2024 season · final
Detroit Lions, 2024: game by game
The Lions went 15–2 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 12.2 wins. Luck added 2.8: the 3rd-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 7–2.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.5.
Every game
How often the Lions win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Rams | W 26–20 | 76% | +24 |
| Week 2 | vs Buccaneers | L 16–20 | 82% | −82 |
| Week 3 | @ Cardinals | W 20–13 | 75% | +25 |
| Week 4 | vs Seahawks | W 42–29 | 79% | +21 |
| Week 6 | @ Cowboys | W 47–9 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 7 | @ Vikings | W 31–29 | 32% | +68 |
| Week 8 | vs Titans | W 52–14 | 64% | +36 |
| Week 9 | @ Packers | W 24–14 | 76% | +24 |
| Week 10 | @ Texans | W 26–23 | 60% | +40 |
| Week 11 | vs Jaguars | W 52–6 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 12 | @ Colts | W 24–6 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 13 | vs Bears | W 23–20 | 86% | +14 |
| Week 14 | vs Packers | W 34–31 | 60% | +40 |
| Week 15 | vs Bills | L 42–48 | 10% | −10 |
| Week 16 | @ Bears | W 34–17 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 17 | @ 49ers | W 40–34 | 38% | +62 |
| Week 18 | vs Vikings | W 31–9 | 92% | +8 |
| Divisional round | vs Commanders | L 31–45 | 46% | −46 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Lions’ favor.
| Kind | Points | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd & 4th downs | +25.0 | +1.47 |
| Drops | +19.7 | +1.16 |
| Kicks | +12.8 | +0.75 |
| Judgment calls | +8.2 | +0.48 |
| Injuries | +3.9 | +0.23 |
| Fumble bounces | +3.1 | +0.19 |
| Rest | −0.2 | −0.01 |