luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2024 NFL season · October 17, 2024–October 21

Week 7 2024: who deserved to win

No winner of Week 7 was behind in the replays. The closest call: the Lions won 31–29 and take 48% of replays.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 7 2024 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 3 of 5 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Seahawks 34–14 @ Falcons 41% 57% Coin flip
Steelers 37–15 vs Jets 41% 65% Deserved
Chiefs 28–18 @ 49ers 43% 71% Deserved
Cardinals 17–15 vs Chargers 47% 72% Deserved
Lions 31–29 @ Vikings 47% 48% Coin flip

Week 7 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Lions W 31–29 @ Vikings 48% +52
2 Ravens W 41–31 @ Buccaneers 54% +46
3 Seahawks W 34–14 @ Falcons 57% +43
4 Steelers W 37–15 vs Jets 65% +35
5 Broncos W 33–10 @ Saints 69% +31
6 Chiefs W 28–18 @ 49ers 71% +29
7 Cardinals W 17–15 vs Chargers 72% +28
8 Packers W 24–22 vs Texans 75% +26
9 Colts W 16–10 vs Dolphins 77% +23
10 Rams W 20–15 vs Raiders 90% +10
11 Jaguars W 32–16 vs Patriots 94% +6
12 Bills W 34–10 vs Titans 99% +1
13 Bengals W 21–14 @ Browns 99% +1
14 Commanders W 40–7 vs Panthers 100% +1
15 Eagles W 28–3 @ Giants 100% 0
16 Giants L 3–28 vs Eagles 0% 0
17 Panthers L 7–40 @ Commanders 1% −1
18 Browns L 14–21 vs Bengals 1% −1
19 Titans L 10–34 @ Bills 1% −1
20 Patriots L 16–32 @ Jaguars 6% −6
21 Raiders L 15–20 @ Rams 10% −10
22 Dolphins L 10–16 @ Colts 23% −23
23 Texans L 22–24 @ Packers 26% −26
24 Chargers L 15–17 @ Cardinals 28% −28
25 49ers L 18–28 vs Chiefs 29% −29
26 Saints L 10–33 vs Broncos 31% −31
27 Jets L 15–37 @ Steelers 35% −35
28 Falcons L 14–34 vs Seahawks 43% −43
29 Buccaneers L 31–41 vs Ravens 46% −46
30 Vikings L 29–31 vs Lions 52% −52