2024 season · final
Green Bay Packers, 2024: game by game
The Packers went 11–6 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 12.4 wins. Luck cost them 1.4: the 10th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–5.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.2.
Every game
How often the Packers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Eagles | L 29–34 | 76% | −76 |
| Week 2 | vs Colts | W 16–10 | 70% | +30 |
| Week 3 | @ Titans | W 30–14 | 86% | +14 |
| Week 4 | vs Vikings | L 29–31 | 28% | −28 |
| Week 5 | @ Rams | W 24–19 | 67% | +33 |
| Week 6 | vs Cardinals | W 34–13 | 91% | +9 |
| Week 7 | vs Texans | W 24–22 | 86% | +14 |
| Week 8 | @ Jaguars | W 30–27 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 9 | vs Lions | L 14–24 | 24% | −24 |
| Week 11 | @ Bears | W 20–19 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 12 | vs 49ers | W 38–10 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 13 | vs Dolphins | W 30–17 | 90% | +10 |
| Week 14 | @ Lions | L 31–34 | 40% | −40 |
| Week 15 | @ Seahawks | W 30–13 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 16 | vs Saints | W 34–0 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 17 | @ Vikings | L 25–27 | 19% | −19 |
| Week 18 | vs Bears | L 22–24 | 97% | −97 |
| Wild Card | @ Eagles | L 10–22 | 16% | −16 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Packers’ favor.
| Kind | Points | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Injuries | +14.1 | +0.83 |
| Fumble bounces | +7.9 | +0.46 |
| Rest | +1.6 | +0.09 |
| Kicks | −1.9 | −0.11 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −4.7 | −0.28 |
| Judgment calls | −6.1 | −0.36 |
| Drops | −11.8 | −0.69 |