luckadjusted
NFL Week 3 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 27, 2026

Chargers at Bills, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Chargers 24–16, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Chargers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 18 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Before kickoff the Bills were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 10:30 left): Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 19 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 16
Buffalo Bills 24

September 27, 2026 · Highmark Stadium · Closing line: Bills −7

Luck index +30 Bills lucky · −30 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 3, Bills win 7.

  1. 1 LAC 38 BUF 20
  2. 2 LAC 21 BUF 13
  3. 3 LAC 17 BUF 14
  4. 4 LAC 10 BUF 13
  5. 5 LAC 17 BUF 23
  6. 6 LAC 26 BUF 35
  7. 7 LAC 19 BUF 30
  8. 8 LAC 9 BUF 24
  9. 9 LAC 13 BUF 33
  10. 10 LAC 23 BUF 51

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 30% of them, Bills 70%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+4.2%
Chargers by 9–168.0%
Chargers by 1–815.4%
Level after regulation4.2%
Bills by 1–824.9%
Bills by 9–1620.8%
Bills by 17+22.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.0 points to the Bills: the final margin was Bills by 8, without the luck Bills by 7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Dicker, 31 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. Dicker, 45 yds missed · 84% expected
  • T. Bass, 28 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. Dicker, 21 yds made · 100% expected
  • C. Dicker, 33 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chargers 7 for 50 yards, Bills 10 for 88 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:44 Roughing the Passer on the Bills (Bradley Chubb), 15 yards +5% LAC +0.6 pts
Q1 3:42 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards +4% LAC +1.3 pts
Q1 2:51 Roughing the Passer on the Bills (Gregory Rousseau), 15 yards +4% LAC +1.8 pts
Q2 8:42 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% LAC +0.6 pts
Q3 10:52 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Chargers (Oronde Gadsden II), 10 yards +2% BUF +0.9 pts
Q3 10:26 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% BUF +1.7 pts
Q3 9:00 Defensive Holding on the Bills (Christian Benford), 3 yards, wiping out the play +16% LAC +4.0 pts
Q3 8:19 False Start on the Chargers (Hayden Rucci), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BUF +1.1 pts
Q3 7:13 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% BUF +0.6 pts
Q3 4:21 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +6% LAC +0.8 pts
Q3 2:15 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BUF +0.5 pts
Q4 11:15 Offensive Holding on the Bills (Dawson Knox), 10 yards +4% LAC +0.9 pts
Q4 10:30 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the play +19% LAC +2.6 pts
Q4 10:00 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards +2% LAC +0.9 pts
Q4 9:36 Defensive Holding on the Chargers (Rodney Shelley), 5 yards +5% BUF +0.9 pts
Q4 7:29 Defensive Offside on the Bills (C.J. Gardner-Johnson), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LAC +0.3 pts
Q4 3:13 Offensive Holding on the Chargers (Hayden Rucci), 10 yards +2% BUF +0.9 pts

Chargers penalties, every game · Bills penalties, every game · All teams, 2026

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

As low as 17% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 10:26 C. Dicker missed a 45-yard field goalKicks · 84% expected for him, 42 of 50 from 45+ before +7% BUF LAC: Punt
2 Q3 9:31 The Chargers converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +10% LAC LAC: Field goal
3 Q3 9:00 Defensive Holding on the Bills (Christian Benford), 3 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 17 flags in 3512 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +16% LAC LAC: Field goal
4 Q3 4:21 False Start on the Bills, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +6% LAC LAC: Punt
5 Q4 12:41 The Bills converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +7% BUF BUF: Touchdown
6 Q4 11:15 The Bills converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedOffensive Holding on the Bills (Dawson Knox), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 19 flags in 5558 snaps before, position avg 1 per 277 +11% BUF BUF: Touchdown
7 Q4 10:30 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +19% LAC LAC: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 5:18 Q. Johnston dropped a catchable passDrops · 11 drops on 175 catchable balls before this +11% BUF LAC: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyrell Shavers (BUF WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Trey Pipkins (LAC G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Elijah Molden (LAC DB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Kayode Awosika (LAC G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Denzel Perryman (LAC LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Charlie Kolar (LAC TE), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 8% · Bills 92%

Final margin
Bills by 8
Luck in points
1.0 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 7.0
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 30% · Bills 70% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · Chargers · Bills

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