luckadjusted

Week 3 2024 · September 22, 2024

Chargers at Steelers, Week 3 2024: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Chargers 20–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Steelers win 9 of 10. The Chargers had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Chargers.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:06 left): C. Boswell missed 62-yard field goal, worth 19 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 10
Pittsburgh Steelers 20

September 22, 2024 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −3

Luck index +14 Steelers about even · −14 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 1, Steelers win 9.

  1. 1 LAC 10 PIT 3
  2. 2 LAC 15 PIT 17
  3. 3 LAC 10 PIT 13
  4. 4 LAC 7 PIT 13
  5. 5 LAC 13 PIT 22
  6. 6 LAC 7 PIT 19
  7. 7 LAC 3 PIT 16
  8. 8 LAC 3 PIT 19
  9. 9 LAC 7 PIT 26
  10. 10 LAC 7 PIT 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 14% of them, Steelers 86%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+0.6%
Chargers by 9–163.6%
Chargers by 1–89.4%
Level after regulation1.0%
Steelers by 1–826.7%
Steelers by 9–1623.4%
Steelers by 17+35.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Steelers by 10. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Steelers by 6.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Dicker, 28 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. Boswell, 62 yds missed · 62% expected
  • C. Boswell, 38 yds made · 92% expected
  • C. Boswell, 30 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 34% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 10:21 The Steelers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +10% PIT PIT: Touchdown
2 Q2 0:06 C. Boswell missed 62-yard field goalKicks · 62% expected for him, 45 of 56 from 45+ before +19% LAC PIT: Field goal
3 Q3 12:13 Illegal Formation on the Steelers (Cordarrelle Patterson), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 6 flags in 2037 snaps before, position avg 1 per 860 +12% LAC LAC: Punt
4 Q3 11:08 The Steelers converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +13% PIT PIT: Field goal
5 Q3 8:55 The Chargers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% LAC LAC: Punt
6 Q3 2:49 Roughing the Passer on the Chargers (Khalil Mack), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 4181 snaps before, position avg 1 per 297 +8% PIT PIT: Field goal
7 Q4 12:51 The Chargers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +7% LAC LAC: Punt
8 Q4 10:33 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +9% PIT LAC: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Isaac Seumalo (PIT G), out · 0.3 pts
  • MyCole Pruitt (PIT TE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Josh Palmer (LAC WR), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 15% · Steelers 85%

Final margin
Steelers by 10
Luck in points
3.6 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 6.4
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 14% · Steelers 86% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2024 games · Chargers · Steelers

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