luckadjusted

2024 NFL season · October 17, 2024–October 21

Week 7 2024: who deserved to win

3 of 15 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Lions beat the Vikings 31–29 in a game they win 32% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 7 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Lions W 31–29 @ Vikings 32% +68
2 Seahawks W 34–14 @ Falcons 38% +62
3 Ravens W 41–31 @ Buccaneers 44% +56
4 Steelers W 37–15 vs Jets 53% +47
5 Chiefs W 28–18 @ 49ers 62% +38
6 Broncos W 33–10 @ Saints 67% +33
7 Colts W 16–10 vs Dolphins 76% +24
8 Cardinals W 17–15 vs Chargers 84% +16
9 Packers W 24–22 vs Texans 86% +14
10 Rams W 20–15 vs Raiders 88% +12
11 Jaguars W 32–16 vs Patriots 88% +12
12 Bengals W 21–14 @ Browns 98% +2
13 Commanders W 40–7 vs Panthers 98% +2
14 Eagles W 28–3 @ Giants 99% +1
15 Bills W 34–10 vs Titans 99% +1
16 Titans L 10–34 @ Bills 1% −1
17 Giants L 3–28 vs Eagles 1% −1
18 Panthers L 7–40 @ Commanders 2% −2
19 Browns L 14–21 vs Bengals 2% −2
20 Patriots L 16–32 @ Jaguars 12% −12
21 Raiders L 15–20 @ Rams 12% −12
22 Texans L 22–24 @ Packers 14% −14
23 Chargers L 15–17 @ Cardinals 16% −16
24 Dolphins L 10–16 @ Colts 24% −24
25 Saints L 10–33 vs Broncos 33% −33
26 49ers L 18–28 vs Chiefs 38% −38
27 Jets L 15–37 @ Steelers 47% −47
28 Buccaneers L 31–41 vs Ravens 56% −56
29 Falcons L 14–34 vs Seahawks 62% −62
30 Vikings L 29–31 vs Lions 68% −68