luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 3 2024 · September 22, 2024

Bears at Colts, Week 3 2024: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Bears 21–16, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Colts were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 7:30 left): the Colts were stopped on 4th & 3, worth 9 points of win probability to the Bears.

Final

Chicago Bears 16
Indianapolis Colts 21

September 22, 2024 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −1.5

Luck index +31 Colts lucky · −31 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 3, Colts win 7.

  1. 1 CHI 28 IND 10
  2. 2 CHI 21 IND 13
  3. 3 CHI 16 IND 13
  4. 4 CHI 23 IND 25
  5. 5 CHI 23 IND 27
  6. 6 CHI 9 IND 16
  7. 7 CHI 20 IND 30
  8. 8 CHI 23 IND 37
  9. 9 CHI 17 IND 35
  10. 10 CHI 14 IND 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 31% of them, Colts 69%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+5.0%
Bears by 9–168.3%
Bears by 1–815.3%
Level after regulation3.1%
Colts by 1–825.4%
Colts by 9–1619.9%
Colts by 17+23.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.3 points to the Bears: the final margin was Colts by 5, without the luck Colts by 11.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 56 yds missed · 69% expected
  • C. Santos, 53 yds made · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bears 4 for 25 yards, Colts 9 for 78 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:33 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Colts, 5 yards, wiping out the play +4% CHI +1.8 pts
Q1 8:27 Roughing the Passer on the Colts (E.J. Speed), 15 yards +3% CHI +0.7 pts
Q1 8:21 False Start on the Bears (Marcedes Lewis), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% IND +0.7 pts
Q1 7:37 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Nick Cross), 21 yards +6% CHI +2.1 pts
Q2 4:32 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Jaylon Jones), 5 yards +2% CHI +0.7 pts
Q2 0:31 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% IND +2.1 pts
Q3 12:46 False Start on the Colts (Mo Alie-Cox), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CHI +0.8 pts
Q3 12:46 False Start on the Colts (Jonathan Taylor), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CHI +0.2 pts
Q3 10:05 Roughing the Kicker on the Colts, 15 yards, wiping out the play +8% CHI +2.8 pts
Q3 9:46 Illegal Shift on the Colts, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% CHI +1.2 pts
Q3 3:40 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bears (Daniel Hardy), 5 yards · pre-snap +8% IND +2.8 pts
Q4 8:45 Encroachment on the Colts (Zaire Franklin), 2 yards · pre-snap +1% CHI +0.3 pts
Q4 8:21 Illegal Use of Hands on the Bears (Andrew Billings), 5 yards +3% IND +0.8 pts

Bears penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 46% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:38 C. Santos missed a 56-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him, 31 of 42 from 45+ before +9% IND CHI: Punt
2 Q2 13:02 The Colts converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +7% IND IND: Turnover
3 Q2 1:46 The Bears were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +9% IND CHI: End of half
4 Q2 0:31 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% IND IND: Turnover
5 Q3 10:05 Roughing the Kicker on the Colts, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% CHI CHI: Turnover
6 Q3 7:30 The Colts were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +9% CHI IND: Touchdown
7 Q3 3:40 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bears (Daniel Hardy), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 1 flag in 221 snaps before, position avg 1 per 297 +8% IND IND: Touchdown
8 Q4 6:52 The Bears fumbled and the Colts recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% IND CHI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • DeForest Buckner (IND DT), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Blake Freeland (IND T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Samson Ebukam (IND DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Julius Brents (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Patrick Scales (CHI LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 4% · Colts 96%

Final margin
Colts by 5
Luck in points
6.3 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 11.3
Replay with same day's form
Bears 31% · Colts 69% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2024 games · Bears · Colts

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