Week 3 2024 · September 22, 2024
Lions at Cardinals, Week 3 2024: who deserved to win?
The Lions beat the Cardinals 20–13, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.
Before kickoff the Lions were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 7:06 left): Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Elijah Higgins), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 11 points of win probability to the Lions.
Final
 Detroit Lions | 20 |
|---|---|
 Arizona Cardinals | 13 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +23 Lions about even · −23 Cardinals
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Lions win 8, Cardinals win 2.
- 1 DET 47 ARI 20
- 2 DET 34 ARI 14
- 3 DET 28 ARI 13
- 4 DET 34 ARI 23
- 5 DET 28 ARI 20
- 6 DET 33 ARI 27
- 7 DET 30 ARI 27
- 8 DET 23 ARI 21
- 9 DET 40 ARI 44
- 10 DET 21 ARI 34
Your call
Did the Lions earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Lions win 77% of them, Cardinals 23%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Lions by 17+ | 28.1% |
| Lions by 9–16 | 20.7% |
| Lions by 1–8 | 27.4% |
| Level after regulation | 2.5% |
| Cardinals by 1–8 | 12.0% |
| Cardinals by 9–16 | 6.9% |
| Cardinals by 17+ | 2.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- M. Prater, 42 yds made · 87% expected
- M. Prater, 45 yds made · 85% expected
- Extra point missed · 94% expected
Penalties: Lions 9 for 79 yards, Cardinals 4 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:14 | Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% DET +1.7 pts |
| Q1 5:18 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Lions (Marcus Davenport), 5 yards | +2% ARI +0.5 pts |
| Q1 1:51 | False Start on the Lions (Sam LaPorta), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARI +0.7 pts |
| Q2 7:14 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Cardinals (Kei'Trel Clark), 10 yards | +2% DET +0.9 pts |
| Q2 7:06 | Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Elijah Higgins), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +11% DET +3.2 pts |
| Q2 5:57 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Terrion Arnold), 14 yards | +6% ARI +1.3 pts |
| Q2 2:20 | False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ARI +0.5 pts |
| Q2 0:29 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Lions (Jalen Reeves-Maybin), 15 yards | +4% ARI +1.8 pts |
| Q3 13:36 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Carlton Davis), 10 yards | +3% ARI +1.4 pts |
| Q3 10:54 | False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARI +1.1 pts |
| Q4 12:45 | Roughing the Passer on the Lions (Josh Paschal), 15 yards | +2% ARI +0.8 pts |
| Q4 12:00 | False Start on the Cardinals (Tip Reiman), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DET +0.6 pts |
| Q4 3:02 | False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARI +0.5 pts |
Lions penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Cardinals’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:22 | The Lions converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +5% DET | DET: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 14:25 | The Lions converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +5% DET | DET: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 7:06 | Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Elijah Higgins), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 378 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 | +11% DET | DET: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 5:57 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Terrion Arnold), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 120 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 | +6% ARI | ARI: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 2:00 | The Lions converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +7% DET | DET: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 6:48 | The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +6% DET | ARI: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q3 6:06 | The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +8% DET | ARI: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 2:20 | The Lions converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +6% DET | DET: End of game |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Ifeatu Melifonwu (DET CB), out · 0.3 pts
- Alex Anzalone (DET LB), out · 0.3 pts
- John Cominsky (DET DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Lions 91% · Cardinals 9%
- Final margin
- Lions by 7
- Luck in points
- 0.8 for the Lions
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Lions by 6.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Lions 77% · Cardinals 23% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2024 games · 
Lions · 
Cardinals
More from Week 3 2024
- Patriots at Jets NYJ 24–3 · replay 94% for the winner
- Bears at Colts IND 21–16 · replay 69% for the winner
- Broncos at Buccaneers DEN 26–7 · replay 71% for the winner
- Packers at Titans GB 30–14 · replay 93% for the winner
- Texans at Vikings MIN 34–7 · replay 85% for the winner
- Chargers at Steelers PIT 20–10 · replay 87% for the winner
- Giants at Browns NYG 21–15 · replay 81% for the winner
- Eagles at Saints PHI 15–12 · replay 93% for the winner
- Panthers at Raiders CAR 36–22 · replay 68% for the winner
- Dolphins at Seahawks SEA 24–3 · replay 36% for the winner
- Ravens at Cowboys BAL 28–25 · replay 97% for the winner
- 49ers at Rams LA 27–24 · replay 27% for the winner
- Chiefs at Falcons KC 22–17 · replay 79% for the winner
- Jaguars at Bills BUF 47–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Commanders at Bengals WAS 38–33 · replay 26% for the winner