luckadjusted

Week 7 2024 · October 20, 2024

Bengals at Browns, Week 7 2024: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Browns 21–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bengals win 10 of 10. The Browns had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 3.8 points to the Browns.

An off day for the Browns: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Bengals they would win 35% of the time; with this day’s form, 2%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Bengals were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 15:00 left): Return touchdown by the Bengals, worth 24 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 21
Cleveland Browns 14

October 20, 2024 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −5.5

Luck index +2 Bengals about even · −2 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 10, Browns win 0.

  1. 1 CIN 44 CLE 6
  2. 2 CIN 37 CLE 6
  3. 3 CIN 37 CLE 10
  4. 4 CIN 37 CLE 14
  5. 5 CIN 26 CLE 6
  6. 6 CIN 21 CLE 3
  7. 7 CIN 20 CLE 6
  8. 8 CIN 20 CLE 9
  9. 9 CIN 35 CLE 28
  10. 10 CIN 20 CLE 17

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Browns

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Bengals they would win 35% of the time; with this day’s form, 2%.

33 points apart for the Browns: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Bengals offenseEPA per play gained −0.15 +0.13 worse by 0.28
Bengals defenseEPA per play allowed −0.14 +0.14 better by 0.29
Browns offenseEPA per play gained −0.14 −0.01 worse by 0.13
Browns defenseEPA per play allowed −0.15 +0.04 better by 0.18

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 98% of them, Browns 2%. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+77.5%
Bengals by 9–1614.6%
Bengals by 1–85.6%
Level after regulation0.3%
Browns by 1–81.5%
Browns by 9–160.5%
Browns by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bengals by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bengals by 8.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 49 yds missed · 73% expected
  • E. McPherson, 50 yds missed · 74% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 Return touchdown by the BengalsSpecial teams +24% CIN CIN: Touchdown
2 Q1 6:32 D. Hopkins missed 49-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 36 of 50 from 45+ before +10% CIN CLE: Punt
3 Q1 3:47 The Bengals were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +9% CLE CIN: Punt
4 Q2 1:22 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (DJ Turner), 22 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1177 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +10% CLE CLE: Touchdown
5 Q2 0:59 The Browns converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +16% CLE CLE: Touchdown
6 Q2 0:56 The Browns missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the timeRoughing the Passer on the Browns (Ogbonnia Okoronkwo), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 2212 snaps before, position avg 1 per 297 +9% CIN CLE: End of half
7 Q3 12:46 Illegal Shift on the Browns, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +7% CIN CIN: Touchdown
8 Q3 10:53 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +12% CIN CLE: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • James Hudson (CLE T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Wyatt Teller (CLE G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • David Bell (CLE WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jerome Ford (CLE RB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Charley Hughlett (CLE LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Trent Brown (CIN T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Daxton Hill (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Trenton Irwin (CIN WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Daxton Hill (CIN FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 89% · Browns 11%

Final margin
Bengals by 7
Luck in points
1.6 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 8.6
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 98% · Browns 2% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2024 games · Bengals · Browns

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