Week 3 2024 · September 23, 2024
Commanders at Bengals, Week 3 2024: who deserved to win?
The Commanders beat the Bengals 38–33, but the replays lean toward the Bengals: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Commanders.
Before kickoff the Bengals were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 9:42 left): the Commanders fumbled and recovered it themselves, worth 13 points of win probability to the Commanders.
Final
 Washington Commanders | 38 |
|---|---|
 Cincinnati Bengals | 33 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +74 Commanders very lucky · −74 Bengals
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Commanders win 3, Bengals win 7.
- 1 WAS 17 CIN 0
- 2 WAS 23 CIN 16
- 3 WAS 27 CIN 24
- 4 WAS 17 CIN 19
- 5 WAS 20 CIN 24
- 6 WAS 23 CIN 30
- 7 WAS 24 CIN 33
- 8 WAS 7 CIN 20
- 9 WAS 7 CIN 24
- 10 WAS 7 CIN 30
Your call
Did the Commanders earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Commanders win 26% of them, Bengals 74%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Commanders by 17+ | 2.6% |
| Commanders by 9–16 | 5.9% |
| Commanders by 1–8 | 14.8% |
| Level after regulation | 5.3% |
| Bengals by 1–8 | 26.4% |
| Bengals by 9–16 | 23.4% |
| Bengals by 17+ | 21.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- E. McPherson, 48 yds missed · 79% expected
- E. McPherson, 28 yds made · 98% expected
- E. McPherson, 31 yds made · 97% expected
- A. Seibert, 42 yds made · 85% expected
Penalties: Commanders 3 for 28 yards, Bengals 5 for 16 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:54 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Bengals, 1 yard · pre-snap | +1% WAS +0.2 pts |
| Q1 5:50 | Defensive Offside on the Bengals (Germaine Pratt), 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% WAS 0.0 pts |
| Q3 12:18 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Bengals (Cam Taylor-Britt), 5 yards | +1% WAS +0.9 pts |
| Q3 3:03 | False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WAS 0.0 pts |
| Q4 9:42 | False Start on the Commanders (Zach Ertz), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CIN +0.4 pts |
| Q4 6:38 | False Start on the Commanders (Dyami Brown), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CIN +0.5 pts |
| Q4 0:53 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Noah Igbinoghene), 18 yards | +3% CIN +2.6 pts |
| Q4 0:40 | Illegal Formation on the Bengals (Andrei Iosivas), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WAS +0.5 pts |
Commanders penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Bengals’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:24 | The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +5% CIN | WAS: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 7:39 | The Commanders converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +5% WAS | WAS: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 1:12 | The Bengals converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +8% CIN | CIN: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q2 14:56 | E. McPherson missed a 48-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him, 39 of 50 from 45+ before | +5% WAS | CIN: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 5:32 | The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +4% WAS | CIN: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 0:30 | The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +5% WAS | CIN: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 9:42 | The Bengals’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedThe Commanders fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50False Start on the Commanders (Zach Ertz), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 16 flags in 3502 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 | +13% WAS | CIN: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 4:26 | The Commanders converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +6% WAS | WAS: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- B.J. Hill (CIN DT), out · 0.4 pts
- Sheldon Rankins (CIN DT), out · 0.3 pts
- Brad Robbins (CIN P), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
- Clelin Ferrell (WAS DE), out · 0.4 pts
- Emmanuel Forbes (WAS CB), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Commanders 48% · Bengals 52%
- Final margin
- Commanders by 5
- Luck in points
- 5.2 for the Commanders
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bengals by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Commanders 26% · Bengals 74% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2024 games · 
Commanders · 
Bengals
More from Week 3 2024
- Patriots at Jets NYJ 24–3 · replay 94% for the winner
- Bears at Colts IND 21–16 · replay 69% for the winner
- Broncos at Buccaneers DEN 26–7 · replay 71% for the winner
- Packers at Titans GB 30–14 · replay 93% for the winner
- Texans at Vikings MIN 34–7 · replay 85% for the winner
- Chargers at Steelers PIT 20–10 · replay 87% for the winner
- Giants at Browns NYG 21–15 · replay 81% for the winner
- Eagles at Saints PHI 15–12 · replay 93% for the winner
- Panthers at Raiders CAR 36–22 · replay 68% for the winner
- Dolphins at Seahawks SEA 24–3 · replay 36% for the winner
- Ravens at Cowboys BAL 28–25 · replay 97% for the winner
- Lions at Cardinals DET 20–13 · replay 77% for the winner
- 49ers at Rams LA 27–24 · replay 27% for the winner
- Chiefs at Falcons KC 22–17 · replay 79% for the winner
- Jaguars at Bills BUF 47–10 · replay 99% for the winner