luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 3 2024 · September 22, 2024

Eagles at Saints, Week 3 2024: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Saints 15–12, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 9 of 10. The Saints had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 23 points of win probability to the Saints.

An off day for the Saints: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Eagles they would win 52% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Saints were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:55 left): the Saints threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 35 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 15
New Orleans Saints 12

September 22, 2024 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Saints −2.5

Luck index +7 Eagles about even · −7 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 9, Saints win 1.

  1. 1 PHI 37 NO 7
  2. 2 PHI 27 NO 3
  3. 3 PHI 26 NO 7
  4. 4 PHI 37 NO 21
  5. 5 PHI 33 NO 20
  6. 6 PHI 24 NO 14
  7. 7 PHI 17 NO 10
  8. 8 PHI 29 NO 24
  9. 9 PHI 13 NO 10
  10. 10 PHI 7 NO 13

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Saints

Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Eagles they would win 52% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%.

45 points apart for the Saints: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Eagles offenseEPA per play gained +0.20 +0.14 better by 0.06
Eagles defenseEPA per play allowed −0.19 +0.11 better by 0.30
Saints offenseEPA per play gained −0.19 +0.11 worse by 0.30
Saints defenseEPA per play allowed +0.20 +0.07 worse by 0.13

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 93% of them, Saints 7%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+53.3%
Eagles by 9–1623.2%
Eagles by 1–816.2%
Level after regulation0.5%
Saints by 1–85.1%
Saints by 9–161.5%
Saints by 17+0.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.8 points to the Saints: the final margin was Eagles by 3, without the luck Eagles by 8.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Grupe, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • B. Grupe, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • J. Elliott, 60 yds missed · 65% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Eagles 7 for 45 yards, Saints 3 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:51 Encroachment on the Eagles (Josh Sweat), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NO +0.5 pts
Q1 7:53 False Start on the Saints (Foster Moreau), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PHI +0.6 pts
Q2 12:03 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +0.7 pts
Q2 2:00 Offensive Holding on the Eagles (Johnny Wilson), 10 yards +3% NO +0.8 pts
Q2 0:58 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% NO +0.5 pts
Q3 12:07 Offensive Holding on the Eagles (Grant Calcaterra), 10 yards +5% NO +1.4 pts
Q3 4:31 Illegal Formation on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NO +0.9 pts
Q3 1:37 Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +6% NO +0.9 pts
Q4 5:24 Unnecessary Roughness on the Saints, 15 yards +13% PHI +1.4 pts
Q4 1:34 Illegal Use of Hands on the Saints (Alontae Taylor), 5 yards +1% NO +0.4 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 84%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:14 The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +15% NO PHI: Turnover on downs
2 Q3 8:46 The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +12% NO PHI: Punt
3 Q4 15:00 The Saints were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +12% PHI NO: Field goal
4 Q4 6:47 J. Elliott missed a 60-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 28 of 39 from 45+ before +21% NO PHI: Touchdown
5 Q4 5:24 The Saints converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedUnnecessary Roughness on the Saints, 15 yardsJudgment calls +11% PHI NO: Touchdown
6 Q4 1:16 The Eagles converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +21% PHI PHI: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:01 The Eagles’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +12% PHI PHI: End of game
8 Q4 0:55 The Saints threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +35% PHI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ryan Ramczyk (NO T), out (IR) · 1.6 pts
  • A.T. Perry (NO WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • A.J. Brown (PHI WR), out · 1.7 pts
  • James Bradberry (PHI CB), out (IR) · 1.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 94% · Saints 6%

Final margin
Eagles by 3
Luck in points
5.8 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 8.8
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 93% · Saints 7% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2024 games · Eagles · Saints

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