luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 3 2024 · September 22, 2024

Broncos at Buccaneers, Week 3 2024: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Buccaneers 26–7, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 67% favorites.

Final

Denver Broncos 26
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

September 22, 2024 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −6

Luck index +29 Broncos lucky · −29 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 7, Buccaneers win 3.

  1. 1 DEN 43 TB 17
  2. 2 DEN 40 TB 21
  3. 3 DEN 27 TB 13
  4. 4 DEN 24 TB 13
  5. 5 DEN 17 TB 9
  6. 6 DEN 10 TB 6
  7. 7 DEN 19 TB 17
  8. 8 DEN 17 TB 20
  9. 9 DEN 12 TB 20
  10. 10 DEN 17 TB 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 71% of them, Buccaneers 29%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 19.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+21.6%
Broncos by 9–1621.4%
Broncos by 1–826.3%
Level after regulation4.2%
Buccaneers by 1–815.5%
Buccaneers by 9–167.5%
Buccaneers by 17+3.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.5 points to the Broncos: the final margin was Broncos by 19, without the luck Broncos by 16.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 43 yds made · 83% expected
  • W. Lutz, 38 yds made · 89% expected
  • W. Lutz, 33 yds made · 93% expected
  • W. Lutz, 43 yds made · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Broncos 4 for 35 yards, Buccaneers 5 for 19 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:53 Delay of Game on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TB +0.6 pts
Q1 5:10 Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers (Greg Gaines), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +6% DEN +2.9 pts
Q2 11:50 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards +3% TB +1.7 pts
Q2 10:36 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Broncos, 10 yards +2% TB +0.9 pts
Q2 1:54 False Start on the Buccaneers, 4 yards · pre-snap +2% DEN +1.0 pts
Q2 0:02 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Buccaneers (SirVocea Dennis), 0 yards 0% DEN 0.0 pts
Q3 0:44 Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers (Joe Tryon-Shoyinka), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% DEN +0.8 pts
Q3 0:20 Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers (YaYa Diaby), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DEN +0.3 pts
Q4 4:27 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Patrick Surtain II), 10 yards 0% TB +1.5 pts

Broncos penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:53 Delay of Game on the Broncos, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +3% TB TB: Punt
2 Q1 5:25 The Buccaneers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +4% DEN TB: Punt
3 Q1 5:10 Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers (Greg Gaines), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 3 flags in 2907 snaps before, position avg 1 per 528 +6% DEN DEN: Touchdown
4 Q1 3:02 The Broncos converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +3% DEN DEN: Touchdown
5 Q2 11:50 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yardsJudgment calls +3% TB TB: Turnover on downs
6 Q2 10:36 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedIllegal Block Above the Waist on the Broncos, 10 yardsJudgment calls +3% TB DEN: Field goal
7 Q2 4:42 The Broncos fumbled and the Buccaneers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +3% TB DEN: Field goal
8 Q3 7:12 The Broncos converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +4% DEN DEN: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Antoine Winfield Jr. (TB FS), out · 0.9 pts
  • Luke Goedeke (TB G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Calijah Kancey (TB DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Vita Vea (TB NT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Mike McGlinchey (DEN T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Baron Browning (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 100% · Buccaneers 0%

Final margin
Broncos by 19
Luck in points
2.5 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 16.5
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 71% · Buccaneers 29% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2024 games · Broncos · Buccaneers

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