Week 3 2026 · September 24, 2026
Falcons at Packers, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?
The Falcons beat the Packers 35–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Falcons win 9 of 10.
An off day for the Packers: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Falcons they would win 57% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Packers were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 3:47 left): T. Smack had a 47-yard field goal blocked, worth 11 points of win probability to the Falcons.
Final
 Atlanta Falcons | 35 |
|---|---|
 Green Bay Packers | 14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +10 Falcons about even · −10 Packers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Falcons win 9, Packers win 1.
- 1 ATL 35 GB 3
- 2 ATL 37 GB 13
- 3 ATL 29 GB 10
- 4 ATL 23 GB 7
- 5 ATL 37 GB 23
- 6 ATL 21 GB 10
- 7 ATL 18 GB 10
- 8 ATL 36 GB 31
- 9 ATL 30 GB 27
- 10 ATL 17 GB 23
Your call
Did the Falcons earn it, or get lucky?
Our prediction before kickoff
We had the Packers by 4.7, 64% to win. The Falcons won by 21, a result we gave 36%. The final margin was 25.7 points from ours; 4% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Falcons win | 35.6% |
| Packers win | 64.4% |
| Middle 50%: Falcons by 4 to Packers by 14 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Falcons by 17 to Packers by 26 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Falcons by 21 to Packers by 30 | 95% |
| Exactly Packers by 3 | 8.5% |
| Exactly Falcons by 3 | 7.2% |
| Exactly Packers by 7 | 5.7% |
| Exactly Packers by 14 | 4.4% |
| Exactly Packers by 10 | 4.2% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks and calls move the final margin by about ±12 points. This game was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Packers
Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Falcons they would win 57% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
47 points apart for the Packers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons offenseEPA per play gained | +0.31 | +0.07 | better by 0.24 |
| Falcons defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.08 | +0.07 | better by 0.15 |
| Packers offenseEPA per play gained | −0.08 | +0.14 | worse by 0.22 |
| Packers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.31 | +0.07 | worse by 0.24 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Falcons win 90% of them, Packers 10%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 21.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Falcons by 17+ | 48.1% |
| Falcons by 9–16 | 22.9% |
| Falcons by 1–8 | 17.7% |
| Level after regulation | 2.2% |
| Packers by 1–8 | 6.3% |
| Packers by 9–16 | 2.0% |
| Packers by 17+ | 0.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- N. Folk, 44 yds made · 85% expected
- T. Smack, 47 yds blocked · 78% expected
- N. Folk, 31 yds made · 98% expected
Penalties: Falcons 6 for 83 yards, Packers 6 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:45 | False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ATL +0.6 pts |
| Q1 8:44 | Offensive Holding on the Packers (Christian Watson), 10 yards | +2% ATL +1.1 pts |
| Q1 8:21 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Falcons (Harold Perkins), 15 yards | +5% GB +1.6 pts |
| Q1 5:13 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons (Josh Woods), 10 yards | +2% GB +0.9 pts |
| Q1 3:14 | Intentional Grounding on the Falcons (Michael Penix), 10 yards | +2% GB +0.7 pts |
| Q1 3:10 | Roughing the Passer on the Packers (Brenton Cox), 15 yards | +6% ATL +2.4 pts |
| Q2 4:44 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Mike Hughes), 34 yards | +8% GB +2.3 pts |
| Q3 8:42 | Illegal Contact on the Packers (Brandon Cisse), 5 yards | 0% ATL +0.4 pts |
| Q3 1:02 | Delay of Game on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ATL +0.2 pts |
| Q3 0:55 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 4 yards, wiping out the play | +1% GB +1.6 pts |
| Q4 12:55 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% GB +1.5 pts |
| Q4 3:07 | Illegal Formation on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ATL +0.7 pts |
Falcons penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2026
When it happened
Packers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:18 | The Packers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +6% GB | GB: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 8:21 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Falcons (Harold Perkins), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 79 snaps before, position avg 1 per 441 | +5% GB | GB: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 3:10 | Roughing the Passer on the Packers (Brenton Cox), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 410 snaps before, position avg 1 per 302 | +6% ATL | ATL: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 4:44 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Mike Hughes), 34 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 4250 snaps before, position avg 1 per 210 | +8% GB | GB: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q2 3:53 | The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +5% ATL | GB: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q2 3:47 | T. Smack had a 47-yard field goal blockedKicks · 78% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before | +11% ATL | GB: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 1:02 | The Falcons converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +5% ATL | ATL: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 10:02 | The Packers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +10% ATL | GB: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Micah Parsons (GB DL), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Jayden Reed (GB WR), out · 0.5 pts
- Aaron Banks (GB G), out · 0.4 pts
- Zach Bako-Bewele (GB OL), out · 0.3 pts
- Jalon Walker (ATL DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Falcons 100% · Packers 0%
- Final margin
- Falcons by 21
- Luck in points
- 4.2 for the Falcons
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Falcons by 16.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Falcons 90% · Packers 10% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · 
Falcons · 
Packers
More from Week 3 2026
- Panthers at Browns CLE 21–18 · replay 8% for the winner
- Bengals at Steelers PIT 30–27 · replay 65% for the winner
- Texans at Colts IND 19–17 · replay 25% for the winner
- Chiefs at Dolphins KC 24–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Chargers at Bills BUF 24–16 · replay 70% for the winner
- Patriots at Jaguars JAX 35–6 · replay 93% for the winner
- Jets at Lions DET 31–24 · replay 93% for the winner
- Seahawks at Commanders WAS 33–31 · replay 26% for the winner
- Titans at Giants NYG 12–7 · replay 81% for the winner
- Cardinals at 49ers SF 36–30 · replay 92% for the winner
- Vikings at Buccaneers MIN 23–16 · replay 73% for the winner
- Ravens vs Cowboys BAL 34–31 · replay 75% for the winner
- Raiders at Saints LV 35–27 · replay 47% for the winner
- Rams at Broncos DEN 30–26 · replay 7% for the winner
- Eagles at Bears CHI 27–7 · replay 95% for the winner