Week 3 2026 · September 24, 2026
FTN charting not published yet (usually within 48 hours).
Falcons at Packers, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?
The Falcons beat the Packers 35–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Falcons win 9 of 10. The Packers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 6.4 points to the Packers.
An off day for the Packers: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Falcons they would win 57% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Packers were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 3:47 left): T. Smack had a 47-yard field goal blocked, worth 11 points of win probability to the Falcons.
Final
 Atlanta Falcons | 35 |
|---|---|
 Green Bay Packers | 14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +10 Falcons about even · −10 Packers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Falcons win 9, Packers win 1.
- 1 ATL 37 GB 7
- 2 ATL 31 GB 7
- 3 ATL 31 GB 10
- 4 ATL 34 GB 17
- 5 ATL 28 GB 14
- 6 ATL 24 GB 13
- 7 ATL 19 GB 10
- 8 ATL 26 GB 21
- 9 ATL 31 GB 28
- 10 ATL 20 GB 27
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Packers
Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Falcons they would win 57% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
47 points apart for the Packers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons offenseEPA per play gained | +0.31 | +0.07 | better by 0.24 |
| Falcons defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.08 | +0.07 | better by 0.15 |
| Packers offenseEPA per play gained | −0.08 | +0.14 | worse by 0.22 |
| Packers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.31 | +0.07 | worse by 0.24 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Falcons win 90% of them, Packers 10%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 21.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Falcons by 17+ | 49.4% |
| Falcons by 9–16 | 22.8% |
| Falcons by 1–8 | 16.7% |
| Level after regulation | 1.9% |
| Packers by 1–8 | 6.6% |
| Packers by 9–16 | 2.1% |
| Packers by 17+ | 0.5% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Falcons by 21. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Falcons by 23.0.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- N. Folk, 44 yds made · 84% expected
- T. Smack, 47 yds blocked · 78% expected
- N. Folk, 31 yds made · 98% expected
When it happened
Packers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:18 | The Packers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +9% GB | GB: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 8:21 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Falcons (Harold Perkins), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 79 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 | +5% GB | GB: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 3:10 | Roughing the Passer on the Packers (Brenton Cox), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 410 snaps before, position avg 1 per 304 | +6% ATL | ATL: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 4:44 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Mike Hughes), 34 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 4250 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 | +8% GB | GB: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q2 3:47 | T. Smack had a 47-yard field goal blockedKicks · 78% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before | +11% ATL | GB: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 2:00 | The Falcons converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +5% ATL | ATL: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 1:02 | The Falcons converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +8% ATL | ATL: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 10:02 | The Packers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 64% expected | +10% ATL | GB: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Micah Parsons (GB DL), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Jayden Reed (GB WR), out · 0.5 pts
- Aaron Banks (GB G), out · 0.4 pts
- Zach Bako-Bewele (GB OL), out · 0.3 pts
- Jalon Walker (ATL DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Falcons 100% · Packers 0%
- Final margin
- Falcons by 21
- Luck in points
- 2.0 for the Packers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Falcons by 23.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Falcons 90% · Packers 10% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. FTN charting not published yet (usually within 48 hours).
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · 
Falcons · 
Packers