luckadjusted

Week 7 2024 · October 20, 2024

Seahawks at Falcons, Week 7 2024: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Falcons 34–14, but the Falcons played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 5.6 points to the Seahawks.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 12:59 left): the Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 9, worth 31 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 34
Atlanta Falcons 14

October 20, 2024 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −3

Luck index +62 Seahawks very lucky · −62 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 4, Falcons win 6.

  1. 1 SEA 47 ATL 27
  2. 2 SEA 30 ATL 20
  3. 3 SEA 20 ATL 14
  4. 4 SEA 29 ATL 26
  5. 5 SEA 17 ATL 19
  6. 6 SEA 24 ATL 30
  7. 7 SEA 17 ATL 26
  8. 8 SEA 13 ATL 25
  9. 9 SEA 30 ATL 47
  10. 10 SEA 7 ATL 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 38% of them, Falcons 62%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+6.1%
Seahawks by 9–1611.6%
Seahawks by 1–820.3%
Level after regulation2.9%
Falcons by 1–827.8%
Falcons by 9–1616.3%
Falcons by 17+15.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Seahawks by 20. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Seahawks by 10.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • Y. Koo, 54 yds missed · 73% expected
  • J. Myers, 59 yds made · 61% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:02 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (AJ Barner), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 206 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 +7% ATL ATL: Punt
2 Q2 12:48 Y. Koo missed 54-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 51 of 63 from 45+ before +12% SEA ATL: Touchdown
3 Q2 11:21 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +8% SEA SEA: Touchdown
4 Q2 5:22 The Falcons converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +8% ATL ATL: Touchdown
5 Q2 0:10 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +16% SEA SEA: Touchdown
6 Q3 7:47 The Falcons converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +12% ATL ATL: Touchdown
7 Q3 5:03 The Seahawks converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +7% SEA SEA: Touchdown
8 Q4 12:59 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedThe Falcons fumbled and the Seahawks recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the SeahawksSpecial teams +31% SEA ATL: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Drew Dalman (ATL C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Lorenzo Carter (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Troy Andersen (ATL LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Riq Woolen (SEA CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Rayshawn Jenkins (SEA SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Stone Forsythe (SEA T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Tre Brown (SEA CB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 91% · Falcons 9%

Final margin
Seahawks by 20
Luck in points
9.4 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 10.6
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 38% · Falcons 62% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2024 games · Seahawks · Falcons

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