Week 14 2024 · December 8, 2024
Chargers at Chiefs, Week 14 2024: who deserved to win?
The Chiefs beat the Chargers 19–17, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.
Before kickoff the Chiefs were 64% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 2:48 left): Defensive Offside on the Chargers (Joey Bosa), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 25 points of win probability to the Chiefs.
Final
 Los Angeles Chargers | 17 |
|---|---|
 Kansas City Chiefs | 19 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +20 Chiefs about even · −20 Chargers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Chargers win 2, Chiefs win 8.
- 1 LAC 28 KC 17
- 2 LAC 23 KC 20
- 3 LAC 28 KC 30
- 4 LAC 24 KC 27
- 5 LAC 23 KC 30
- 6 LAC 13 KC 22
- 7 LAC 13 KC 24
- 8 LAC 20 KC 34
- 9 LAC 6 KC 24
- 10 LAC 12 KC 37
Your call
Did the Chiefs earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Chargers win 20% of them, Chiefs 80%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Chargers by 17+ | 1.3% |
| Chargers by 9–16 | 5.2% |
| Chargers by 1–8 | 12.0% |
| Level after regulation | 2.4% |
| Chiefs by 1–8 | 29.6% |
| Chiefs by 9–16 | 22.7% |
| Chiefs by 17+ | 26.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- M. Wright, 47 yds made · 75% expected
- M. Wright, 33 yds made · 94% expected
- M. Wright, 50 yds made · 68% expected
- C. Dicker, 37 yds made · 92% expected
- M. Wright, 31 yds made · 95% expected
Penalties: Chargers 7 for 50 yards, Chiefs 8 for 98 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:43 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Chiefs (Nick Bolton), 15 yards | +5% LAC +1.8 pts |
| Q1 8:30 | Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +7% KC +1.6 pts |
| Q2 9:23 | Defensive Holding on the Chargers (Tarheeb Still), 5 yards | +3% KC +1.3 pts |
| Q2 9:17 | False Start on the Chiefs, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LAC +0.7 pts |
| Q2 6:20 | False Start on the Chiefs (Noah Gray), 4 yards · pre-snap | +2% LAC +0.6 pts |
| Q2 5:43 | Defensive Offside on the Chargers (Joey Bosa), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% KC +0.3 pts |
| Q2 4:36 | Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +12% KC +3.3 pts |
| Q2 1:43 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Kristian Fulton), 15 yards | +3% KC +0.8 pts |
| Q3 12:24 | Defensive Holding on the Chiefs (Derrick Nnadi), 5 yards | +1% LAC +0.9 pts |
| Q3 7:12 | Offensive Holding on the Chiefs (Jack Cochrane), 10 yards | +2% LAC +0.9 pts |
| Q3 5:42 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Justin Reid), 39 yards | +7% LAC +2.5 pts |
| Q3 2:48 | Defensive Offside on the Chargers (Joey Bosa), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +25% KC +2.3 pts |
| Q4 13:38 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Chiefs, 15 yards | +6% LAC +1.4 pts |
| Q4 7:35 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Chiefs (Chris Jones), 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% LAC +0.3 pts |
| Q4 4:35 | Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Chargers, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% KC 0.0 pts |
Chargers penalties, every game · Chiefs penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Chiefs’ chance of winning
As low as 40% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:30 | Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +7% KC | KC: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 4:36 | Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +12% KC | KC: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 5:42 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Justin Reid), 39 yardsJudgment calls · 10 flags in 6401 snaps before, position avg 1 per 462 | +7% LAC | LAC: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 2:48 | Defensive Offside on the Chargers (Joey Bosa), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 28 flags in 3044 snaps before, position avg 1 per 297 | +25% KC | KC: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 13:09 | M. Wright made a 50-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 14 of 19 from 45+ before | +9% KC | KC: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 8:13 | The Chargers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +9% LAC | LAC: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 4:26 | The Chiefs converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +13% KC | KC: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 2:00 | The Chiefs converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +13% KC | KC: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Harrison Butker (KC K), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Jaylen Watson (KC CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Spencer Shrader (KC K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Ladd McConkey (LAC WR), out · 0.9 pts
- Alohi Gilman (LAC SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Simi Fehoko (LAC WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- J.K. Dobbins (LAC RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Chargers 53% · Chiefs 47%
- Final margin
- Chiefs by 2
- Luck in points
- 3.0 for the Chiefs
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Chargers by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Chargers 20% · Chiefs 80% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2024 games · 
Chargers · 
Chiefs
More from Week 14 2024
- Packers at Lions DET 34–31 · replay 44% for the winner
- Falcons at Vikings MIN 42–21 · replay 83% for the winner
- Panthers at Eagles PHI 22–16 · replay 79% for the winner
- Browns at Steelers PIT 27–14 · replay 94% for the winner
- Jaguars at Titans JAX 10–6 · replay 72% for the winner
- Raiders at Buccaneers TB 28–13 · replay 96% for the winner
- Saints at Giants NO 14–11 · replay 91% for the winner
- Jets at Dolphins MIA 32–26 · replay 51% for the winner
- Seahawks at Cardinals SEA 30–18 · replay 77% for the winner
- Bills at Rams LA 44–42 · replay 34% for the winner
- Bears at 49ers SF 38–13 · replay 99% for the winner
- Bengals at Cowboys CIN 27–20 · replay 91% for the winner