Week 7 2024 · October 20, 2024
Jets at Steelers, Week 7 2024: who deserved to win?
The Steelers beat the Jets 37–15, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Jets had the bounces: drops alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Jets.
Before kickoff the Jets were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 7:39 left): the Jets were intercepted on a well-placed throw, worth 11 points of win probability to the Steelers.
Final
 New York Jets | 15 |
|---|---|
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 37 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +35 Steelers lucky · −35 Jets
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Jets win 3, Steelers win 7.
- 1 NYJ 26 PIT 10
- 2 NYJ 22 PIT 14
- 3 NYJ 16 PIT 13
- 4 NYJ 15 PIT 17
- 5 NYJ 33 PIT 38
- 6 NYJ 13 PIT 20
- 7 NYJ 28 PIT 40
- 8 NYJ 10 PIT 26
- 9 NYJ 17 PIT 37
- 10 NYJ 3 PIT 32
Your call
Did the Steelers earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Jets win 35% of them, Steelers 65%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 22.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Jets by 17+ | 5.4% |
| Jets by 9–16 | 9.6% |
| Jets by 1–8 | 18.2% |
| Level after regulation | 2.3% |
| Steelers by 1–8 | 27.2% |
| Steelers by 9–16 | 17.7% |
| Steelers by 17+ | 19.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Boswell, 46 yds made · 85% expected
- C. Boswell, 29 yds made · 98% expected
- C. Boswell, 21 yds made · 100% expected
- G. Zuerlein, 35 yds blocked · 93% expected
Penalties: Jets 5 for 50 yards, Steelers 4 for 36 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:08 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers (Larry Ogunjobi), 15 yards | +5% NYJ +1.8 pts |
| Q2 14:45 | Offensive Holding on the Jets, 6 yards | +4% PIT +1.2 pts |
| Q2 12:04 | Offensive Holding on the Steelers (Pat Freiermuth), 10 yards | +2% NYJ +0.9 pts |
| Q2 5:29 | Leverage on the Steelers (Minkah Fitzpatrick), 1 yard | 0% NYJ +0.1 pts |
| Q2 4:45 | Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards | +1% NYJ +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:43 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Sauce Gardner), 29 yards | +7% PIT +2.1 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | False Start on the Jets (Garrett Wilson), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% PIT +0.4 pts |
| Q4 11:40 | False Start on the Jets (Garrett Wilson), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PIT +0.4 pts |
| Q4 9:44 | False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PIT +0.6 pts |
Jets penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Steelers’ chance of winning
As low as 16% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:22 | C. Austin dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 30 catchable balls before this | +7% NYJ | PIT: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 0:43 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Sauce Gardner), 29 yardsJudgment calls · 10 flags in 2642 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 | +7% PIT | PIT: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 12:02 | The Steelers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +7% PIT | PIT: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 10:08 | The Steelers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +6% PIT | PIT: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 7:39 | The Jets were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws | +11% PIT | NYJ: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q3 3:36 | The Jets converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +5% NYJ | NYJ: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q3 2:42 | G. Zuerlein had a 35-yard field goal blockedKicks · 93% expected for him | +5% PIT | NYJ: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q3 1:19 | The Steelers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +5% PIT | PIT: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Zach Frazier (PIT C), out · 0.5 pts
- James Daniels (PIT G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- D.J. Reed (NYJ CB), out · 0.7 pts
- Chuck Clark (NYJ SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Carter Warren (NYJ T), out · 0.4 pts
- Kenny Yeboah (NYJ TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Michael Carter II (NYJ CB), out · 0.2 pts
- Jermaine Johnson II (NYJ LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Jets 0% · Steelers 100%
- Final margin
- Steelers by 22
- Luck in points
- 4.2 for the Steelers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Steelers by 17.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Jets 35% · Steelers 65% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2024 games · 
Jets · 
Steelers
More from Week 7 2024
- Broncos at Saints DEN 33–10 · replay 69% for the winner
- Patriots vs Jaguars JAX 32–16 · replay 94% for the winner
- Bengals at Browns CIN 21–14 · replay 99% for the winner
- Lions at Vikings DET 31–29 · replay 48% for the winner
- Texans at Packers GB 24–22 · replay 75% for the winner
- Dolphins at Colts IND 16–10 · replay 77% for the winner
- Eagles at Giants PHI 28–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Seahawks at Falcons SEA 34–14 · replay 57% for the winner
- Titans at Bills BUF 34–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Panthers at Commanders WAS 40–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Raiders at Rams LA 20–15 · replay 90% for the winner
- Chiefs at 49ers KC 28–18 · replay 71% for the winner
- Ravens at Buccaneers BAL 41–31 · replay 54% for the winner
- Chargers at Cardinals ARI 17–15 · replay 72% for the winner