luckadjusted

Week 7 2024 · October 20, 2024

Lions at Vikings, Week 7 2024: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Vikings 31–29, but the Vikings played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 4.0 points to the Lions.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 6:00 left): Return touchdown by the Vikings, worth 62 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Detroit Lions 31
Minnesota Vikings 29

October 20, 2024 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −1

Luck index +68 Lions very lucky · −68 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 3, Vikings win 7.

  1. 1 DET 34 MIN 16
  2. 2 DET 26 MIN 17
  3. 3 DET 27 MIN 24
  4. 4 DET 24 MIN 26
  5. 5 DET 16 MIN 20
  6. 6 DET 13 MIN 21
  7. 7 DET 17 MIN 29
  8. 8 DET 3 MIN 19
  9. 9 DET 17 MIN 37
  10. 10 DET 2 MIN 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 32% of them, Vikings 68%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+5.5%
Lions by 9–168.3%
Lions by 1–815.5%
Level after regulation2.8%
Vikings by 1–824.6%
Vikings by 9–1621.2%
Vikings by 17+22.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Lions by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Lions by 0.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Reichard, 57 yds made · 65% expected
  • W. Reichard, 42 yds made · 87% expected
  • W. Reichard, 48 yds made · 80% expected
  • J. Bates, 44 yds made · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 84%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:29 The Lions converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +9% DET DET: Touchdown
2 Q3 10:47 The Vikings converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +13% MIN MIN: Touchdown
3 Q3 8:33 The Lions converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +10% DET DET: Touchdown
4 Q3 5:50 The Lions converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +8% DET DET: Touchdown
5 Q3 5:43 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Ty Chandler), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 613 snaps before, position avg 1 per 860 +14% DET DET: Punt
6 Q3 1:56 The Vikings converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +11% MIN MIN: Field goal
7 Q4 6:00 The Lions fumbled and the Vikings recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the VikingsSpecial teams +62% MIN DET: Punt
8 Q4 0:19 J. Bates made 44-yard field goalKicks · 84% expected for him +23% DET –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dalton Risner (MIN G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Blake Cashman (MIN LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Aidan Hutchinson (DET DE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Kevin Zeitler (DET G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ifeatu Melifonwu (DET CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • John Cominsky (DET DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Derrick Barnes (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Marcus Davenport (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 38% · Vikings 62%

Final margin
Lions by 2
Luck in points
1.8 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 0.2
Replay with same day's form
Lions 32% · Vikings 68% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2024 games · Lions · Vikings

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