Week 7 2024 · October 20, 2024
Lions at Vikings, Week 7 2024: who deserved to win?
The Lions beat the Vikings 31–29, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Lions win 5 of 10.
Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:19 left): J. Bates made a 44-yard field goal, worth 15 points of win probability to the Lions. The biggest single swing (Q4, 6:00 left): Return touchdown by the Vikings.
Final
 Detroit Lions | 31 |
|---|---|
 Minnesota Vikings | 29 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +52 Lions lucky · −52 Vikings
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Lions win 5, Vikings win 5.
- 1 DET 37 MIN 12
- 2 DET 44 MIN 29
- 3 DET 40 MIN 31
- 4 DET 41 MIN 36
- 5 DET 30 MIN 28
- 6 DET 20 MIN 23
- 7 DET 31 MIN 37
- 8 DET 13 MIN 22
- 9 DET 14 MIN 29
- 10 DET 0 MIN 21
Your call
Did the Lions earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Lions win 48% of them, Vikings 52%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Lions by 17+ | 11.2% |
| Lions by 9–16 | 14.0% |
| Lions by 1–8 | 21.3% |
| Level after regulation | 4.9% |
| Vikings by 1–8 | 21.4% |
| Vikings by 9–16 | 15.3% |
| Vikings by 17+ | 11.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- W. Reichard, 57 yds made · 68% expected
- W. Reichard, 42 yds made · 88% expected
- W. Reichard, 48 yds made · 79% expected
- J. Bates, 44 yds made · 85% expected
Penalties: Lions 8 for 49 yards, Vikings 8 for 59 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:27 | Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards | +3% MIN +1.7 pts |
| Q1 8:03 | Defensive Holding on the Lions (Carlton Davis), 5 yards | +1% MIN +0.6 pts |
| Q1 4:12 | False Start on the Lions, 4 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIN +0.8 pts |
| Q1 3:58 | Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Johnny Mundt), 10 yards | +1% DET +1.2 pts |
| Q1 3:06 | Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 5 yards | +1% DET +0.7 pts |
| Q1 2:11 | False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DET +0.4 pts |
| Q2 13:42 | Illegal Formation on the Lions (Ennis Rakestraw), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIN +0.5 pts |
| Q2 12:20 | Illegal Formation on the Vikings, 4 yards · pre-snap | +2% DET +0.7 pts |
| Q2 11:24 | Roughing the Passer on the Vikings (Ivan Pace), 15 yards | +6% DET +1.7 pts |
| Q2 9:47 | False Start on the Lions (David Montgomery), 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% MIN +0.6 pts |
| Q3 9:36 | Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards | +5% MIN +1.5 pts |
| Q3 7:48 | False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% MIN +0.7 pts |
| Q3 5:43 | Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Ty Chandler), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +14% DET +3.8 pts |
| Q3 3:51 | Offensive Offside on the Vikings (Jordan Addison), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +3% DET +1.2 pts |
| Q4 8:45 | Illegal Contact on the Lions (Carlton Davis), 5 yards | +2% MIN +0.6 pts |
| Q4 0:02 | Illegal Formation on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DET +0.2 pts |
Lions penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Vikings’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 84%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 0:29 | The Lions converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +6% DET | DET: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 10:47 | The Vikings converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +9% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 8:33 | The Lions converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +10% DET | DET: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 5:43 | Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Ty Chandler), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 613 snaps before, position avg 1 per 860 | +14% DET | DET: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 1:56 | The Vikings converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +10% MIN | MIN: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 6:00 | The Lions fumbled and the Vikings recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the VikingsSpecial teams | +63% MIN | DET: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 2:46 | The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +8% DET | MIN: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 0:19 | The game turned hereJ. Bates made a 44-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him | +15% DET | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Dalton Risner (MIN G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Blake Cashman (MIN LB), out · 0.3 pts
- Aidan Hutchinson (DET DE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
- Kevin Zeitler (DET G), out · 0.4 pts
- Ifeatu Melifonwu (DET CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- John Cominsky (DET DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Derrick Barnes (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Marcus Davenport (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Lions 49% · Vikings 51%
- Final margin
- Lions by 2
- Luck in points
- 0.5 for the Vikings
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Lions by 2.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Lions 48% · Vikings 52% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2024 games · 
Lions · 
Vikings
More from Week 7 2024
- Broncos at Saints DEN 33–10 · replay 69% for the winner
- Patriots vs Jaguars JAX 32–16 · replay 94% for the winner
- Bengals at Browns CIN 21–14 · replay 99% for the winner
- Texans at Packers GB 24–22 · replay 75% for the winner
- Dolphins at Colts IND 16–10 · replay 77% for the winner
- Eagles at Giants PHI 28–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Seahawks at Falcons SEA 34–14 · replay 57% for the winner
- Titans at Bills BUF 34–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Panthers at Commanders WAS 40–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Raiders at Rams LA 20–15 · replay 90% for the winner
- Chiefs at 49ers KC 28–18 · replay 71% for the winner
- Jets at Steelers PIT 37–15 · replay 65% for the winner
- Ravens at Buccaneers BAL 41–31 · replay 54% for the winner
- Chargers at Cardinals ARI 17–15 · replay 72% for the winner