers about even · −14 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 1, Steelers win 9.

  1. 1 CLE 24 PIT 16
  2. 2 CLE 27 PIT 29
  3. 3 CLE 24 PIT 29
  4. 4 CLE 6 PIT 13
  5. 5 CLE 12 PIT 23
  6. 6 CLE 10 PIT 23
  7. 7 CLE 18 PIT 33
  8. 8 CLE 3 PIT 20
  9. 9 CLE 13 PIT 34
  10. 10 CLE 17 PIT 47

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 14% of them, Steelers 86%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+0.9%
Browns by 9–163.7%
Browns by 1–88.5%
Level after regulation1.8%
Steelers by 1–820.0%
Steelers by 9–1623.6%
Steelers by 17+41.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Steelers by 13. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Steelers by 9.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 30 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Boswell, 54 yds made · 68% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 38 yds missed · 88% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 43 yds missed · 80% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 28% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:57 The Browns converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +13% CLE CLE: Touchdown
2 Q1 4:48 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Steelers (Russell Wilson), 11 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 5439 snaps before, position avg 1 per 658 +11% CLE PIT: Punt
3 Q1 3:52 Roughing the Passer on the Steelers (Alex Highsmith), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 14 flags in 4036 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +9% CLE CLE: Punt
4 Q2 12:33 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Greg Newsome II), 16 yardsJudgment calls · 10 flags in 3155 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +8% PIT PIT: Touchdown
5 Q2 6:04 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Mike Williams), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 5 flags in 3781 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +11% CLE CLE: Missed field goal
6 Q2 3:01 The Browns converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +10% CLE CLE: Missed field goal
7 Q2 0:28 D. Hopkins missed 38-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him +9% PIT CLE: Missed field goal
8 Q3 13:20 Offensive Pass Interference on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% PIT PIT: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • George Pickens (PIT WR), out · 1.2 pts
  • Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Cedric Tillman (CLE WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Dawand Jones (CLE T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 13% · Steelers 87%

Final margin
Steelers by 13
Luck in points
3.8 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 9.2
Replay with same day's form
Browns 14% · Steelers 86% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2024 games · Browns · Steelers

More from Week 14 2024