luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 7 2024 · October 20, 2024

Seahawks at Falcons, Week 7 2024: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Falcons 34–14, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Seahawks win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 12:59 left): Return touchdown by the Seahawks, worth 19 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 34
Atlanta Falcons 14

October 20, 2024 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −3

Luck index +43 Seahawks lucky · −43 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 6, Falcons win 4.

  1. 1 SEA 38 ATL 16
  2. 2 SEA 36 ATL 20
  3. 3 SEA 27 ATL 17
  4. 4 SEA 16 ATL 9
  5. 5 SEA 20 ATL 16
  6. 6 SEA 29 ATL 27
  7. 7 SEA 21 ATL 23
  8. 8 SEA 24 ATL 30
  9. 9 SEA 23 ATL 34
  10. 10 SEA 13 ATL 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 57% of them, Falcons 43%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+12.5%
Seahawks by 9–1615.7%
Seahawks by 1–828.4%
Level after regulation3.1%
Falcons by 1–820.3%
Falcons by 9–1613.3%
Falcons by 17+6.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.3 points to the Seahawks: the final margin was Seahawks by 20, without the luck Seahawks by 12.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 38 yds made · 92% expected
  • Y. Koo, 54 yds missed · 74% expected
  • J. Myers, 59 yds made · 64% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Seahawks 5 for 42 yards, Falcons 9 for 72 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:50 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (AJ Terrell), 17 yards +4% SEA +1.8 pts
Q1 11:02 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (AJ Barner), 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% ATL +2.6 pts
Q1 8:58 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SEA +0.6 pts
Q1 8:23 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SEA +0.5 pts
Q1 8:23 False Start on the Falcons (Kyle Pitts), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SEA +0.8 pts
Q1 7:36 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ATL +1.0 pts
Q2 3:56 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL +0.5 pts
Q2 0:17 Intentional Grounding on the Seahawks (Geno Smith), 10 yards +4% ATL +0.5 pts
Q3 7:37 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Falcons (Matt Judon), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.3 pts
Q3 3:32 Roughing the Passer on the Falcons, 15 yards +7% SEA +2.0 pts
Q3 2:39 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SEA +0.4 pts
Q3 1:08 Illegal Use of Hands on the Falcons (Nathan Landman), 5 yards +4% SEA +1.7 pts
Q4 13:33 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Josh Jobe), 12 yards +1% ATL +0.7 pts
Q4 12:02 Offensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Drake London), 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% SEA +2.7 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:02 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (AJ Barner), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 206 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 +7% ATL ATL: Punt
2 Q2 12:48 Y. Koo missed a 54-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 51 of 63 from 45+ before +12% SEA ATL: Touchdown
3 Q2 5:22 The Falcons converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +6% ATL ATL: Touchdown
4 Q2 0:10 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +9% SEA SEA: Touchdown
5 Q3 8:11 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +6% SEA ATL: Touchdown
6 Q3 7:47 The Falcons converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +8% ATL ATL: Touchdown
7 Q3 3:32 Roughing the Passer on the Falcons, 15 yardsJudgment calls +7% SEA SEA: Touchdown
8 Q4 12:59 The Falcons fumbled and the Seahawks recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the SeahawksSpecial teams +19% SEA ATL: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Drew Dalman (ATL C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Lorenzo Carter (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Troy Andersen (ATL LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Riq Woolen (SEA CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Rayshawn Jenkins (SEA SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Stone Forsythe (SEA T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Tre Brown (SEA CB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 98% · Falcons 2%

Final margin
Seahawks by 20
Luck in points
7.3 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 12.7
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 57% · Falcons 43% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2024 games · Seahawks · Falcons

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