One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer

The Packers in one-score games

The Packers are 1–0 in one-score games in 2026 so far, after 4–5–1 in 2025. Replayed with the same day’s form, they win 0.3 of those 1. Since 2019: 38–26–1 in 65 one-score games, 39.6 wins in replays.

A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.

Close-game luck by season

One-score wins minus how many of those games the Packers win in replays (regular season).

2026 +0.7 1–0

2025 −2.6 4–5–1

2024 −1.6 5–5

2023 0.0 6–5

2022 −0.9 4–5

2021 +1.1 6–3

2020 −0.2 4–2

2019 +2.5 8–1

Season	One-score record	Replay wins in those games	Close-game luck	Overall record
2026	1–0	0.3 of 1	+0.7	1–2
2025	4–5–1	7.1 of 10	−2.6	9–7–1
2024	5–5	6.6 of 10	−1.6	11–6
2023	6–5	6.0 of 11	0.0	9–8
2022	4–5	4.9 of 9	−0.9	8–9
2021	6–3	4.9 of 9	+1.1	13–4
2020	4–2	4.2 of 6	−0.2	13–3
2019	8–1	5.5 of 9	+2.5	13–3

2026 one-score games

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 2	@ Jets	W 20–17	34%	+66

Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · Green Bay Packers, every season