2024 season · final
Detroit Lions, 2024: game by game
The Lions went 15–2 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 12.8 wins. Luck added 2.2: the 3rd-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 7–2.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.2.
Every game
How often the Lions win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Rams | W 26–20 | 77% | +23 |
| Week 2 | vs Buccaneers | L 16–20 | 84% | −84 |
| Week 3 | @ Cardinals | W 20–13 | 77% | +23 |
| Week 4 | vs Seahawks | W 42–29 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 6 | @ Cowboys | W 47–9 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 7 | @ Vikings | W 31–29 | 48% | +52 |
| Week 8 | vs Titans | W 52–14 | 81% | +19 |
| Week 9 | @ Packers | W 24–14 | 83% | +17 |
| Week 10 | @ Texans | W 26–23 | 56% | +44 |
| Week 11 | vs Jaguars | W 52–6 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 12 | @ Colts | W 24–6 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 13 | vs Bears | W 23–20 | 86% | +14 |
| Week 14 | vs Packers | W 34–31 | 44% | +56 |
| Week 15 | vs Bills | L 42–48 | 13% | −13 |
| Week 16 | @ Bears | W 34–17 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 17 | @ 49ers | W 40–34 | 54% | +46 |
| Week 18 | vs Vikings | W 31–9 | 93% | +7 |
| Divisional round | vs Commanders | L 31–45 | 23% | −23 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Lions’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +1.16 | +13.0 |
| Judgment calls | +0.79 | +6.1 |
| Drops | +0.64 | +23.9 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.56 | +21.1 |
| Injuries | +0.05 | +2.9 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.19 | +4.8 |