luckadjusted

Week 7 2024 · October 20, 2024

Jets at Steelers, Week 7 2024: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Jets 37–15, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Steelers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 4.6 points to the Steelers.

Before kickoff the Jets were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 12:02 left): the Steelers converted 3rd & 7, worth 13 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

New York Jets 15
Pittsburgh Steelers 37

October 20, 2024 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Jets −3

Luck index +47 Steelers lucky · −47 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 5, Steelers win 5.

  1. 1 NYJ 31 PIT 10
  2. 2 NYJ 34 PIT 20
  3. 3 NYJ 23 PIT 14
  4. 4 NYJ 13 PIT 9
  5. 5 NYJ 14 PIT 12
  6. 6 NYJ 20 PIT 22
  7. 7 NYJ 14 PIT 20
  8. 8 NYJ 25 PIT 34
  9. 9 NYJ 16 PIT 30
  10. 10 NYJ 7 PIT 29

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 47% of them, Steelers 53%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 22.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+10.9%
Jets by 9–1614.1%
Jets by 1–820.1%
Level after regulation6.3%
Steelers by 1–822.5%
Steelers by 9–1615.2%
Steelers by 17+10.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Steelers by 22. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Steelers by 17.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 46 yds made · 85% expected
  • C. Boswell, 29 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. Boswell, 21 yds made · 100% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 35 yds blocked · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 16% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:43 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +5% NYJ PIT: Field goal
2 Q1 8:22 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expectedC. Austin dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 30 catchable balls before this +10% NYJ PIT: Punt
3 Q2 5:34 The Jets converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +5% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
4 Q2 0:43 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Sauce Gardner), 29 yardsJudgment calls · 10 flags in 2642 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +7% PIT PIT: Touchdown
5 Q3 12:02 The Steelers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +13% PIT PIT: Field goal
6 Q3 10:08 The Steelers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +8% PIT PIT: Field goal
7 Q3 7:39 The Jets were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% PIT NYJ: Missed field goal
8 Q3 3:36 The Jets converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +9% NYJ NYJ: Missed field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Zach Frazier (PIT C), out · 0.5 pts
  • James Daniels (PIT G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • D.J. Reed (NYJ CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Chuck Clark (NYJ SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Carter Warren (NYJ T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Kenny Yeboah (NYJ TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Michael Carter II (NYJ CB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Jermaine Johnson II (NYJ LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 0% · Steelers 100%

Final margin
Steelers by 22
Luck in points
4.8 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 17.2
Replay with same day's form
Jets 47% · Steelers 53% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2024 games · Jets · Steelers

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