2024 season · final
Green Bay Packers, 2024: game by game
The Packers went 11–6 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 12.5 wins. Luck cost them 1.5: the 9th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–5.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.1.
Every game
How often the Packers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Eagles | L 29–34 | 76% | −76 |
| Week 2 | vs Colts | W 16–10 | 80% | +20 |
| Week 3 | @ Titans | W 30–14 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 4 | vs Vikings | L 29–31 | 26% | −26 |
| Week 5 | @ Rams | W 24–19 | 69% | +31 |
| Week 6 | vs Cardinals | W 34–13 | 82% | +18 |
| Week 7 | vs Texans | W 24–22 | 75% | +26 |
| Week 8 | @ Jaguars | W 30–27 | 90% | +10 |
| Week 9 | vs Lions | L 14–24 | 17% | −17 |
| Week 11 | @ Bears | W 20–19 | 86% | +14 |
| Week 12 | vs 49ers | W 38–10 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 13 | vs Dolphins | W 30–17 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 14 | @ Lions | L 31–34 | 56% | −56 |
| Week 15 | @ Seahawks | W 30–13 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 16 | vs Saints | W 34–0 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 17 | @ Vikings | L 25–27 | 22% | −22 |
| Week 18 | vs Bears | L 22–24 | 99% | −99 |
| Wild Card | @ Eagles | L 10–22 | 7% | −7 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Packers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.37 | −2.6 |
| Injuries | +0.21 | +10.5 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.16 | +11.0 |
| Rest | +0.04 | +1.6 |
| Judgment calls | −0.14 | −2.5 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.43 | −4.7 |
| Drops | −0.57 | −6.0 |