luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 3 2024 · September 22, 2024

Chargers at Steelers, Week 3 2024: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Chargers 20–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Steelers win 9 of 10. The Chargers had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:06 left): C. Boswell missed a 62-yard field goal, worth 17 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 10
Pittsburgh Steelers 20

September 22, 2024 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −3

Luck index +13 Steelers about even · −13 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 1, Steelers win 9.

  1. 1 LAC 21 PIT 16
  2. 2 LAC 22 PIT 24
  3. 3 LAC 9 PIT 13
  4. 4 LAC 13 PIT 20
  5. 5 LAC 17 PIT 26
  6. 6 LAC 7 PIT 17
  7. 7 LAC 20 PIT 34
  8. 8 LAC 7 PIT 24
  9. 9 LAC 6 PIT 27
  10. 10 LAC 2 PIT 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 13% of them, Steelers 87%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+0.4%
Chargers by 9–163.3%
Chargers by 1–89.0%
Level after regulation0.9%
Steelers by 1–827.1%
Steelers by 9–1624.4%
Steelers by 17+34.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.2 points to the Chargers: the final margin was Steelers by 10, without the luck Steelers by 12.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Dicker, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Boswell, 62 yds missed · 55% expected
  • C. Boswell, 38 yds made · 93% expected
  • C. Boswell, 30 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chargers 7 for 69 yards, Steelers 3 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:49 Illegal Formation on the Chargers (Stone Smartt), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PIT +0.3 pts
Q1 9:18 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% PIT +2.6 pts
Q3 12:39 Face Mask on the Chargers (Derwin James), 15 yards +7% PIT +1.2 pts
Q3 12:13 Illegal Formation on the Steelers (Cordarrelle Patterson), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +12% LAC +1.5 pts
Q3 8:09 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Chargers (Deane Leonard), 5 yards +2% PIT +0.5 pts
Q3 4:28 Unnecessary Roughness on the Chargers (Derwin James), 15 yards +4% PIT +1.2 pts
Q3 2:49 Roughing the Passer on the Chargers (Khalil Mack), 15 yards +8% PIT +1.8 pts
Q3 2:23 Illegal Formation on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% LAC +1.1 pts
Q3 0:33 Defensive Holding on the Chargers (Asante Samuel Jr.), 4 yards, wiping out the play +6% PIT +1.3 pts
Q4 11:28 Defensive Delay of Game on the Steelers (Keeanu Benton), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% LAC +0.5 pts

Chargers penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 34% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:18 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% PIT PIT: Punt
2 Q2 10:21 The Steelers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +7% PIT PIT: Touchdown
3 Q2 1:03 The Chargers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +8% LAC LAC: Punt
4 Q2 0:06 C. Boswell missed a 62-yard field goalKicks · 55% expected for him, 45 of 56 from 45+ before +17% LAC PIT: Field goal
5 Q3 12:13 Illegal Formation on the Steelers (Cordarrelle Patterson), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 6 flags in 2037 snaps before, position avg 1 per 860 +12% LAC LAC: Punt
6 Q3 11:08 The Steelers converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +10% PIT PIT: Field goal
7 Q3 8:55 The Chargers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% LAC LAC: Punt
8 Q3 2:49 Roughing the Passer on the Chargers (Khalil Mack), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 4181 snaps before, position avg 1 per 297 +8% PIT PIT: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Isaac Seumalo (PIT G), out · 0.3 pts
  • MyCole Pruitt (PIT TE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Josh Palmer (LAC WR), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 1% · Steelers 99%

Final margin
Steelers by 10
Luck in points
2.2 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 12.2
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 13% · Steelers 87% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2024 games · Chargers · Steelers

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