luckadjusted

2026 season · in progress

Green Bay Packers, 2026: game by game

The Packers went 1–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 1.0 wins. Luck added 0.0: the 16th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 1–0.

Every game

How often the Packers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Vikings L 22–39 55% −55
Week 2 @ Jets W 20–17 34% +66
Week 3 vs Falcons L 14–35 10% −10

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Packers’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Fumble bounces+1.6+0.52
Drops−1.9−0.64
Kicks−3.3−1.11
Injuries−4.5−1.49
Judgment calls−7.6−2.55
3rd & 4th downs−8.7−2.91