2026 season · in progress

Los Angeles Chargers, 2026: game by game

The Chargers went 0–8 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 1.7 wins. Luck cost them 1.7: the 3rd-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 0–3.

Every game

How often the Chargers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Cardinals	L 14–26	49%	−49
Week 2	vs Raiders	L 14–26	29%	−29
Week 3	@ Bills	L 16–24	30%	−30
Week 4	@ Seahawks	L 23–30	19%	−19
Week 5	vs Broncos	L 17–23	29%	−29
Week 6	@ Chiefs	L 6–22	2%	−2
Week 8	@ Rams	L 9–24	7%	−7
Week 9	vs Texans	L 22–44	6%	−6

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −49 vs ARI

Wk 2 −29 vs LV

Wk 3 −30 @ BUF

Wk 4 −19 @ SEA

Wk 5 −29 vs DEN

Wk 6 −2 @ KC

Wk 8 −7 @ LA

Wk 9 −6 vs HOU

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Chargers win chance
Week 10 · Nov 16	at Ravens	Ravens by 9.8	22%
Week 11 · Nov 22	vs Jets	Jets by 0.2	49%
Week 12 · Nov 29	vs Patriots	Patriots by 7.3	29%
Week 13 · Dec 6	at Buccaneers	Buccaneers by 8.7	25%
Week 14 · Dec 13	at Raiders	Raiders by 6.3	32%
Week 15 · Dec 17	vs 49ers	49ers by 9.8	23%
Week 16 · Dec 27	at Dolphins	Dolphins by 3.4	40%
Week 17 · Jan 3	vs Chiefs	Chiefs by 8.1	27%
Week 18 · Jan 10	at Broncos	Broncos by 10.6	21%

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Chargers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Judgment calls	+0.36	+6.1
Kicks	+0.04	−0.2
Rest	−0.05	−2.0
Injuries	−0.18	−6.9
Fumble bounces	−0.20	−10.6
3rd & 4th downs	−0.20	−0.6