luckadjusted

Week 3 2024 · September 22, 2024

Eagles at Saints, Week 3 2024: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Saints 15–12, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 9 of 10. The Saints had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 3.3 points to the Saints.

An off day for the Saints: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Eagles they would win 52% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Saints were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:55 left): the Saints threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 42 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 15
New Orleans Saints 12

September 22, 2024 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Saints −2.5

Luck index +10 Eagles about even · −10 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 9, Saints win 1.

  1. 1 PHI 44 NO 13
  2. 2 PHI 23 NO 0
  3. 3 PHI 32 NO 13
  4. 4 PHI 22 NO 6
  5. 5 PHI 30 NO 17
  6. 6 PHI 23 NO 13
  7. 7 PHI 17 NO 10
  8. 8 PHI 23 NO 17
  9. 9 PHI 16 NO 14
  10. 10 PHI 7 NO 13

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Saints

Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Eagles they would win 52% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%.

42 points apart for the Saints: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Eagles offenseEPA per play gained +0.20 +0.14 better by 0.06
Eagles defenseEPA per play allowed −0.19 +0.11 better by 0.30
Saints offenseEPA per play gained −0.19 +0.11 worse by 0.30
Saints defenseEPA per play allowed +0.20 +0.07 worse by 0.13

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 90% of them, Saints 10%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+48.2%
Eagles by 9–1623.1%
Eagles by 1–818.7%
Level after regulation2.0%
Saints by 1–85.5%
Saints by 9–162.1%
Saints by 17+0.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Eagles by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Eagles by 9.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Grupe, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • B. Grupe, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • J. Elliott, 60 yds missed · 62% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 84%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 15:00 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedThe Eagles threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 52% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +20% NO PHI: Turnover
2 Q2 0:14 The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +15% NO PHI: Turnover on downs
3 Q3 8:46 The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +14% NO PHI: Punt
4 Q4 15:00 The Saints were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +12% PHI NO: Field goal
5 Q4 6:47 J. Elliott missed 60-yard field goalKicks · 62% expected for him, 28 of 39 from 45+ before +20% NO PHI: Touchdown
6 Q4 1:16 The Eagles converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +39% PHI PHI: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:01 The Eagles’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +12% PHI PHI: End of game
8 Q4 0:55 The Saints threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +42% PHI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ryan Ramczyk (NO T), out (IR) · 1.6 pts
  • A.T. Perry (NO WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • A.J. Brown (PHI WR), out · 1.7 pts
  • James Bradberry (PHI CB), out (IR) · 1.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 94% · Saints 6%

Final margin
Eagles by 3
Luck in points
6.2 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 9.2
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 90% · Saints 10% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2024 games · Eagles · Saints

More from Week 3 2024