luckadjusted

Week 14 2024 · December 8, 2024

Chargers at Chiefs, Week 14 2024: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Chargers 19–17 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Chargers had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Chargers.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 64% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:01 left): M. Wright made 31-yard field goal, worth 29 points of win probability to the Chiefs.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 17
Kansas City Chiefs 19

December 8, 2024 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −5

Luck index +25 Chiefs lucky · −25 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 3, Chiefs win 7.

  1. 1 LAC 34 KC 17
  2. 2 LAC 27 KC 19
  3. 3 LAC 9 KC 6
  4. 4 LAC 14 KC 16
  5. 5 LAC 20 KC 24
  6. 6 LAC 17 KC 24
  7. 7 LAC 6 KC 16
  8. 8 LAC 14 KC 27
  9. 9 LAC 0 KC 17
  10. 10 LAC 10 KC 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 25% of them, Chiefs 75%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+2.4%
Chargers by 9–166.0%
Chargers by 1–814.8%
Level after regulation4.9%
Chiefs by 1–827.7%
Chiefs by 9–1622.9%
Chiefs by 17+21.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chiefs by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chiefs by 0.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Wright, 47 yds made · 75% expected
  • M. Wright, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • M. Wright, 50 yds made · 70% expected
  • C. Dicker, 37 yds made · 91% expected
  • M. Wright, 31 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 40% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 6:31 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedK. Vidal dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 3 catchable balls before this +8% KC LAC: Punt
2 Q2 4:36 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +12% KC KC: Touchdown
3 Q3 2:48 Defensive Offside on the Chargers (Joey Bosa), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 28 flags in 3044 snaps before, position avg 1 per 297 +25% KC KC: Field goal
4 Q4 13:09 M. Wright made 50-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 14 of 19 from 45+ before +8% KC KC: Field goal
5 Q4 8:13 The Chargers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +9% LAC LAC: Field goal
6 Q4 4:26 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +13% KC KC: Field goal
7 Q4 2:00 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +13% KC KC: Field goal
8 Q4 0:01 M. Wright made 31-yard field goalKicks · 96% expected for him +29% KC –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Harrison Butker (KC K), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jaylen Watson (KC CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Spencer Shrader (KC K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Ladd McConkey (LAC WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Alohi Gilman (LAC SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Simi Fehoko (LAC WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • J.K. Dobbins (LAC RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 45% · Chiefs 55%

Final margin
Chiefs by 2
Luck in points
1.9 for the Chiefs
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 0.1
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 25% · Chiefs 75% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2024 games · Chargers · Chiefs

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